With the season about to start, we collected our fantasy hoops experts one last time for a draft on Oct. 23. We are going to play this league out, so it carries a little more weight than your typical mock, because each pick counts for real.
This is a head-to-head category system, with a weekly "W" earned if you win at least five of the nine categories (points, 3s, rebounds, blocks, assists, steals, FG%, FT%, turnovers) against your opponent.
Let's take a look at the reasoning behind my picks and from the rest of the gang (Rob Peterson, Jim McCormick, Michael Huang, Eric Karabell, Adam Reisinger, Anthony Olivieri, Ross Marrinson, John Cregan and Joe Kaiser) as we get ready for the fantasy hoops season to officially tip off Tuesday.
ROUND 1
I have made no secret of my plan to take Durant first overall in head-to-head leagues, so this pick should have been no surprise. Yes, taking LeBron would be the safer route, but I entered the draft with a game plan and I think I executed it pretty well.
It begins with my expectations for Durant. By my numbers, a healthy Durant will produce 15 percent more fantasy stats per game than LeBron. That will add up quickly once he is at full strength. Plus, KD plays two more games than LeBron when it matters most: in the fantasy playoffs.
Even if Durant misses two months, if I can get my team to .500 by January, I am going to be tough to beat. So I aimed to build a team that I think can hold its own without Durant, with my focus on having my team hit its stride by the All-Star break.
ROUND 2
I was hoping that Chris Bosh would make it to me, in which case I would have drafted him and Kyrie Irving in an attempt to double down on the well-rounded percentages of Durant. Since Reisinger nabbed Bosh right before me, I decided to go for the big men of Drummond and Howard, which should put me in the mix for FG%, boards and blocks every week. I have to punt FT%, which is fine in H2H formats. (In fact, punting a category or two is a recommended strategy in H2H). The only downside long term is that it will waste Durant's epic free throw production, but I'll trade my bigs later if I think that's necessary.
You took a shot at the underrated Lowry in Round 2 and the forever-injured Rose in Round 3. What was your strategy in drafting this pair of guards?
McCormick: "With Anthony Davis as my anchor and plans on getting another big in the fourth (DeAndre Jordan), I felt comfortable in the 'big man' stats like blocks, boards and field goal percentage and wanted to pursue two high-usage point guards. Lowry has become a special fantasy producer with shooting percentage as his only glaring flaw in a weekly category competition. Rose, as our projection profile reasonably explains, has missed 80 percent of his last 246 games and resembles a lottery ticket of sorts for fantasy investors. Takes on Rose's value proved polarizing in our chat among drafters, but I'm clearly on the side that believes there's a worthy section of his outcome spectrum that results in him playing the vast majority of games, providing significant return for a third-round investment. It's an undeniable risk, but at least there are undeniable profits if it works for Rose this year."
ROUND 3
In Rounds 2 to 4, you selected Al Jefferson, Dirk Nowitzki and Marc Gasol, giving you three big-time FG% guys. Was that part of your early plans or just how the draft played out for you?
Cregan: "I always prioritize percentages in the early rounds because that's where you tend to find high-volume shooters who can lock down your FG%. It doesn't necessarily need to be a big man who's going to be a league leader in FG%; it can also be a guard who hits 3s and has a high effective FG%. It's important to look for efficiency early; it gives you breathing room to gamble on upside in the later rounds, like I did with Noel. The mistake I made was not selecting Hayward or Wes Matthews instead of Jrue Holiday. My depth at the swing spots is nonexistent, and it gummed up a couple of my later picks."
ROUND 4
After taking Durant, I was trying to avoid drafting other injured players, but I couldn't pass up on Rondo's dimes and steals here, especially with the buzz that he could be ready for the opener. The value was just too much to pass on, and he should help me battle weekly in assists and steals.
There arguably was no player who had a more shocking drop in this draft than Millsap, who fell to you at No. 37. I actually considered him at the turn between Rounds 2 and 3. Do you think you got a steal here?
Kaiser: "I was happy to get Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard with my first two picks, but I knew the strategy could backfire if I ended up missing out on one of the upper-tier power forwards. So, understandably, I was thrilled when Millsap dropped to me because I felt that PF dropped off a lot after that, and I would have had to opt for a much less versatile option like Derrick Favors or Kenneth Faried. If you look at my team, I targeted players who contributed in many different categories, so Millsap fits in nicely."
ROUND 5
This pick is proof that you need to be willing to adapt your draft plans on the fly and that every player has a good spot to be selected. In our sleepers and busts piece, I listed Kobe as a bust because I felt like his mid-third-round ADP was too high. Here, he dropped to the top of Round 5, limiting the risk that comes with his age. Plus, I like him to cover some of the scoring I'll miss while Durant is rehabbing his foot.
Valanciunas' current ADP is 77th, but you pulled the trigger on him at No. 49. What are your expectations for him in his third season?
Huang: "I chose Valanciunas based partly on projection and partly on need. I had to pull the trigger early because I was low on blocks. With Dwane Casey's defensive schemes and the emergence of scorers such as Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, Valanciunas could be relied upon more for rim protection and third-option scoring. He's an active big, which means he'll get boards, and he's an ascendant player, which means his projections can only go up, barring injury. I think he's undervalued by ADP, with most fantasy players seeing him more in the mold of Nikola Pekovic. I see him as a much better, more physical Nikola Vucevic."
ROUND 6
Again, I was looking to avoid injured players but couldn't pass up MCW's upside at this stage of the draft. If he gets up to speed by the end of November, he will reinforce Rondo's dimes and steals while giving me a shot at an 18 PPG scorer at No. 60. Plus, his shoddy percentages won't matter much in my lineup, since my bigs will cover up his FG% and I already punted FT%.
David Lee's ADP has dipped this year among concerns that his role may be reduced. Do you buy into that concern?
Peterson: "No, I don't buy into those concerns about Lee's role. I'm not looking for him to set the world on fire. While I still may be drafting Lee based on my memories from his last two seasons in New York and two years ago with Golden State, I still see him as a solid nine-boards-per-game guy, and his field goal percentage has always been solid. Plus, I like his position flexibility at power forward and center. In our first H2H mock, I took Lee at No. 40. Here, I got him at No. 53. I'll take that."
ROUND 7
I figure that even if Rondo or MCW has a setback, Jennings should chip in enough dimes and swipes to cover him. If all three are healthy, I will be tough to beat in those categories. Plus, he gives me some 3-point shooting, a category I haven't addressed yet. And like my MCW pick, I think I can cover up his weak FG%.
On the corner of Rounds 7 and 8, you took the plunge on Brook Lopez, who is dinged up again, and J-Smoove, whose role remains uncertain. Were you looking for potential upside plays at this stage of the draft?
Marrinson: "Both picks are risks, for sure. But to get Lopez, who's a 22-7 guy when he's healthy, at the end of the seventh round is highway robbery. If he stays healthy, I got third-round value in the seventh round; that's absolutely a risk worth taking. As for Smith, I'm banking on SVG managing a better rotation, which hopefully allows Smith to play more power forward, which should up his FG% and decrease his 3-point attempts. It's a risk, certainly, but Smith is valuable enough in other categories -- assists and blocks, especially -- that even if he continues to jack up (and miss) 3s, he's worth the eighth-round selection."
ROUND 8
There were several intriguing options available here -- including the two guys who followed me on the turn (Morris, Antetokounmpo) -- but I liked the idea of adding more scoring and rebounding by drafting West and Deng. Regular readers of mine know that I typically target young, talented players in drafts, with the hope I hit the proverbial lotto. But since my lottery luck is tied up in Durant's foot, I opted for a pair of veterans who will be primary scorers on their respective teams and provide scoring, boards and percentages for my team.
Collison has had one of the more wide-ranging ADPs that I've seen in drafts, presumably because it's difficult to project his role with the Kings. What are your expectations for him?
Karabell: "My expectations aren't terribly great. I've depended on him before! Perhaps 13 points, 5 assists and the occasional 3 and steal, and I feel like he'd remain useful even off the bench. In Round 8, considering I also wanted Jeremy Lin, it's worth the risk."
ROUND 9
There is a lot of love for Morris among fantasy pundits, with most expecting a breakout campaign. The big question is how high a ceiling do you see from him this season?
Reisinger: "The simplest way to project Morris would be to look at his per-36 numbers for last year and expect him to turn those into his per-game numbers with the departure of Channing Frye and the accompanying increase in minutes. But what's more intriguing with Morris (particularly as it relates to Frye's role) is if he can get his 3-point shot back. As a rookie, he shot 34.7 percent on two 3s per game, but his percentage and attempts per game have gone down each season since. If he can recapture his rookie form -- something I have faith in -- then he could be an 18 and 8 guy who makes a 3-pointer per game, which is something only Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony did last season."
ROUND 10
I considered taking Jackson earlier to take advantage of the bump in production he should see while Durant is out. How much of a boost do you expect to get from the young guard?
Olivieri: "Reggie Jackson's production should see a definite boost in the absence of Kevin Durant, the league's reigning scoring champion who took more than 20 shots per game last season. Jackson has proven he can get his own shot, a skill lacking throughout much of OKC's supporting cast. The only reason to temper expectations for Jackson is the presence of Russell Westbrook -- who, ahem, wasn't shy even with Durant -- another scoring combo guard who figures to be one of the higher usage players in the NBA."
ROUND 11
I was targeting 3-point shooters on the turn here, but I felt like I could lock up blocks by adding Sanders and Hibbert. I love Sanders as a sleeper this late, because it's not outlandish to think he could lead the league in blocks. As for Hibbert, as pathetic as his 2013-14 campaign was, he still blocked 2.2 shots per game. With Paul George and Lance Stephenson out of the picture, Hibbert will have every chance to prove himself worthy again. Plus, he's a handcuff of sorts for the aging -- and currently dinged-up -- West.
ROUND 12
Gordon's health will always be a concern, but his production is quite worthy of a late pick in the 12th round. He will be a nice bench guy for me, capable of chipping in enough scoring, 3s, dimes and assists to make a difference in any given week. This late in the draft, I won't hesitate to cut him if he flops, though.
ROUND 13
Kind of too late to address my middling 3-point production, but I figured Hardaway was worth a swing here anyway. I think that he is a better fit for the triangle than J.R. Smith, and I wouldn't be surprised if he shines under Phil Jackson, er, Derek Fisher early this season.
