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ESPN Staff Writer- Lead researcher for "College GameDay" since 1996
- Voter on ESPN CFB Selection Committee
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 143rd running of the Kentucky Derby, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
Over the years, the Derby developed a notorious reputation, not only for having the favorite lose, but also for a long shot winning the race. More recently, the Run for the Roses has become more predictable, with favorites like California Chrome and American Pharoah finishing first. That favorite streak looked likely to continue this year until the Bob Baffert-trained Mastery was injured in the spring, leaving the Kentucky Derby wide open. Two-year-old champ Classic Empire is the early betting favorite, but he had an up-and-down spring, which leaves some other horses with a good chance to cash in at good prices.
Let's look at the field:
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1 - Lookin at Lee (Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Corey Lanerie); Morning line: 20-1
This stone-cold closer will drop back from the inside and pass as many as he can late. He was beaten just a length and a half in Arkansas by Classic Empire. The added ground will help, but from Post 1, about the best he can hope for is a third- or fourth-place finish. And even that might be wishful thinking, as just four horses have finished in the top five after breaking from the rail since Ferdinand won from Post 1 in 1986.
