This is it, the weekend when we decide the two teams that will battle it out for the 2026 NRL premiership, and we have been presented with two cracking games to determine the grand finalists. On Friday night we have an attacking masterpiece when the Dolphins host the Roosters, before Sunday sees the giant-killing Knights facing the biggest giant of them all.
Good luck with your tips.
Friday, September 25
Dolphins vs. Sydney Roosters
Suncorp Stadium, 7:50pm (AEST)
Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Jack Bostock 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Isaiya Katoa 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Tom Gilbert 11. Max Plath 12. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 13. Morgan Knowles Bench: 14. Kurt Donoghoe 15. Ray Stone 16. Francis Molo 17. Connelly Lemuelu 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brad Schneider Reserves: 20. Jake Averillo 21. Brian Pouniu 22. Tevita Naufahu
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Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley Bench:14. Connor Watson 15. Angus Crichton 16. Nat Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Hugo Savala 19. Cody Ramsey Reserves: 20. Egan Butcher 21. Tommy Talau 22. Benaiah Ioelu
Officials
Referee: Adam Gee Touchies: Phil Henderson, Tyson Brough
Bunker: Ashley Klein
Prediction: The Dolphins were very impressive two weeks ago against the Warriors, restricting them to one try, before unleashing their signature attacking blitz after the break. Previously this season they have allowed teams to get away to big head starts before mounting their fightback, a ploy which just won't stand up in the finals. They appear to have taken note and their defensive work in New Zealand was outstanding. They will need to be at their very best once more against the Roosters, who have the attacking flair to cause them plenty of problems.
The Roosters were simply too good for the Sharks last week, after going very close to beating the Panthers the week before. They have plenty of experience across the park, with Daly Cherry-Evans putting in a much better performance against the Sharks in combination with the hard running Hugo Savala. Outside those two, the Roosters backline bristles with attacking weapons, with Robert Toia and Mark Nawaqanitawase in unstoppable form, James Tedesco always lurking, and Sam Walker returning at halfback.
But, as we all know, the backs don't win the big games, they just determine the score, and the Roosters have a pack that is the match of any in the league. Naufahu Whyte, Lindsay Collins and Siua Wong were at their destructive best against the Sharks. Add the menace of Victor Radley and Spencer Leniu, plus the returning Angus Crichton, and there isn't a weakness across the middle or on the edges.
The Dolphins will have to match the Roosters forwards, with Thomas Flegler, Tom Gilbert, Max Plath, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, Ray Stone and Francis Molo all in for a big night. If they can negate the Roosters pack, we all know how devastating the Dolphins halves and backs can be.
On paper this is very difficult to pick. It is one of those games that might come down to a key error, a moment of madness, the luck of the bounce or the whims of the referee's six again calls. Whoever wins, we are sure to be treated to an entertaining clash.
Tip: Dolphins by 10
PointsBet odds: Dolphins $1.74 (-2.5 $2) Roosters $2.10 (+2.5 $1.83)
Sunday, September 27
Penrith Panthers vs. Newcastle Knights
Accor Stadium, 4pm (AEST)
Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Thomas Jenkins 3. Blaize Talagi 4. Casey McLean 5. Brian To'o 6. Jack Cole 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. Lindsay Smith 11. Isaiah Papali'i 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Jack Cogger 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Liam Henry 17. Billy Phillips 18. Luke Garner 19. Billy Scott Reserves: 20. Luron Patea 21. Freddy Lussick 22. Izack Tago
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker Bench: 14. Harrison Graham 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Dylan Lucas 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Thomas Cant Reserves: 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Elijah Leaumoana 22. Toby Winter
Officials
Referee: Gerard Sutton Touchies: Matt Noyen, Daniel Luttringer
Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: The best team of the 2026 season meets the hottest team of the 2026 finals in what should be another great game in front of a large crowd in Homebush.
The Panthers didn't have it all their way two weeks ago when defeating the Roosters, they were well-matched and needed a wobbly Nathan Cleary field goal to break a late deadlock. Cleary has been the focus ever since, as first he avoided suspension for a dangerous contact charge, and then set about rehabilitating an injured foot. The Panthers have proven they can win games without Cleary, but his coolness under pressure is invaluable in the biggest games.
The Knights are playing with the casino's money at this stage. After finishing last in 2025, making the finals surpassed anyone's expectations. To be playing in the Preliminary Final is an incredible achievement for coach Justin Holbrook and his team, especially considering they are without star half Dylan Brown. They simply have to keep playing the way they have been playing. Fast moving defence, free flowing ball movement from anywhere on the field, and total belief in their ability to beat anyone. Phoenix Crossland, Fletcher Sharpe, Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best, Dan Gagai, Dom Young, the Knights have weapons across the field. Without Jacob Saifiti, they are a little light on up front, but veteran Tyson Frizell has stepped up in the middle and the Knights back-row ranks, strengthened now by the surprise return of Dylan Lucas, have been simply brilliant.
The big question is; can the Knights execute their attacking style against the best defence in the business? They played just the once this season, with the Panthers winning 44-12. We know how good the Panthers are. We have seen them dominate the big games for years. Cleary and Dylan Edwards orchestrating the attack, Isaah Yeo and Liam Martin leading the defence. The Panthers are the best team in the competition for good reason and they stand between the other three teams and the premiership title. I think they'll return to the big dance this year.
Tip: Panthers by 14
PointsBet odds: Panthers $1.26 (-10.5 $1.95) Knights $3.80 (+10.5 $1.87)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.
