MLB betting tips for Saturday: Temper expectations for Wheeler, Eovaldi

Zack Wheeler struck out eight his last time out but could find strikeouts harder to come by Saturday. AP Photo/Charles Krupa

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Saturday's top batter prop bets

Daulton Varsho | OVER 0.5 HR (+660)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.48 EV

Ivan Herrera | OVER 0.5 HR (+507)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.59 EV

Curtis Mead | OVER 0.5 RBI (+214)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.44 EV

Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 RBI (+242)
Projection: 34% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.34 EV

Luis Arraez | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+124)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.07 EV

Saturday's top pitcher prop bets

Nathan Eovaldi | UNDER 6.5 K (+104)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.81 EV

Taj Bradley | UNDER 4.5 K (-163)
Projection: 77% chance of this bet hitting, with a $39.46 EV

Grant Holmes | OVER 4.5 K (+108)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.65 EV

Lucas Giolito | OVER 4.5 K (-105)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.64 EV

Zack Wheeler | UNDER 5.5 K (-101)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.62 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.

Cleveland Guardians Moneyline:
Moneyline bets on the Guardians have hit in seven straight away games. (+8.25 Units / 106% ROI). Current odds: +163

Tampa Bay Rays Run Line:
A bet on the Rays run line has won five straight. (+6.20 Units / 98% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -194

Cincinnati Reds Game Total Over:
The game total has gone over in 16 of the Reds' last 20 home games. (+11.35 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -108

Houston Astros Team Total Under:
A bet on the Astros' team total under has won on 16 of the last 20 games. (+10.60 Units / 43% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -135

Milwaukee Brewers Run Line:
A bet on the Brewers' run line has won eight of the last 10 at home. (+8.20 Units / 64% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ -130

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