Seattle's win over New England on Sunday night was billed as both a Super Bowl rematch and a possible Super Bowl preview, and for once, the latter phrase was not hyperbole. Both teams certainly looked like they were ready to play deep into January, and in the end they were separated by only a goal-line stand.
How likely is it that we'll see these two teams again in Houston for Super Bowl LI? As part of our playoff odds report each week, Football Outsiders also tracks the odds of every Super Bowl rematch. Seattle-New England pops up in 13.7 percent of this week's simulations. Here's a look at the other rematches that have better than 100-to-1 odds at this point.
Philadelphia-New England (XXXIX): 4.6%
Dallas-Denver (XII): 2.6%
Seattle-Denver (XLVIII): 2.2%
Dallas-Miami (VI): 1.8%
Philadelphia-Oakland (XV): 1.5%
New York Giants-New England (XLII/XLVI): 1.5%
Atlanta-Denver (XXXIII): 1.2%
However, the most likely Super Bowl matchup right now would not be a rematch, even though it would be the record-breaking ninth Super Bowl for each franchise. Dallas and New England meet in Super Bowl LI in 14.9 percent of this week's simulations.
In other news, this is the first week that we have two teams with a big fat zero for playoff odds. Although Cleveland and San Francisco are not technically out of the race, neither team makes the postseason in any of our 50,000 simulations this week.
Each week from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the playoff odds for all 32 teams in the NFL. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. New England Patriots (7-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 97.3 percent
The loss to Seattle cut the Patriots' odds of getting the AFC's No. 1 seed, but they still earn it in 54.2 percent of our simulations. That's better than even odds despite the presence of three other seven-win teams in the AFC. Why are the Patriots such a heavy favorite? Not only are they the best AFC team by our DVOA ratings, but they also have one of the five easiest remaining schedules in the league. Meanwhile, the three seven-win AFC West teams will have to all play a round-robin with one another, not to mention the still-frisky Chargers. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos will likely have to run the table on the rest of their divisional games if they want to challenge the Patriots for seeding.
