It's almost like the living was just a little too good in the Sun Belt. The nation's most sensible college football conference -- one that continues to focus on things like "geography" and "local rivalries" and "natural divisions" -- has also been one of its most fun for quite a while. And in recent years, it had become increasingly successful, too.
The Sun Belt had the highest average SP+ rating of any Group of 5 conference in 2023, with two teams in the top 30 (Curt Cignetti's James Madison and Jon Sumrall's Troy) and another five in the top 70. From 2020 to 2024, the conference was in the G5's top two four times. But the standard slipped a bit when Cignetti (Indiana) and Sumrall (Troy) both left. The Sun Belt ranked third in the G5 last season, with Bob Chesney's JMU 27th but only three other teams in the top 85.
This offseason, both Chesney and Charles Huff -- the coaches of the last two Sun Belt champs -- left the conference. Now, with only five teams ranked higher than 105th in returning production, the Sun Belt is projected to rank fourth out of six mid-major conferences, closer to fifth-place Conference USA than the third-place American. Even the new standard-bearer, James Madison, is taking on a major reset.
On the bright side, the conference becomes even more geographically sensible this year: With Texas State off to the redesigned Pac-12, Louisiana Tech paid a premium to leave CUSA earlier than expected and join the Sun Belt West. That's a good sign that Fun Belt life is still something to aspire to, and it finally puts Tech in the same conference as two other schools, Louisiana and Louisiana-Monroe, that have long clamored to become its rivals. The hostility quotient in the conference rose a bit, in other words. Hell yeah.
Who is best positioned to take advantage of this moment of transition? Let's preview the Sun Belt!
2025 recap
For a moment, it looked like we were headed for a hell of a race in the East division. Old Dominion walloped Virginia Tech, tested Indiana more than almost any Big Ten team and gave us one of the nation's most explosive offenses; the Monarchs looked ready to test an openly fantastic James Madison team for division supremacy. They even led the Dukes 27-21 deep into the first half, in Harrisonburg. But JMU unleashed a dominant 42-0 run from there and rolled to both the division and conference titles. In a solid consolation prize, ODU won 10 games for the first time in nine years.
The West division gave us quite a thought experiment in 2025: What happens when a healthy percentage of the conference champion's roster grafts onto the conference's worst team?
Charles Huff left Marshall for Southern Miss after 2024's title run, and he indeed brought a load of transfers with him. Marshall's SP+ rating fell by 7.6 points, and the Thundering Herd's win total was cut in half, from 10 to five. Southern Miss' rating, meanwhile, rose by a similar amount: 7.1 points. That was enough to boost the Golden Eagles from 1-11 and 133rd in SP+ to 7-6 and 94th. They were division front-runners, too, until three late losses handed the division to defense-driven Troy.
Continuity table
The continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
Only five Sun Belt teams rank better than 105th in returning production, and the top four are all in the West division. At 53rd, newbie Louisiana Tech has the best continuity by a comfortable margin. Meanwhile, Arkansas State returns the most 2025 starters of anyone, a year after coming up one win short in the West. Can the Red Wolves find a quarterback and become only the third team (after Louisiana and Troy) to represent the West in the Sun Belt championship game?
2026 projections
JMU still begins the year ahead of the pack, but the Dukes are projected to fall nearly 50 spots in SP+. With seven teams projected between 89th and 104th, we could see any number of plot twists here if new head coach Billy Napier's Dukes don't quickly prove their class.
The 2024 champ (Marshall), the 2025 champ (JMU) and the champ's biggest 2025 challenger (ODU) start out with the advantage in the East. I guess that makes sense.
A year after four teams finished within a game of the West lead, four teams are projected within 0.4 average conference wins of each other. I guess that also makes sense.
Five best games of 2026
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.
Sept. 26: James Madison at Old Dominion. We don't have to wait long to see if ODU has closed the gap on JMU. The Monarchs will host the defending champs in each team's first conference game of 2026. That's what we call a tone setter.
Oct. 3: Marshall at James Madison. A week after the trip to ODU, JMU welcomes the other potential East favorite to Harrisonburg. The Dukes' Billy Napier signed a lovely transfer class, but he won't have much time to figure out what this new roster has to offer.
Oct. 29: Troy at James Madison. A rematch of last year's title game, in which Troy was able to scare JMU for most of four full quarters. I talk about hinge teams a lot -- the good teams that play in lots of important games (and therefore decide who makes the conference title game, whether it's them or not) -- and in this case, the defending champ is the conference's major hinge team.
Oct. 31: Marshall at Old Dominion. This list is extremely East-heavy, both because its title race could be tight and because of the "highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams" requirement. Three of the conference's top four projected teams are from the East, and if JMU isn't the class of the division, it's probably one of these two.
Nov. 7: Troy at Louisiana Tech. A West game! This one could set the stakes for the season's home stretch. Is Tech mounting a title push in its Sun Belt debut? Has Troy positioned itself for a repeat?
My five favorite transfers
DT Kevin Roberts, JMU. For much of the Group of 6, portal life comes down to finding the most disruptive players possible from the FCS ranks or lower. In West Florida's Roberts, Napier found a potential gem. Roberts recorded 18 tackles for loss at 291 pounds last season! I don't care that it was against Division II competition -- that's serious havoc right there.
QB Max Johnson, Georgia Southern. I don't even know if he'll win the job -- he first has to beat out sophomores Turner Helton and Weston Bryan -- but I love that we might see a fun final act for Johnson, the former LSU and North Carolina quarterback who came back from one of the most gruesome leg injuries you'll ever see in 2024. If he's capable of thriving, he'll do so in a Georgia Southern offense well suited for his skill set.
RB Nick Herman, JMU. Wayne Knight left huge shoes to fill after rushing for 1,373 yards in JMU's purple and gold last season. Veteran returnee George Pettaway could earn starting honors, but I love the addition of Herman, who rushed for 1,034 yards and 7.2 yards per carry as a freshman at FCS Drake last season. The Chicago product could be an immediate hit, but with his youth, he has time to develop into a star as well.
LB/NB Kevin Henderson, Appalachian State. Is he an outside linebacker? Or at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds, is he more of a nickel back? All I know for sure is that Henderson is a playmaker. At Division II Findlay, he made 15.5 TFLs last year with three sacks, and he still found time to drop into coverage and pick off a pass with seven breakups. The Oilers ranked second in defensive SP+ in Division II, and Henderson was as much of a driving force as anyone.
WR Jaylen Himes, Southern Miss. Another Division II star, Himes was a big-play specialist as a freshman, needing only 66 catches to gain 1,174 yards (17.8 per catch) and score 11 touchdowns for a nine-win Wingate team. In his only Division II playoff game -- one that ended in dramatic misfortune for Himes' Bulldogs -- he caught four balls for 138 yards and two scores. He's listed at 5-foot-8, 180 pounds, so there will be a physical adjustment in this move. But skill is skill.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
James Madison Dukes
• Head coach: Billy Napier (first year)
• 2026 projection: 75th in SP+, 8.5 average wins (5.8 in the Sun Belt)
It's hard to forget the last impression someone has made. When James Madison hired Billy Napier to replace UCLA-bound Bob Chesney, it felt almost underwhelming: After succeeding wildly with FCS up-and-comers -- Chesney came from Holy Cross, while predecessor Curt Cignetti (Google him) came from Elon -- what was JMU doing hiring the guy who just went 22-23 at Florida?
Of course, Napier also built a Sun Belt juggernaut. After a single .500 season, his Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns went 34-5 from 2019 to 2021, peaking at 23rd in SP+ and winning two conference titles. With solid evaluation and development, plus a hankering for pure size and physicality, Napier crafted a roster that was just too much for the average Sun Belt team to handle. And now he's at what might be the most well-resourced Sun Belt program. That makes loads of sense.
The college football world has changed since 2021, and there's nothing saying Napier will simply be able to flip the Sun Belt Domination switch again. The only guarantee is that 2026 JMU will look almost nothing like 2025 JMU. While 27 Dukes took at least 300 snaps last fall, only four return: center Zach Greenberg, receiver Braeden Wisloski, edge rusher Amar Thomas and linebacker Gannon Weathersby.
As expected, among Napier's 41 incoming transfers are plenty of big dudes, including offensive linemen listed at 6-foot-5, 339 pounds; 6-8, 321; 6-8, 310; 6-7, 307; 6-6, 325; and 6-2; 321. Beyond that, however, Napier looks like he's trying to split the difference between immediate help and guys he can develop.
It's as if Napier searched "Best small-school underclassmen" and vacuumed up everyone he saw: Running back Nick Herman (1,034 yards at Drake), receivers Noah Grevious (728 yards at VMI) and Jeremiah Harrison (17.2 yards per catch at East Tennessee State), offensive lineman Frankie Tinilau (11 starts at East Tennessee), defensive tackle Kevin Roberts (18 TFLs at West Florida), linebackers Lathan Croley and JT Hooten (153 tackles between them at Holy Cross and West Alabama), and defensive backs Terrence Jones II, Jayon Harvey and Damier Minkah (combined: 3 INTs, 28 pass breakups and 8.5 TFLs at Fordham, Findley and Shepherd, respectively) are all sophomores or juniors.
With FBS sophomores such as quarterbacks Arrington Maiden (Memphis) and Davi Belfort (UCF), blue-chip receiver Kylan Billiot (LSU), offensive linemen Kaedin Massey (Kansas State) and Noel Portnjagin (Florida), defensive end Ernest Willor Jr. (Wisconsin), defensive tackle Chukwunedu Okeke (Western Kentucky) and cornerback DJ Kelly (Toledo), this is one of the most talented young transfer classes in the country. Whichever players emerge as JMU's best in 2026, they'll probably still have eligibility left in 2027.
Still, this makes 2026 a transition year. Even if Napier is capable of bulldozing Sun Belt competition again, he might spend this fall figuring out what he has and what the order of succession should be at QB, where Maiden, Belfort, Camden Coleman (a 2025 transfer who was 13-1 as Richmond's starter) and big, mobile sophomore JC Evans will battle into the fall. An easy schedule will help -- JMU's slate ranks 132nd in strength of schedule, per preseason SP+ -- but we'll see how long it takes to get the chess board arranged.
Old Dominion Monarchs
• Head coach: Ricky Rahne (sixth year, 30-33 overall)
• 2026 projection: 89th in SP+, 7.4 average wins (5.2 in the Sun Belt)
Ricky Rahne may have done the best coaching job in the mid-major ranks last season: Despite iffy returning production numbers, Old Dominion surged from 5-7 and 95th in SP+ to 10-3 and 50th. The Monarchs risked turnovers in the name of big plays but ranked seventh in yards per successful play and topped 40 points four times (including in a 45-26 romp over Virginia Tech).
The defense, meanwhile, lost a couple of key linebackers to injury but attacked the pass vigorously, ranking 13th in yards per dropback and forcing 25 turnovers. Colton Joseph and the offense got most of the attention, but both units ranked in the 40s in SP+, and ODU went 10-1 against teams not named Indiana or James Madison.
Rahne's talent identification skills are as good as anyone's at this point, but with his Monarchs ranking 114th in returning production, and with offensive coordinator Kevin Decker off to Memphis, he's had to use those skills a lot this offseason. Gone are basically 10.5 offensive starters, plus prime defensive havoc creators in end Kris Trinidad and nickel Jeremy Mack Jr. But the defense is still experienced, with coordinator Blake Seiler back, and the offense will have a chance at more big plays if talent identification produces the right portal stars.
Of the 18 defenders with at least 200 snaps last season, 10 return, a solid number that includes excellent sophomores in tackle Chris Forbes and linebacker Jackson Forrest and six of last year's top nine DBs. Two of ODU's best 2024 defenders, linebackers Mario Thompson and Koa Naotala, are back as well. With four transfers and five jucos providing depth, this could easily be one of the conference's most proven units.
That's good because there's nothing proven about the offense. Joseph is off to Wisconsin, and of the seven players who gained at least 400 yards from scrimmage last season, only running back Devin Roche returns. Roche is awesome: Despite his 5-foot-7, 172-pound frame, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry after contact in 2025, constantly bouncing off potential tacklers. Plus, sophomore quarterback Quinn Henicle led ODU to a bowl win over South Florida. (He averaged only 3.6 yards per dropback but rushed for 148 yards and two TDs.)
But Rahne and new coordinator Kody Cook will have to hope small-school stars make the FBS transition quickly, from running back Hunter Patterson (West Liberty) to receivers Zion Agnew (Lenoir-Rhyne) and Kendall Harris (Mercer) to any of the four FCS or Division II transfers up front. Rahne leaned heavily into juco transfers as well -- an intriguing strategy if it turns out schools are overlooking juco talent in the name of portal additions. If either Henicle or Washington State transfer Jaxon Potter can do a solid Joseph impression at QB and small-school production becomes Sun Belt production, ODU will remain a contender.
Troy Trojans
• Head coach: Gerad Parker (third year, 12-14 overall)
• 2026 projection: 90th in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.0 in the Sun Belt)
Three games into 2025, Gerad Parker's Troy tenure had produced just a 5-10 overall record. Starting quarterback Goose Crowder was injured, too. For a program that ignites under the right coach (Neal Brown went 31-8 from 2016 to '18, Jon Sumrall went 23-5 in 2022 and '23) and falls apart under the wrong one (three straight five-win seasons for Chip Lindsey in between), Parker was looking more like the latter than the former.
But things improved quickly. Troy won five in a row, and after backup QB Tucker Kilcrease ran out of magic in a pair of early November losses, Crowder returned and led the Trojans to a pair of wins and a respectable Sun Belt title game showing. (The Trojans trailed JMU 17-14 with five minutes left before a pair of late Dukes TDs.) Despite an offense that looked scary only briefly, good pass defense and brilliant red zone defense produced a solid 8-6 campaign.
The offense will have to carry more weight if Troy is to reach the title game again. While edge rusher Donnie Smith returns -- he may have been the Trojans' best defender last season, with 11 sacks and seven run stops -- 13 of Dontae Wright's 19 regulars (200-plus snaps) do not. Smith, tackle Kam Curry, linebackers Luke Hodge and TJ Thompson and safety Justin Powe could form a solid base of senior leadership, but youngsters and newcomers from both the portal and juco ranks must fill lots of holes.
To kick-start the offense, Parker made a pretty exciting hire: Adam Austin coordinated one of FCS' most explosive offenses at Tarleton State last season, and he'll take over a reasonably experienced unit.
Part of the plus of having to start a million guys in a season, as Troy did on offense last season -- OK, not a million, but the Trojans started two quarterbacks, two running backs, nine receivers and tight ends and 11 linemen -- is that it distributes the experience quite a bit. Eleven of those 24 combined starters return, and while the receiving corps took a major hit (returning wideouts combined for seven catches last season, all from junior Mojo Dortch), Crowder and Kilcrease are both back and have combined for 20 career starts and 3,962 passing yards. Six experienced linemen return, too, and Parker did well in adding all-conference linemen Jordon Jones (Ohio) and Luke Petit (Furman).
Obviously none of this matters if reliable weapons don't emerge in the skill corps, and beyond Dortch, I don't even know who might have breakthrough potential. But a good offensive system and experience at QB and on the O-line can take you pretty far.
Marshall Thundering Herd
• Head coach: Tony Gibson (second year, 5-7 overall)
• 2026 projection: 92nd in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.1 in the Sun Belt)
When your win total gets cut in half, from 10 to five, it's hard to say you had anything but a poor season. But as far as poor seasons go, Marshall's was forgivable. The Thundering Herd ranked dead last nationally in returning production in 2025 after Sun Belt-winning head coach Charles Huff was allowed to leave for Southern Miss and took loads of players with him. (Southern Miss this year: dead last in returning production after Huff left for Memphis.) And the Herd began the season looking like a bunch of guys who didn't know their teammates' names. They lost three of their first four games against FBS opponents while underachieving against pretty pessimistic SP+ projections.
The rest of the year was certainly not amazing, but the bleeding stopped. They played a great pair of games in October -- a 48-34 upset of Old Dominion, then a delightful 40-37 double-overtime win over Texas State -- and while they lost four of their final five games, two of those were unlucky close losses to Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. (They outgained those opponents, 6.6 yards per play to 5.1, but lost by seven combined points.) The offense surged midseason and the defense improved late (albeit as the offense faded), and by Sun Belt standards they now enter 2026 with decent continuity.
Quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson returns after combining 2,043 passing yards with 714 non-sack rushing yards over 10 starts, and he gets three of last year's top four receivers and a pair of offensive line starters back. The Herd definitely need transfers to contribute at running back and on the offensive line, but veteran offensive coordinator Rod Smith gets a lot out of dual-threat QBs, and after multiple stops in his career, Del Rio-Wilson, a former top-60 recruit, has become a pretty good one.
Gibson got the head coaching job because of both his extensive West Virginia ties and great defense; the latter didn't stop Marshall from plummeting to 119th in defensive SP+ last season, and to stop the bleeding, Gibson brought back a familiar face. Brad Lambert oversaw massive improvement in his last stint as Marshall's defensive coordinator (2019-20), but he hasn't seen much success since, and he'll take over a brand new unit.
Of the 21 defenders with at least 200 snaps, only seven return, and only three started more than four games. Lanky outside linebacker Javae Gilmore is a keeper (15 run stops in 2025), and safety Daytione Smith is good. But Lambert will likely be asking former backups like tackle Cam Chmura, linebacker Cannon Lewis and safety Caleb Clark-Glover, plus loads of incoming transfers, to step up. Veteran cornerbacks Charles McCartherens (Buffalo) and Brayden Hall (Central Connecticut) are probably the most proven players in the portal haul.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Head coach: Butch Jones (sixth year, 26-37 overall)
• 2026 projection: 101st in SP+, 6.9 average wins (5.1 in the Sun Belt)
After five seasons, Butch Jones has Arkansas State in a definitively decent place. After a rough start, with five wins in two seasons, his Red Wolves have gone 21-18 with an average SP+ ranking of 96.0 since 2023. That doesn't match the heady days of the 2010s -- from 2011 to 2019, ASU averaged 8.1 wins per season and a ranking of 74.9 -- but it's not bad. And with a conference schedule that hands them only the bottom two projected teams from the East division, the Wolves are staring at a pretty high-level opportunity in 2026.
Now they just need to hope they have a quarterback. After three years, 8,694 passing yards and 67 total touchdowns as ASU's starter, Jaylen Raynor left for Iowa State. With backup Josh Flowers also gone, Jones brought in four transfers, including former blue-chipper Trey Owens (Texas) and a pair of Vanderbilt players (senior Drew Dickey and sophomore Jérémy St-Hilaire) who followed new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman, Vandy's former QBs coach, to Jonesboro. That trio of newbies and returning senior Ethan Crawford will continue to compete into the fall.
Whoever wins the job should have a solid supporting cast. ASU returns five of seven linemen who started at least four games last season; the interior line trio of guards Wil Saxton and Tristian Smith and center Mason Myers all enjoyed stellar blown block rates, and Jones added four transfers and two jucos as well. Last year's top two running backs (Kenyon Clay and Devin Spencer) and five of the seven players who caught at least 25 passes (Chauncy Cobb, Hunter Summers, Jaylen Bonelli, Clay and Spencer) are back as well. There aren't a lot of statistical standouts in this bunch, but they're experienced, and perhaps a newcomer like running back Corey Reddick (Valdosta State) or receiver Boski Barrett (Vandy) can provide some pop.
The defense is getting a makeover, and that might not be a bad thing. The Red Wolves haven't ranked higher than 106th in defensive SP+ since 2018, and while they rushed the passer well last fall, they didn't force opponents behind schedule enough for that to matter. ASU was 4-1 when allowing fewer than 27 points, but the big note there is they did that only five times.
The top four safeties return, along with quite a few sophomore backups, but the lineup will be loaded with newcomers. Jones signed 17 transfers (plus four jucos) for the defense alone, and while corners Five Hamilton (Kennesaw State) and Noah Flores (Utah State) are impressive, and linebacker Tre Stevens (Lafayette) could be a stabilizer, it seems like defensive tackle saw the biggest upgrade: Shakai Woods (Middle Tennessee) and Sultan Badmus (Temple) combined for nine TFLs, Tyeland Coleman (Florida State) is physically impressive and Elias Sherman (Maine) made 10 TFLs at 290 pounds last season. If the line provides better resistance up front, an experienced secondary could thrive. Last year's best pass rushers are gone, but if you're forcing a lot more passing downs, that's a fair trade.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
• Head coach: Michael Desormeaux (fifth year, 29-25 overall)
• 2026 projection: 104th in SP+, 7.7 average wins (5.1 in the Sun Belt)
A transfer class can make or break you; so can the lack of one. Michael Desormeaux elected not to load up on newcomers last year despite losing about 15 starters following 2024's 10-win breakthrough. He brought in only seven transfers, trusting the talent pipeline he had in place. But neither the pipeline nor the transfers provided what was needed. The offense fell from 39th to 84th in SP+, the defense fell from 78th to 113th, and even special teams plummeted from 37th to 113th. Transfer quarterback Walker Howard was a bust, and only one transfer, receiver Shelton Sampson Jr., was a genuine hit. The offense improved late in the season with Lunch Winfield at quarterback, averaging 34.3 points during a four-game winning streak that salvaged bowl eligibility. But a bowl dud against Delaware produced a third losing season (albeit all 6-7 campaigns) in four years for Desormeaux.
In response, Desormeaux is doubling down on the pipeline. In come only five transfers, and only a couple of them -- running back Anthony Reagan Jr. (Howard) and defensive end Tito Chikere (East Texas A&M) -- were particularly productive last season. The lack of moves is almost a bold move in itself, but it's not hard to see the logic. A lot of last year's most interesting players were either sophomores (Winfield, Sampson, center Cooper Fordham, safety Kody Jackson) or freshmen (cornerback Brent Gordon Jr., safety Lake Bates). Louisiana has the third-best returning production numbers in the Sun Belt. Maybe that's enough for a rebound?
Winfield was inconsistent in 2025, but his brightest moments were tremendous. He was 14-for-15 for 232 yards and two scores against South Alabama, and he rushed 15 times for 131 yards and two scores in a tight win over Arkansas State three weeks later. UL's top two running backs are gone, but Reagan and sophomore Steven Blanco are intriguing, redshirt freshman JJ Garner was a spring game star, six linemen with starting experience return, and UL almost always has a solid, physical ground attack. Building an offense around Winfield's dual-threat capabilities, the typical Cajuns run game and bombs to Sampson makes sense.
The defense is the question mark. Third-year coordinator Jim Salgado has a keeper in Gordon, and of the 11 defensive backs who started at least once in 2025, seven return. But the front six must replace six of its top eight (and both of its primary havoc creators), and again, only one semi-proven transfer comes in. Quite a few youngsters got their feet wet last season, but none showed surefire promise. Louisiana played five games with at least 62 combined points last season, and I'm guessing there will be a similar number of track meets in 2026.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
• Head coach: Sonny Cumbie (fifth year, 19-31 overall)
• 2026 projection: 99th in SP+, 6.4 average wins (4.7 in the Sun Belt)
Welcome to the Fun Belt, Louisiana Tech! The Bulldogs paid extra money to Conference USA to join the Sun Belt a year early, and while the schedule makers weren't particularly kind, they enter 2026 with a decent shot at the West division title.
After three straight losing seasons under Sonny Cumbie (and four straight overall), the Bulldogs finally found some traction in 2025, earning their best win total (eight) and SP+ ranking (77) in seven years. Cumbie had produced a couple of good offenses, plus a strong defense in 2024, but last year was the first time both units thrived at the same time.
Quarterback Blake Baker was stellar before tearing his ACL, and Trey Kukuk, a less successful passer but excellent runner, led the Bulldogs to three straight wins at the end of the season. Baker should be good to go this fall, and he'll have sure-handed tight end Eli Finley back. Last year's top three wideouts are gone, but there's an exciting batch of potential new stars in Jay Wilkerson (20.2 yards per catch in 2024, injured last fall), sophomore slot Jalen Mickens, excellent punt returner Dedrick Latulas and transfers Talyn Shettron (Oklahoma State) and Marcus Calwise Jr. (Eastern Kentucky). No experienced running backs return, and transfer Jaden Miller (Keiser) is taking a big leap up in competition after rushing for 1,127 yards in NAIA. But the line returns five players with starting experience, and new offensive coordinator Nathan Young should be able to lean on the pass.
Cumbie has made two consecutive fantastic defensive coordinator hires. Jeremiah Johnson was transformative in 2024, and when he left after just one season, Luke Olson came over from Jacksonville State and sustained all of Johnson's gains. The Bulldogs stopped 38.0% of opponents' plays for zero or fewer yards (sixth in FBS), forced 25 turnovers (ninth) and allowed touchdowns on just 48.7% of red zone trips (11th).
Olson lost a fantastic playmaker in linebacker Mekhi Mason, but with linebackers Sifa Leota and Jadon Mayfield returning, along with ends Emmanuel Oguns and Donovan Rieman and some big tackles (plus 310-pound West Florida transfer Justice Williams), there's still reason for optimism in the front six. The secondary, however, is getting a total makeover. Last year's top five are gone, and while senior corners Amari Butler and Kameron Carter both thrived as backups, a quartet of transfers, including safeties Ty Jones (Norfolk State) and MJ Moultrie II (Hampton), must deliver at a high level.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Georgia Southern Eagles
• Head coach: Clay Helton (fifth year, 27-25 overall)
• 2026 projection: 103rd in SP+, 5.8 average wins (4.1 in the Sun Belt)
With the growing number of challenges a Group of 6 head coach faces these days -- increasing revenue disparities, infinite roster plucking -- simply holding the fort is a solid accomplishment. In that regard, with bowl bids for four straight seasons, Clay Helton is doing fine at Georgia Southern.
Last year featured some warning signs, though. The Eagles needed four one-score wins to eke out bowl eligibility, and against four SP+ top-70 opponents they went 0-4 with an average score of 45.3 to 13.5. The offense was solid, as has been typical under Helton and coordinator Ryan Aplin, but an incredibly young defense plummeted to 130th in SP+.
Of the 15 returning defenders who saw at least 100 snaps in 2025, 10 are either sophomores or juniors, but Helton went ahead and made a coordinator change, bringing in Mike Mutz, a former Georgia State assistant who led a dominant Stephen F. Austin defense last year. Mutz gets all of last year's sophomores back (the best of the bunch: probably cornerback Jaquari Brown), but he'll also work with 10 incoming transfers, including edge rusher Anthony Bynum (Middle Tennessee), linebacker Rashon Myles Jr. (Abilene Christian) and corners Aaron Sears (Stephen F. Austin) and Noah Mangham (Abilene Christian).
On offense, we get to witness Max Johnson's final act. The former LSU and North Carolina quarterback has thrown for 6,356 yards and 49 TDs over parts of six seasons and is battling sophomores Turner Helton and Weston Bryan for the starting job. The Eagles have averaged a solid offensive SP+ ranking of 59.8 over the last four seasons, so whoever wins the job will have high expectations. They'll also have a mostly unproven supporting cast: No returnee started more than twice last season, though receiver Josh Dallas and left tackle Caelan Williams, both injured last fall, were solid in 2024. Transfers like guard Mo Clipper Jr. (12 starts at Charlotte) and receiver King Phillips (880 yards at Texas A&M-Kingsville) might be the most proven pieces.
This feels like a "defense improves while offense regresses" situation, but I like the Mutz hire, and Aplin has a track record.
Appalachian State Mountaineers
• Head coach: Dowell Loggains (second year, 5-8 overall)
• 2026 projection: 111th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (4.0 in the Sun Belt)
Sometimes even a great football culture like App State's needs a refresh. After a 7-5 FBS debut in 2014, the Mountaineers began to make things look very easy. That is no longer the case.
2015-17: 30-9 record (0.769), 59.0 average SP+ ranking
2018-21: 43-10 record (0.811), 27.8 average SP+ ranking
2022-23: 15-11 record (0.577), 58.0 average SP+ ranking
2024-25: 10-14 record (0.417), 105.5 average SP+ ranking
Dowel Loggains took over after the Mountaineers stumbled in 2024, and his first year was App's worst in FBS. Year 2 features a total reset: Forty players transferred out, 36 transferred in, and only two returnees -- linebacker Colton Phares and left guard Cayden Sweatt -- started more than seven games last fall.
The Mountaineers hadn't ranked outside the top 70 in offensive SP+ since 2016 but plummeted to 101st in 2025. Loggains will ask new faces to turn that around -- primarily offensive coordinator Mike Anthony and one of two transfer quarterbacks, either junior Malachi Singleton (Purdue) or sophomore Henry Hasselbeck (UCLA). Anthony is a Kendal Briles protege, which hints at an offense built around tempo and a spread-out passing game. Singleton has averaged a solid 7.9 yards per dropback and 8.9 yards per (non-sack) carry at Arkansas and Purdue. Granted, that was mostly in garbage time, but the former blue-chipper has upside.
We'll see about the supporting cast. The most proven running back (Jaquari Lewis) is a sophomore, and the most proven pass catcher (Chris Lofton) did his damage in FCS. The line does feature four players with starting experience, plus three power conference transfers and a Division II starter.
The defense can only get so much worse. Phares is a solid sideline-to-sideline guy, and ends Aiden Benton and Caleb Sandstrom combined for eight sacks last year. But if improvement comes, it will likely be driven by newbies. In addition to mid-major veterans like linebacker Keshawn Thomas (ODU) and safety Cary Grant (Charlotte), I like that Loggains nabbed quite a few productive underclassmen -- guys with further developmental potential -- from the lower levels. My favorites: tackle Aaron Clark (Towson), linebacker/nickel Kevin Henderson (Findlay) and corner Josh Williams (Dayton).
South Alabama Jaguars
• Head coach: Major Applewhite (third year, 11-14 overall)
• 2026 projection: 115th in SP+, 5.3 average wins (3.8 in the Sun Belt)
No team reflects the Sun Belt's current "do fun, interesting things then get totally plucked apart" vibe like South Alabama. The Jaguars won 17 games, with top-50 SP+ rankings, in each of Kane Wommack's last two seasons in charge, but Wommack left to become Alabama's defensive coordinator in 2024. In Major Applewhite's first season as Wommack's replacement, he generated a delightful product from players like QB Gio Lopez (who left for North Carolina), RB Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State), OL Malachi Carney (Georgia Tech) and CB Lardarius Webb Jr. (Wake Forest). His reward was having to start all over.
Last season didn't go nearly as well: The Jaguars fell to 4-8 with their worst SP+ ranking (114th) since 2019. And now turnover has struck again. Granted, ranking 105th in returning production is only so bad in this conference, and with Bishop Davenport, USA is more proven at QB than most of its Sun Belt peers. But running back Kentrel Bullock and three of the top four in the receiving corps are gone, and players responsible for only 18 of 60 O-line starts return. On defense, only six of the 20 players with 200-plus snaps are back; corner Jayvon Henderson and outside linebacker Tirrell Johnson are solid, and if he's fully recovered from a foot injury, sophomore linebacker Caleb Dozier could be dynamite. But there are loads of holes to fill on the two-deep.
I haven't mentioned incoming transfers yet because there aren't many. Big Shalik Hubbard (Monmouth) is immediately one of the most proven offensive linemen, defensive end Mase Lewis (McNeese State) is a good playmaker for his size (6-foot-4, 278 pounds), and outside linebacker Seidrion Langston (Louisiana-Monroe) should help. But while 27 transfers left Mobile, only 11 came in. If Applewhite is to right the ship in 2026, he'll do it with returnees and nine jucos. The transfer portal has offered teams a way to keep experience levels high, and it's therefore a risk (albeit an admirable one) to lean on your own unproven talent. If there are some more Lopezes and Bothwells to be unearthed, maybe everything works out. But those guys would've come in handy last year.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
• Head coach: Ryan Beard (first year)
• 2026 projection: 119th in SP+, 5.2 average wins (3.2 in the Sun Belt)
It's almost impossible to regress for five consecutive years, but Coastal Carolina nearly pulled it off. From 11-1 and 17th in SP+ in 2020, the Chanticleers have seen both their win percentage and SP+ ranking fall in four of the last five seasons. They pulled off bowl eligibility last year with a midseason four-game winning streak, but they beat only one team ranked higher than 111th in SP+, and in five winless games against top-50 teams they were demolished by an average of 48.6 to 6.2. They averaged 38.3 points per game against bottom-20 defenses and just 8.3 against anything better. Firing head coach Tim Beck during a third straight bowl season might have seemed a little odd, but you can see the logic. The standard was slipping.
In response, Coastal basically imported Missouri State's standard. Ryan Beard led MSU to a bowl in its first FBS season, and among his 41 incoming transfers are 12 former Bears. Quarterback Deuce Bailey, receiver Tristian Gardner and defensive linemen DJ Wesolak, Ahmad Poole and Mitchell Toney were among the Bears' more exciting athletes last season, and Beard retained some of Coastal's more explosive players, such as running back Dominic Knicely, defensive end Ibrahim Diawara, linebacker Tray Brown, corner Ja'Marion Wayne and safety Myles Woods.
I think there's quite a bit of potential with the passing game: Either Bailey, Arkansas transfer Trever Jackson, juco transfer Tre Guerra or freshman super-athlete Osiris Lopez should provide a pretty high ceiling at QB, and in addition to Gardner, fellow transfers Clayton Coppock (Kennesaw State) and Goldie Lawrence (Florida A&M) are exciting additions. Knicely and Rice transfer Daelen Alexander could create a high ceiling at RB, too. And on defense, the front six seems to have loads of promise with Diawara, Brown and the Missouri State guys.
The offensive line and secondary are going to need lots of help from transfers -- that's how it works when you sign 41 of them -- but there's quite a bit of upside among the newcomers. You can't really trust a program that has regressed so dramatically (and steadily), but I do see potential.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
• Head coach: Blake Anderson (first year, 0-1 overall)
• 2026 projection: 131st in SP+, 2.8 average wins (1.7 in the Sun Belt)
It's hard to avoid turning some of these team profiles into simple lists of transfers. It's especially hard when you're talking about a team that either just hired, or just lost, Charles Huff. He tends to leave town with lots of players in tow, and Southern Miss heads into 2026 with the worst returning production figures in the country.
The offense returns one player who started more than twice, and only one returning defender saw more than 40 snaps. Even by today's standards, that's incredible turnover. I do appreciate that some of the best transfers Blake Anderson brought in are sophomores -- running back Brandon Hood (UMass), receiver Jaylen Himes (Wingate), cornerback Kelby Hampton (New Hampshire), plus former blue-chippers like defensive end Jeffery Rush (Ole Miss) and safety Jordan Pride (Texas A&M). That's always a hopeful sign from a developmental standpoint.
Hood and senior Robert Briggs could create a solid running back duo next to the QB of choice -- either 2025 backup Landry Lyddy, 2024 backup John White or Illinois transfer Ethan Hampton. Another Illinois transfer, receiver Mario Sanders, was a spring game star, and the defense has a pretty fun mixture of size (four incoming tackles are listed at 305 or heavier), athletic players moving down from the power conferences and experienced and productive players like linebacker Andrew Marton (Stetson), cornerback Hiroshi Carr (Morgan State) and safeties Landon Sylvie (Southeast Missouri) and Caleb Williams (Faulkner) moving up. Still, with 21 new starters and a hire I really didn't like very much, it's hard to feel incredibly confident.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
• Head coach: Bryant Vincent (third year, 8-16 overall)
• 2026 projection: 132nd in SP+, 2.6 average wins (1.7 in the Sun Belt)
Gravity is ruthless in Monroe. ULM's 2024 season was encouraging: Bryant Vincent's first Warhawks team jumped from 2-10 to 5-7 with a sturdy bend-don't-break defense and a new star in running back Ahmad Hardy. Hardy jumped to Missouri, but with a new crop of RB transfers and solid defensive experience, there was reason for cautious optimism. Instead, a jumbled offensive line couldn't prevent negative plays, and only three defenders managed to start all 12 games. After a 3-1 start, ULM lost eight straight.
Experience levels should be solid in 2026 as long as the injury bug doesn't bite as much. Quarterback Aidan Armenta and three of his top four targets return, and while the RB corps got completely wiped out again, I love the addition of both former blue-chipper Don Chaney Jr. (Miami/Louisville) and Division II star Bryson Roland (Arkansas Tech). Vincent signed three transfer tight ends, too, which suggests a desire for more physicality in the passing game. Meanwhile, seven linemen started at least four games last year, and four return.
The defense is hard to figure out. The run defense was still decent last year, but the line lost eight of its top nine guys and only added a couple of transfers. If the Warhawks somehow provide resistance up front, the linebacking corps returns a stud in Noah Flemmings, and the secondary returns six of the 12 guys who started a game last year. Safety Jabari Tiller made six TFLs, and incoming safety Willie Wilson (American International) made 11.5 in Division III. There's fun disruption potential, but only if the line isn't a sieve.
Georgia State Panthers
• Head coach: Dell McGee (third year, 4-20 overall)
• 2026 projection: 133rd in SP+, 2.7 average wins (1.3 in the Sun Belt)
As with ULM, cautious optimism turned to dust for Georgia State last season. Dell McGee avoided disaster in 2024 despite his late-in-the-cycle hire and a spring transfer exodus, but apparently he only delayed the downturn. Projected 111th in SP+, his Panthers were in the 130s by the end of September and ended up 0-11 against FBS opponents, staying within one score only twice. The offense regressed under new coordinator Hue Jackson, and the defense collapsed to 134th in defensive SP+.
Predictably, it's reset time: Only four returnees started more than five games in 2025. But that includes three big, experienced offensive linemen, and some of last year's more encouraging players are back. Quarterback Cameran Brown is a fun dual-threat who engineered a 25.3 PPG average in four late starts, sophomore tight end Grant Hollier averaged 13.7 yards per catch, and sophomore corner Tyson McCrary has solid aggressiveness potential. McGee grabbed a few former power conference blue-chippers, but a 2026 rebound will require productive small-schoolers to become immediate hits.
For what it's worth, those small-schoolers were quite productive. McGee added quarterback Ayden Pereira (1,813 passing yards and 853 rushing yards at Merrimack), running backs Lanear McCrary Jr. (1,128 yards from scrimmage at Shorter) and Savion Hart (1,041 yards from scrimmage at Georgetown), defensive tackle Mandjou Berte (12.5 TFLs at Wingate), edge rusher Xavier Esquillen (11.5 sacks at Savannah State), safety Deuce Lee (nine breakups at Monmouth) and corner Donovan Faria (6.5 TFLs, four passes defended at Gannon). Georgia State will have size, experience and a really low bar. That's not a terrible combination.
One big anniversary
Twenty-five years ago, the Sun Belt began sponsoring football. Long regarded as a home for delightful hoops -- remember Cedric Maxwell? Chris Gatling? Gene Bartow? Old Dominion's dominant women's teams? -- the Sun Belt took on a new identity after the waves of conference realignment in the early 1990s. After adding new schools (with football teams) like North Texas, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee to the roster alongside Arkansas State and Louisiana, the conference added Idaho and Louisiana-Monroe as football-only schools and pieced together its first football offering in 2001. (From that original lineup, only Arkansas State, Louisiana and ULM remain.)
The conference got an early boost from Middle Tennessee's upset of Vanderbilt in Week 1, but Year 1 belonged to North Texas. Actually, the entire early 2000s did. The Mean Green lost their first-ever Sun Belt game to ULM, 19-17, but won 18 straight from there and took the first four Sun Belt crowns. The Sun Belt title went through Denton at first. Now it goes through Harrisonburg.
