The 2026 NFL season is at the midway mark, and we're tracking the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LXI. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team postseason field? Which have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?
We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl in February. Plus, we also have the FPI's projections for every game on the upcoming slate and how a win -- or a loss -- might impact each team's playoff chances, independent of other results.
Here's everything you need to know about the playoff picture right now, including which teams are trending up and down in each conference.
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AFC picture | NFC picture
Game stakes
Trending up in the AFC after Week 9: Houston Texans
The Texans are up almost 20 percentage points in our playoff projections compared with last week. The best sign for them heading into Week 10? Houston's offense was on an absolute tear against the Chargers in Week 9. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw five touchdown passes and an interception on passes of 10-plus air yards, which tied for the most such passing TDs in a game since ESPN began tracking air yards in 2006. Plus, the Texans get to face the Browns, Colts and Ravens over the next three weeks.
Trending down in the AFC after Week 9: Cleveland Browns
The Browns still had a 16.4% chance in our FPI projections of making the playoffs post-Week 8, but that fell to less than 10% after their overtime loss to the Saints on Sunday. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders started for Cleveland with Deshaun Watson coming out of concussion protocol, but Sanders also struggled under pressure in New Orleans. The team has taken the most sacks under pressure in the NFL this season (38), per ESPN Research.
Trending up in the NFC after Week 9: Green Bay Packers
Let's preface this by saying the NFC North is in a very good spot: All four teams have more than a 60% chance of reaching the playoffs, per our FPI projections. But the Packers had the biggest jump after their big win over the Patriots in Week 9, climbing roughly 20 percentage points from the previous week. After a 1-2 start, Green Bay has won four of its past five games. The team's 45 points in New England was its most on the road since 2011, which was helped by quarterback Jordan Love finishing 11-for-11 against the blitz -- one shy of tying the most such attempts without an incompletion since ESPN began tracking it in 2006, per ESPN Research.
Trending down in the NFC after Week 9: Minnesota Vikings
Staying in the NFC North, the Vikings took the biggest tumble in the division after a disappointing offensive performance in a Monday night loss to the Bills. Minnesota has lost back-to-back games after a 6-0 start, causing its playoff chances to fall roughly 25 percentage points since Week 7. And the Vikings' road to the playoffs won't get any easier, starting with the surging Packers in Week 10.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 16-18, 2027: Wild-card round
Jan. 23-24: Divisional round
Jan. 31: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 14: Super Bowl LXI (in Los Angeles)
