NEW YORK -- For the first time in her illustrious career, Naomi Osaka is through to the second week of a third slam event in the same year after a grueling 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 win over Elise Mertens of Belgium in the third round Saturday evening.
The US Open winner in 2018 and 2020, Osaka reached the semifinals last year and has been thrilling crowds with her choices of walk-on fashion. Her tennis has been almost as flashy, and even though she struggled for top form against Mertens, she might like her odds of upsetting Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina in the last 16 on Monday.
Here's why she can spring the upset -- and why it won't be easy.
The pressure is on Rybakina
Rybakina will become world No. 1 for the first time in her career if she reaches the semifinals. And though her rivals for the No. 1 spot -- current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula -- all have to win to deny her, she knows that she can take care of things herself, if she wins two more matches. Osaka, by contrast, can play with freedom, knowing she's not expected to win.
Osaka has been more consistent this year
After reaching the third round at the Australian Open in January, Osaka made the last 16 at Roland Garros and went one better at Wimbledon, where she took out Sabalenka in brilliant fashion before losing to Karolina Muchova in the quarters. Two and a half years after returning to the tour following the birth of her daughter, she is growing in confidence and consistency and goes into the match 28-10 on the season.
"I feel like I've been close a little bit this year and also last year here," she said. "I would love to just see where my game takes me."
Their Toronto battle was close
Osaka and Rybakina have played each other just once, but it was recently, only a few weeks ago in Toronto. Rybakina came out on top in a tight three-setter, and Osaka will take a lot of heart from how much she pushed the Australian Open champion. The two women have similar games: Both have a big serve, though Rybakina has more power, and both hit hard off the ground.
Osaka knows how to get the job done, especially in New York. If she can serve with a high percentage, she'll have her chances.
"I know she's one of the best players in the world, so I have no choice but to come with a high level," Osaka said. "For me, I think that's when the most exciting tennis is. So I'm actually really looking forward to that match because I've played her once before in Toronto, and that was quite recent. I kind of know a little bit of her game."
"I think this match [against Mertens] was a lot emotionally, and I just want to have a fun time. When I think about having fun or playing point by point, that's when I play my best."
The crowd will be on her side
Osaka has always been a favorite with the crowd in New York, and though Rybakina is popular, Osaka will have the majority of fans behind her. That can only help. And if the match is at night, as is likely, the atmosphere could be rowdy. Osaka has shown in the past that she can handle that kind of occasion. Now it's just about producing her best on the night.
