Here's a look at notable offseason moves made by each NBA team and their fantasy ramifications for the 2014-15 season.
Atlanta Hawks
Acquired Thabo Sefolosha.
The Hawks have been one of my favorite recent go-to teams for efficient, under-the-radar fantasy contributors. I'm talking about efficient, undervalued producers such as Kyle Korver (2.6 3PM, .472 3PT%, 1.0 STL) and DeMarre Carroll (1.3 3PT, .362 3PT%, 1.5 STL), who don't do the flashy things but do the little things that show up in the box score.
Sefolosha is the existential opposite of Korver. Sefolosha provides intangibles -- the little things that don't show up in the box score. Intangibles equal fantasy kryptonite. Intangibles are about to vulture 5-10 minutes per game from Korver.
Boston Celtics
Traded for Tyler Zeller and Marcus Thornton.
The 2014-15 Boston Celtics could prove productive territory for Thornton. They have a collection of guards not known for their 3-point volume. They need instant offense off the bench. Thornton has produced before in mediocre-team-constant-green-light situations (see: Sacramento Kings, 2011-12). It wasn't too long ago that he averaged 18.7 points, 2.1 3-pointers and 1.2 steals per game.
I want Kelly Olynyk to succeed. He blends two of my favorite fantasy traits: stretch-5 capability and fantasy avatar comedic value. But an Olynyk slump or injury could open up an opportunity for Tyler Zeller.
Zeller is the kind of player who gets drafted into the wrong environment, gets written off early, gets a change of scenery and suddenly becomes serviceable. He could be a Josh McRoberts-type facilitator in the right situation. (Come to think of it, so could Cody Zeller.)
Re-signed Avery Bradley to a four-year contract.
Because of his lack of elite 3-point production, Bradley has been one of those players whose real-life NBA value outweighs his fantasy value. It hasn't been about a low 3-point percentage (.395 last season), it's been about low volume.
Bradley gets heavy minutes because of his defensive chops. He brings intangibles but backs them up with decent offense. There's another level Bradley can attain fantasy-wise, where he climbs into the 16.5 PTS, 2.0 3PT, 1.5 STL range.
Signed Evan Turner.
I feel as though coach Brad Stevens should be a great fit for Turner. I also feel as though this could be Turner's last chance to become an everyday NBA starter. The motivation and environment should be there. All that remains to find out is to carve out 25-28 MPG, which could be tough in this rotation. He's a nice use of a late pick in deep leagues when you're hunting for upside.
Brooklyn Nets
Traded for Jarrett Jack.
Given 25-plus minutes, Jack is a proven low-end fantasy contributor. Backing up Deron Williams and Joe Johnson means Jack is a rolled ankle away from landing on the Roto radar.
Charlotte Hornets
Signed Lance Stephenson to a three-year contract.
After missing out on Gordon Hayward, landing Stephenson as a consolation prize could be seen as one of the better moves of the summer. Just don't go nuts here and overpay for what should be seen as solid, eighth-round value.
Stephenson turned in a fine, triple-double-packed (an NBA-leading five) 2013-14 fantasy season. But Stephenson's triple-double prowess masked some marked consistency issues. Those issues eventually manifested themselves into a long, slow, sexy dose of oxygen, lovingly delivered by Stephenson into LeBron James' left ear. It was not the kind of behavior that attracts max dollars.
The sad irony was that Stephenson had reversed a three-month statistical slide (15.7 PPG in January all the way down to 9.6 PPG in April) in the first round of the playoffs (15.4 PPG versus Atlanta). But instead of riding into free agency on a nice note, Stephenson blunted his recaptured momentum at the worst possible time.
Just remember, Stephenson finished the season as only the 11th-best shooting guard on the Player Rater, behind Randy Foye and Victor Oladipo.
Signed Marvin Williams to a two-year contract.
Not that anyone noticed, but Marvin Williams dusted off a 3-point shot (1.3 3PM) and sort of logged a comeback campaign in 2013-14. Now, somehow, he's the starting power forward for the Hornets. Don't draft Williams, but he's a player to monitor on the wire in deep leagues, especially H2H leagues where you need to plug and play for 3s.
Chicago Bulls
Signed Pau Gasol.
In one of the most oft-injured, somnambulistic seasons of a career, Gasol still managed to average 17.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. But don't let those stats fool you. Don't let preseason breakouts fool you. If Gasol plays 60 regular-season games for the Bulls, it will be a victory for all involved. And that's 25 percent of his production gone, right off the top.
As Tim Duncan has proved, it's not an altogether unproductive stage. Gasol will make you look very smart for taking him in the middle rounds -- for about two-thirds of the season. Just hope that other third doesn't occur during your fantasy playoffs.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Signed LeBron James.
It has massive NBA ramifications, but fantasy-wise for LeBron, sort of "meh."
If he stayed with the Heat, I had LeBron penciled in at No. 3 overall. As a Cavalier, LeBron remained No. 3. Now, after Kevin Durant's injury, LeBron climbs to No. 2 behind Stephen Curry.
I've been surprised by how many fantasy owners have forgotten about Curry's 2013-14 leap. Curry finished No. 2 overall on the Player Rater at 17.53. LeBron was third at 16.55. It's set in digital stone. If anything, LeBron going to Cleveland widens the gap between him and Curry. And a healthy Anthony Davis could pass them both. (But saying "a healthy Anthony Davis" is like saying "a sweet-shooting Josh Smith," they're the fantasy equivalent of the Manic Pixie Dream Girl.)
Traded for Kevin Love.
I wrote about this in detail when the deal first materialized. I see Love as the Chris Bosh in the deal; his volume and fantasy value will initially lose value, but his value will climb as he improves his efficiency. By "lose value," I mean that Love goes from top 5 to top 12. Post-Durant injury, Love probably sticks in the top 10.
Signed Mike Miller and James Jones.
It's kind of cute these two have decided to work as a duo. No fantasy value.
Signed Shawn Marion.
If LeBron goes down, look Marion up. Until then, pass.
Dallas Mavericks
Traded for Raymond Felton and Tyson Chandler.
Felton and Chandler both get to reap the positive benefits of The Maverick Effectâ„¢, one of the NBA's most restorative statistical salves of the past decade.
Signed Chandler Parsons.
Parsons is due for a mild regression in Dallas. I'm projecting a loss of about a round of value. It's not about Parsons' ability, or coach Rick Carlisle questioning his six-pack. It's about a simple law of dynamics: When you leave Houston, your fantasy value drops.
And don't forget that Parsons also had a high-MPG role in Houston; 37.6 minutes a night with all those extra possessions tend to overinflate your stats.
This isn't a fantasy calamity. Look at it this way: Parsons was underrated the last two seasons. Now his value has been properly set. I'm still looking to take Parsons starting in the fifth round.
Re-signed Dirk Nowitzki.
I know the talk is about managing Dirk's minutes. But that statement looks a little flimsy when you look at the Mavericks' other options at PF: Greg Smith, Charlie Villanueva and Eric Griffin.
Dirk rewarded owners who took a chance on his 35-year old body last season. He's a year older, but he still has the ability to get off his own shot, and he will have that ability until he's in his late 50s. Trust me: Dirk is the German Satchel Paige. And he's still a fantastic value grab in the second round.
Detroit Pistons
Signed Jodie Meeks as a free agent.
Pop quiz: Guess who was the sixth-best fantasy SG last season? (Wesley Matthews. Meeks was seventh-best.)
Meeks proves my old adage that being a competent, reasonably ambulatory NBA rotation player who can get his own shot while toiling on the edges of a Buss-fissured organizational black hole will reap fantasy dividends.
Meeks looked set to be in a timeshare with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, before Meeks suffered a back injury and will be out two months. Thus, it's time for KCP to step up.
Signed Greg Monroe to a one-year qualifying offer.
I want to recommend Monroe so badly, but, Josh Smith. If the Pistons could only deal Smith, then Monroe and Drummond could form a potent, long-term fantasy duo until around 2020. Unfortunately, the market for sociopathic jump-shooters has waned since Antoine Walker left the league.
Golden State Warriors
Signed Shaun Livingston to a three-year contract.
Nice story, but not a lot of fantasy value in this move unless Stephen Curry ends up on the shelf.
Signed Brandon Rush to a two-year contract.
Rush actually has what I call 1&1&1 potential. Given enough minutes, he could average a 3-pointer, a block and a steal per game. He's not getting the needed minutes in Golden State.
Houston Rockets
Acquired Trevor Ariza via sign-and-trade.
In my season-ending audit of PRP$ (Player Rater Points Per Auction Dollar), Ariza clocked in as the best investment of 2013-14 at 11 cents per Player Rater point.
Skeptics declaimed his sudden spike in production as contract-year inflation. But over the past few seasons, Ariza has steadily refined his fantasy production while remaining a real-life NBA defensive force. Ariza's 3-point percentage over the past three seasons: .333, .364, .407.
The truth is that Ariza's statistical growth, John Wall's ascent and Martell Webster's injury had a lot more to do with Ariza's 2013-14 breakout than his contract status. And it's not as if Ariza went to the Bucks to get paid. Ariza is the starting small forward for the best NBA lineup in fantasy basketball. Ariza's defensive chops ensure he'll be leaned on for heavy minutes. Draft with confidence.
(You know who's one of the biggest winners of this offseason? How about Terrence Jones? First Chandler Parsons leaves, then Omer Asik. He still has to beat out Donatas Motiejunas. You'll have to accept some disappointing box scores. His anemic free throw percentage --.605 -- needs professional help. But a lot of indicators are lining up in Jones' favor in 2014-15.)
Acquired Jason Terry.
Terry provides savvy depth but little fantasy value.
Indiana Pacers
Signed Rodney Stuckey to a one-year contract.
Stuckey is one of my least-favorite fantasy players of all time. He is the epitome of what I call an "empty points" player. He's an atrocious 3-point shooter (career .273 3PT%), is lousy from the field (.436 career FG%), doesn't rebound, doesn't produce a ton of steals and he's regressing in assists. Stuckey does do the one thing that tends to lead owners to vastly overrate fantasy players: He scores.
He can score in bunches. Binges. If you pick Stuckey up during one of his upswings and are only looking for points, you'll be a satisfied owner. But Stuckey is the type of low-efficiency, high-volume binge scorer who gets overrated because people tend to remember the big games.
But in Indiana, Stuckey is in a perfect situation to resurrect his career: playing for his next contract on a low-scoring team that's missing its top scorer. There is some 12th-round value to be had with Stuckey, as long as you keep your expectations low.
Los Angeles Clippers
Signed Jordan Farmar as a free agent.
Farmar isn't a draft-day target, but remember who he's backing up. Chris Paul has missed an average of 16 games a year over the past two seasons. Farmar can also play at the two, where he's backing up two other oft-injured players (J.J. Redick and Jordan Crawford).
Los Angeles Lakers
Re-signed Nick Young.
Nick Young has a little "empty points" in him. It's hard to see how Kobe Bryant tolerates his mercurial court presence. But the difference from a Rodney Stuckey in fantasy is that Young has evolved into a reliable 3-point producer.
Now with Young out until Thanksgiving with a thumb injury, it's hard to see him maintaining any draft-day value. Even after Young returns, he should be locked in a timeshare with Wesley Johnson.
Re-signed Xavier Henry.
Projected to be Nick Young's backup.
Acquired Jeremy Lin.
Lin leaves a stultifying timeshare for a more promising timeshare. Instead of having to fend off Patrick Beverley, Lin merely has to bide his time until Steve Nash tweaks a hamstring. Given Nash's injury history, Lin could eventually attain sixth-round value.
And mark Beverley down as one of my favorite sleepers for 2014-15. His atypical stat lines suggest SG in a PG body. But Beverley's a Rocket, which means his off-kilter numbers will still be pace-inflated. I'd be happy to acquire either PG from the ninth round on.
Claimed Carlos Boozer off waivers.
This was a fantasy bummer because Julius Randle was well positioned to make a dark horse run at Rookie of the Year. Boozer will probably end up duplicating his 2013-14 campaign, when he was in a timeshare with Taj Gibson. Something around 13 points and 9 rebounds sounds about right.
Randle isn't draft able in medium-sized leagues, but his upside bears close watching. I get the feeling his playing time will be tied to the Lakers' playoff aspirations. As those inevitably fade, Randle's role should increase.
Memphis Grizzlies
Signed Vince Carter.
Carter's late-career transformation has improbably turned him into a points-last fantasy force. Right now, Carter is backing up Tayshaun Prince, which means there's a good chance he'll eventually get a chance to start.
Signed Beno Udrih.
Projected to be Mike Conley's backup. No draft-day value.
Miami Heat
Signed Josh McRoberts and re-signed Mario Chalmers.
Don't know if you heard, but the Heat made a change at small forward. There's a gaping numerical hole that has to be replaced. Safe to say that it'll be by committee.
McRoberts could be a productive part of that committee. He put up one of my favorite out-of-position-production fantasy lines of 2013-14, hitting 1.3 3-pointers while dishing a Gasol-esque 3.1 assists.
The idea of McRoberts playing alongside Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng is statistically intriguing. The immediate issue is that McRoberts will miss most of the preseason recovering from toe surgery. I still like McRoberts as a high-upside, end-game pick.
We're witnessing how Chalmers prospers in a post-LeBron universe. The early returns aren't encouraging. Norris Cole has looked like the starter so far this preseason. And don't forget about Shabazz Napier. (Can you imagine a worse situation than entering Heat training camp being known as "LeBron's Favorite Rookie?" That's an embossed scarlet "L," writ large in 128-point Comic Sans Serif.)
Re-signed Dwyane Wade.
I know Wade is a hot bet to replace LeBron's stats, but the odds of him remaining on the court for more than 60-65 games dulls my enthusiasm.
Re-signed Chris Bosh to a five-year contract.
I had Bosh pegged as a top sleeper last season. He was the top-20 fantasy player nobody noticed. Why? Because his elite status mined efficiency instead of volume. That lack of scoring led to him being woefully underpriced.
Big names and hype are precisely what leads to bad values in PRP$. It's very, very difficult for a star player on a championship, LeBron-led team to turn in a top-70 PRP$ season. But Bosh pulled it off. Now, Bosh is about to get all the volume he wants.
I'm not saying Bosh turns the clock back to 2009 (his best season; 24.0 PTS, 10.8 REB), but his 2014-15 could be a hybrid line that gets him back up to around 20.0 points per game. Mid-second round isn't a reach for Bosh.
Signed Luol Deng as a free agent.
Deng is a proven commodity at small forward. Replacing LeBron James might lead an observer to think Deng will slide into the lineup and bump up his production to 2009 levels, but in the Heat's lineup, Deng is a third option at best.
Milwaukee Bucks
Fired Larry Drew, traded two second-round picks for rights to sign Jason Kidd.
I never root for anyone to lose his or her job. I never, ever root for anyone to lose his or her job in an off-key, Machiavellian power grab. Let's just leave it at this was a positive fantasy development.
Claimed Kendall Marshall off waivers.
The Lakers screwed up on this one, in reality and in fantasy. Not only did they squander Marshall's solid, low-cost services, but they also allowed the Bucks to add Marshall to an already overcrowded backcourt.
Jason Kidd has said he wants to go with a "committee" at point guard. Have you seen the members of this particular "committee"? Marshall, Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters. That's not a committee, that's an APB for T.J. Ford.
Acquired Jared Dudley.
Ugh. Way to stick the landing, Milwaukee. There goes the Greek Freak's fantasy jump until Tax Day 2015.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Signed Mo Williams.
Williams could produce with an injury in the Timberwolves' backcourt.
Traded for Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett and Thaddeus Young.
I wanted Anthony Bennett in Philadelphia. A healthy Anthony Bennett replacing Thaddeus Young in Philly's high-pace, no-expectation environment could have been one of the great fantasy vengeance rides of all time.
Instead, Bennett has to play behind Thaddeus Young, still on a low-expectation rebuild, but a low-expectation rebuild played at a lower pace.
Despite a budding timeshare at power forward, I love Minnesota's fantasy prospects for 2014-15. Wiggins will receive every opportunity to produce. Ricky Rubio should make a leap in value, shot or no shot. Kevin Martin is a nice sleeper at SG. The Timberwolves' other budding timeshare -- Nikola Pekovic versus Gorgui Dieng -- is an interesting fantasy battle that likely will end with Dieng as the healthier starter.
New Orleans Pelicans
Acquired Omer Asik.
The Pelicans' frontcourt is looking a little more imposing headed into 2014-15. They brought in Asik to do the heavy lifting at center, and a healthy Ryan Anderson returns to open up the offense on the wing. Anderson will come off the bench, but his 3-point production makes him a late round target even at only 25-27 minutes per game.
Asik's fantasy value is limited by the fact that he's never been a robust shot blocker. His best single-season average came in 2012-13, when he only managed 1.1 blocks per game. And that was playing 30 minutes a night. He's a double-double candidate, but with so much upside at center, you might be better off rolling the dice on someone like Nerlens Noel or Gorgui Dieng.
New York Knicks
Traded for Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert.
Here's a trade (Calderon, Dalembert, Shane Larkin, draft picks for Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton) that helped almost everyone from a fantasy perspective. As long as his hamstrings and ankles hold up, I'd grab Calderon in the sixth round without the least hint of remorse. By my Player Rater points-per-auction dollar metric (PRP$), Calderon was a leading NBA senior citizen last season with a PRP$ of 69 cents. Even Dalembert gets to be a starter again, since somebody has to play ahead of Amar'e Stoudemire.
Re-signed Carmelo Anthony to a multiyear contract.
After-the-fact reports stated Carmelo was closer to bolting for the Lakers than anyone anticipated. To say that playing with Kobe Bryant would have been deleterious to Anthony's fantasy value would have been an understatement. Instead, we get to witness the collision of two immovable basketball institutions: Phil Jackson's Triangle and Anthony's Usage Rate (31.7 for his career, fifth all-time).
Coming off perhaps his finest all-around fantasy campaign, Anthony retains top-10 value despite having to transition to the triangle offense. There's no reason to believe the triangle won't eventually work out for Anthony.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Signed Anthony Morrow to a three-year contract.
Morrow could end up gathering some early deep league value with Kevin Durant on the shelf. Like Marcus Thornton, he's a 3-point maven who has landed on the Roto radar at times during previous career stops.
Orlando Magic
Signed Channing Frye to a four-year contract.
I don't like his leaving the fantasy-friendly confines of Phoenix, but Frye always carries fantasy value thanks to his mix of blocks and 3s.
Phoenix Suns
Acquired Isaiah Thomas via sign-and-trade.
Here's a trade that hurts everyone in fantasy not named Darren Collison. I'm still shaking my head in a steady, pulsing disgust over this one. Not only did we lose one of 2013-14's best PG success stories (and Rudy Gay's best running mate), but he immediately becomes the third wheel in a stat-sucking timeshare with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. I can't think of a single NBA player who lost more fantasy value this offseason than Thomas. I'm talking top 30 to top 100 with a bullet.
Re-sign P.J. Tucker to a multiyear contract.
Tucker is the anti-Sefolosha; an unheralded player who played unselfish team basketball while producing fantasy value. Tucker was a top-50 producer in my PRP$ in 2013-14 at 38 cents per PR point. Then Tucker celebrated a little too recklessly, garnering a three-game suspension after pleading guilty to an "extreme" DUI. The attendant bad mojo leaves the door ajar for Gerald Green as the Suns' starting SF, but Tucker should still be a solid end-game pick.
Re-signed Eric Bledsoe to a five-year contract.
Like the move, but you have to downgrade Bledsoe slightly because of his propensity for injury and the presence of Isaiah Thomas.
Portland Trail Blazers
Signed Chris Kaman and Steve Blake.
Kaman will still bubble up for a week or two on the fantasy radar, but neither has much draft-day value.
Sacramento Kings
Rudy Gay exercises his option for 2014-15.
Coming into 2013-14, Gay desperately needed a change of scenery. Sacramento's low-expectation culture proved a perfect fit for high-volume fantasy contributors like Gay (and DeMarcus Cousins). Remember, we don't care about actual victories in fantasy. Sacramento gets it. All that mattered in Fantasyland in 2013-14 is that the dented combination of Gay, Cousins and Isaiah Thomas produced three 20-plus PPG seasons.
Post-Thomas, on paper, Gay should theoretically improve his volume-based numbers. However, the problem is that Gay and Thomas were, by far, Sacramento's best two-man combination. Across 47 games together, the Gay-Thomas combo averaged 63.7 PPG and shot 47.6 percent from the floor. That combo outscored, outshot, outrebounded, and outblocked the Kings' next-best twosome of Rudy Gay-DeMarcus Cousins.
And I'm sorry, but Rudy Gay-Darren Collison (or Gay-Ramon Sessions) just doesn't wow me.
Signed Ramon Sessions.
If Darren Collision reverts to his Mavericks form, Sessions could become the starter.
San Antonio Spurs
Re-signed Patty Mills.
We'll have to wait until January to see if he builds on last season's momentum, as he recovers from offseason surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff.
Toronto Raptors
Re-signed Kyle Lowry to a multiyear contract.
Lowry was the best big-name investment in fantasy last season, outperforming his ADP by 77 slots and posting a PRP$ of 22 cents. I still don't like the Raptors' timeshares at SF and PF, but by keeping last year's roster largely intact, Toronto lays Lowry's overall top-20 fantasy value in cement.
Utah Jazz
Matched offer sheet for Gordon Hayward.
Numerical bullet dodged. It's hard to imagine Hayward playing in a more statistically accommodating spot than Salt Lake City. Charlotte had a nice little role carved out for him, and it had a definite need for some scoring punch on the wing, but playing with Al Jefferson would have dinged Hayward's value.
And Hayward still has room to improve. That mediocre .310 3-point percentage could use some refinement. His Alpha Dog status has yet to be attained. But overall, Hayward is on the rise. I like the reports of Hayward's playing some at the four this season. PF eligibility would be a nice addition to his fantasy resume.
Signed Trevor Booker.
Booker's a hustle guy who can scrape a double-double given enough minutes.
Washington Wizards
Re-signed Marcin Gortat to a five-year contract.
Many criticized this contract as a gross overpayment (apparently by one year). But if you're the Wizards, you had to give Gortat that extra year. Gortat was the organizational domino that absolutely could not fall. Even with the fifth year, it was still a contract that kept the Wizards' cap powder dry for Operation Durant in 2016.
With Gortat staying in D.C., fantasy owners know what they're getting: solid, late-fifth-round value, a top-10 fantasy center and primo copy for your imaginary blogosphere. Gortat produced top-20 PRP$ value in 2013-14 (21 cents). You won't get that kind of value in 2014-15, but Gortat will remain a low-drama, highly quotable No. 1 center.
Signed Paul Pierce to a two-year contract.
As the proud owner of a Calbert Cheaney jersey, I speak with authority when I assure you that general manager Ernie Grunfeld is not the man you want running your draft. But Grunfeld is very good at knowing when to let players walk. And he was right to let Trevor Ariza walk, even with Ariza's PRP$ at a measly 11 cents. It's a big jump from an expiring midlevel exception to four years, $32 million.
When Ariza left, the cognoscenti howled at the Wizards with a vigor not seen since the Gortat signing a week earlier. But I had faith. This is what Ernie does best. He knows when it's time for you to leave. Suddenly, Washington ended up with Paul Pierce on a deal that, again, still keeps their cap powder dry for Operation Durant in 2016.
Pierce isn't going to turn back the clock to 2004. But even a repeat of last season's underrated campaign (12th-best SF, one notch behind Kawhi Leonard) would line him up as a savvy, ninth-round pick. (And by the way, Otto Porter's going to take a nice little leap in 2014-15.)
