Eight teams are within three games of having the worst record in the league in this final year of the heavily incentivized lottery system. I've been harping on this angle throughout my analysis lately, but I don't think we can overstate the fantasy impact of the impending tankathon set to unfold over the final seven weeks of the season.
The trade deadline has passed in ESPN standard leagues, so there are only a couple of ways to augment rosters: streaming from free agency and making starting lineup decisions during huge slates. When it comes to making lineup decisions, I like to leverage the matchup ratings in the table below as an efficient way to create differentiation.
When it comes to free agency and streaming strategies, I think you should look to allocate at least one, if not two, roster spots for streaming players who are earning interim surges in opportunity. With up to a quarter of the league chasing lottery balls instead of gaming for wins, there will be endless rotational shifts and roster chaos in the weeks ahead. It's the time of the season to treat redraft fantasy like DFS in that the lineup news of the day will drive a great deal of value.
In the NBA, the pursuit of lottery leverage can create instantaneous value. Healthy veterans can be found resting on any given slate, such as the Bulls sitting both Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday in Chicago this past Thursday night. The results of prospecting in such scenarios can sometimes prove epic -- like Bobby Portis going off for 38 points.
Using the league's player tracking data as a lens for value, I highlight some of the key players widely available in ESPN leagues from each of the eight teams in the "2018 Sam Hinkie tournament:"
Rookie John Collins is 23rd in the league for rebounding chances during the past 10 games and yet can be added in more than 60 percent of ESPN leagues as of Friday afternoon.
A rebounding chance is defined by the league's tracking software as being within 3.5 feet of an available rebound. I view this stat as an opportunity metric similar to minutes and shots.
Collins isn't getting as many minutes as we'd like for a young talented player on a bad team, but he's still averaging 26.4 percent more rebounding opportunities per game than teammate Dewayne Dedmon (and in fewer minutes). If the Hawks start resting frontcourt vets, Collins could take off.
Congratulations to those who pounced on shares of Elfrid Payton upon him landing with the Suns. Payton is still available in nearly 20 percent of ESPN leagues, and he's likely worth adding even in truly shallow formats.
Payton's fantasy stock in Phoenix is fittingly rising from the ashes of Orlando, as he's second on the team with 15 rebounding chances per game and is being contested on just 16 percent of these opportunities. This means his teammates could be backing off when Payton crashes the defensive glass, given how similar this rate is to Russell Westbrook's.
A few weeks ago, I wouldn't have guessed that Payton could be a difference-maker down the stretch, but here we here.
Mario Hezonja can be added for the cost of a roster spot and a few clicks in nearly 70 percent of ESPN leagues. I'm not entirely bullish on Hezonja going forward, now that Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic return to heavy-usage functions, but I'm also entirely impressed by how well he's played (on offense) lately.
The young wing has averaged 17 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.1 SPG during his past eight games and leads the team with 62.7 touches per game over this sample.
Maybe I'm too dismissive of Hezonja's momentum this season; he still played 27 minutes and lofted 15 shots against the Knicks on Thursday night.
Found at ninth in the league in touches in the paint over the past 10 games and just ahead of LaMarcus Aldridge and Draymond Green with 15.3 rebounding chances per game over this sample, forward Dwight Powell has become a starting fantasy asset (15 PPG and 8.1 RPG during his past seven games).
If Powell is already scooped in your league, maybe take a flier on J.J. Barea, as he's averaging more touches during the past 10 games than Tyreke Evans and he's 10th in the NBA over the past five games with 13.8 potential assists per game.
De'Aaron Fox is found just behind Kyrie Irving and just ahead of Jamal Murray in touches per game over the past 10 outings. There isn't one stat where Fox stands out, but the sum of his busy role could prove valuable when the team rests multiple backcourt vets.
I also dig the role Buddy Hield has played as an elite catch-and-shoot valve for the Kings. There is a glaring lack of volume for Hield in that he rarely tops 25 minutes played, but it's worth noting he has hit an amazing 52.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts this season, the highest rate of the 50 players with at least 1.5 made 3-pointers off the catch.
Exempt from the tanking tag, since Cleveland owns the rights to their pick, the Nets are still sporting the second-fewest wins in the league as we approach March. Even though the team isn't incentivized to lose, this doesn't mean the Nets aren't giving some young players valuable new roles.
I advise adding center Jarrett Allen in deeper leagues, as the Texas product is 12th in the league in touches in the paint during the past 10 games and will get every opportunity to succeed. Allen has started the past 10 games for Brooklyn and has averaged 12.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 0.9 BPG while shooting 65.8 percent from the floor in response to the promotion.
The Grizzlies have been plagued by injuries this season, which has, in part, helped Evans restore his stock in both real and fantasy marketplaces.
Even with Evans back, there is still some unclaimed backcourt usage to consider with Mike Conley sidelined. I don't think we need to rush to add Andrew Harrison, but it's interesting that he joins Marc Gasol as the only other player with a positive result on the Player Rater during the past 30 days. Harrison has averaged 16 PPG on clean percentages in February, and for some context confirming his busy backcourt role, he is tied with Jimmy Butler in touches during the past 10 games.
Zach LaVine could be another league-winner from the waiver wire; he's going to enjoy rare freedom to shoot down the stretch. Don't be surprised if he helps take down a DFS slate or two, either, as LaVine has a fun scoring ceiling given Chicago's new zeal for the 3-point shot.
I'm down to buy into Portis for the stretch run. Since Nikola Mirotic was dealt, Portis has leapt from seventh to first in frontcourt touches for Chicago.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
It's been difficult to find much fantasy fun in San Antonio this season beyond Aldridge and some recent showings from Pau Gasol. There isn't a reprieve on the way this week, as the Spurs play a league-low two games this week and make for a wholly avoidable team for free-agency purposes.
On the other side of the streaming spectrum, the Hawks play four games this week against teams that are either poor on defense or run at a really fast pace. The Clippers have a similarly favorable four-game slate ahead. It's a good week to add Austin Rivers, given Avery Bradley's limiting injury.
The Thunder might have the best fantasy schedule of the entire week, however, as they play a series of teams that struggle in rim protection.
For those hunting pure volume in weekly head-to-head leagues, the Kings claim one of the rare five-game weeks of the season. Good luck guessing which veterans will play for Sacramento, but adding the likes of Fox and Hield makes more sense than ever, given this busy looming stretch.
