Here's a list of all of the people who, before the start of the 2024-25 season, thought Nottingham Forest would qualify for the UEFA Champions League:
... And yet, with eight games to go, it's quite likely that they do. The betting markets put the odds at well above a coin toss, while projections from other analysts give them a 4-in-5 shot at landing within the top five.
Now yes, this unlikely European Cup push is aided by an all-but-guaranteed fifth Champions League place for the Premier League this season. But even without that, projections from analyst Simon Tinsley give Forest a greater-than-60% shot at finishing in the top four.
Before the season, according to the site Sports Odds History, Forest's over/under point total was 35.5 -- the third lowest in the league. They hit the over before the end of last year.
Not only was this unexpected before the season, but it still seems surprising during the season.
The underlying numbers suggest as much: Forest's plus-2.5 expected-goal differential ranks ninth in the Premier League. But you don't need an algorithm to understand the situation. In an era where we're used to the best teams controlling matches and dominating shot counts, Forest have allowed 33 more shots than they've attempted.
This got me thinking: Who are the "worst" Premier League teams to ever qualify for the Champions League? We don't have advanced data -- or even just shot data -- all the way to when the breakaway league began in 1992, so we're going back only to the 2013-14 season for our analysis.
When we look at the previous 45 Champions League qualifiers, and the five sides currently in the top five by points per game, here's how the bottom 10 shakes out.
