The running theme of this section over the past few weeks has been that the Forecaster deals with trends over the course of the season, but injuries and subsequent lineup changes provide opportunities in addition to the Forecaster.
Another theme that I've been hammering in my daily Fantasy Basketball Notes is how big of a role team motivation can play in identifying useful stream options at this point in the season. Teams that are still fighting for playoff positioning are increasingly becoming the only teams that you can rely upon day in, day out to put their best effort forth in every game at this time of year. The New Orleans Pelicans are in the midst of a four-game winning streak despite playing five games in six nights, while on the other end of the spectrum the lottery-bound Atlanta Hawks just gave 24-year-old Dennis Schroder a DNP on Thursday night for rest purposes. Motivation matters.
So, for this week's lead, let's take a look at players from motivated teams (e.g. those playing for playoff position) that have solid Forecaster rankings in the "6 to 7" range for next week as potentially streamable options. Those teams include the Cleveland Cavaliers (7), Milwaukee Bucks (7) and Philadelphia 76ers (6).
Rodney Hood, Cleveland Cavaliers (84.9 percent available): Hood is returning from injury on Friday. He had averaged 11.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.3 3-pointers and 1.2 combined steals/blocks in 28 minutes during the 10 games before he hurt his back, and had recently moved into the starting lineup as well.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks (45.3 percent available): Parker moved into the starting lineup for the Bucks on Friday night, with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined with a sprained ankle. Antetokounmpo's status for next week isn't yet known, but Parker has upside even as a sixth man as he gets fully healthy and engaged. He had scored in double figures in four straight games off the bench prior to Friday, averaging 15.3 points (57.4 FG%, 80.0 FT%) with 5.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.8 combined steals/blocks and 0.8 3-pointers in 24 minutes during those games.
J.J. Redick, Philadelphia 76ers (43.6 percent available): Redick is a shooter with a permanent green light, a distributing point guard in Ben Simmons setting him up, and an offensive anchor in Joel Embiid to play off of. He has scored in double figures in 13 straight games, a streak during which he has averaged 16.3 points (48.9 FG%, 83.7 FT%), 2.7 3-pointers, 2.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
This is championship week in some H2H leagues, deep playoffs for many others, and absolute crunch time for every league. Thus, it is an unfortunate time to be relying upon any player from the Toronto Raptors, as they are the only team in the NBA with only two games this week. Overall, 17 teams have four games, 12 teams have three games and only one has two games. For the second week in a row, the majority of teams have four games, so it is difficult to rely upon players with only three. However, again, the Forecaster helps to differentiate schedule caliber beyond just game count.
The Raptors (1), Orlando Magic (2) and Brooklyn Nets (2) have the lowest team ratings on the Forecaster this week, indicating a combination of weak team offense, tough scheduling considerations and tough opposing teams. The Magic and Nets have three games each, but both are deep in the lottery without any guaranteed megastar players, so if at all possible I plan to fade any player from these three squads on any of my own teams next week.
At the other extreme, three teams have high Forecaster scores: the LA Clippers (8), the Denver Nuggets (8) and the Golden State Warriors (10). All three have four games, but the Warriors measure out with clearly the best schedule ... if you don't take injuries into account. But, the Warriors have been dealing with injuries to all four of their best players, and even though Stephen Curry is probable to play on Friday, there's a high probability that they'll be depending on at least some streamable players for their production next week.
As usual, without further ado, here are a few streaming options from these highly Forecasted teams:
Austin Rivers, LA Clippers (52.6 percent available): Rivers has been in this space for three straight weeks, and he still remains available in more than half of the leagues. During his past five games, he has averaged 18.2 points (46.7 FG%, 61.5 FT%), 2.6 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 3-pointers, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks.
Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets (60.3 percent available): Chandler has maintained his value, even with Paul Millsap's return, but remains under-owned. He has averaged 16.2 points (59.4 FG%, 55.6 FT%), 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.7 3-pointers and 1.5 combined blocks/steals during his past six games.
Quinn Cook, Golden State Warriors (83.8 percent available): Cook has been the player to step up the most over the past couple of games with the entire Warriors squad injured. Curry will return on Friday, and nominally should push Cook out of the point guard slot, but he should play enough at shooting guard to maintain his value with Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant still expected to sit for a while.
