With the New England Patriots playing without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the regular season, it seems fair to project a slight decline in statistical production for the team's wide receivers in the first quarter of the season. But when Brady returns, watch out. That's why health is the key factor in assessing fantasy value at the position, while also keeping in mind that a significant part of the offense will run through tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett.
ESPN Fantasy projection: 93.6 receptions, 1,007 yards, 7.2 TDs
Over or under: It all comes down to health, because when Edelman is 100 percent, these numbers are easily reachable. But I have concerns about Edelman and his surgically repaired left foot based on the way he plays, with sharp cuts and change of direction. So I'll go with the under here, projecting that there might be a few games he misses at some point during the season.
ESPN Fantasy projection: 40.6 receptions, 465.5 yards, 3.9 TDs
Over or under: Let's go over here. Hogan can pick up yards after the catch in a hurry in this offense, and while he might not always be the complement to Edelman in every game plan, he should have a significant role in the passing game on a consistent basis. I like the fit and think these projections are reachable, in part because I'm projecting Hogan to do what he has in each of the last three seasons: play in all 16 regular-season games.
ESPN Fantasy projection: 10 catches, 133.3 yards, 1 TD
Over or under: Considering Mitchell had four catches for 55 yards in 15 snaps in the preseason opener, I'm confident in going over here. I think Mitchell has a chance to match Aaron Dobson's 37-catch rookie season in 2012, and his longer-term ceiling is higher. The fourth-round pick out of Georgia dealt with injuries in college, and if healthy, he is a leading candidate for the "X" receiver role.
Who else could see time: Slot receiver Danny Amendola will likely be a regular in the three-receiver package. The fifth spot on the depth chart is up for grabs, with four-year veteran Dobson and fifth-year player Keshawn Martin the leading candidates.
