At the start of the regular season, the 2025 Buffalo Bills were Super Bowl favorites at +650 and a whopping -350 to win the AFC East. Those lines would shorten to +400 and -2500, respectively, leading up to a Sunday night home game against the New England Patriots in Week 5.
A surprising 23-20 Patriots win foreshadowed a wild-card berth for the Bills, who dipped slightly under their 12.5 win total at 12-5 and were forced to go on the road in the AFC playoffs.
After losing in OT to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round, Buffalo fired head coach Sean McDermott and promoted OC Joe Brady. Despite the change, the Bills look poised to run it back as division favorites. The Bills have won 10-plus games in seven straight seasons and 11-plus in six straight, and relative success seems likely again when looking at their 2026 schedule. The Bills, who went 8-9 ATS and 9-8 O/U in 2025, enter this season with the eighth-hardest schedule based on opponents' win percentage from last season. -- Kevin Pulsifer
Note: Odds by DK Sports
and subject to change.
2026 outlook: Bills should be even better than last year
With the league's top difference-maker in Josh Allen, plus veteran player and coaching additions, you could bet the Bills to win the Super Bowl (+1000). Remember, new head coach Joe Brady, who moved up from the offensive coordinator role, will still manage playcalling for a balanced unit that averaged 27.1 PPG last season (third most). It's an explosive offense, one that added wide receiver DJ Moore this offseason, giving Allen a three-level target with catch-and-run juice. Plus, with Jim Leonhard taking over as the new defensive coordinator after serving as the Broncos' assistant head coach and defensive pass game coordinator the past two seasons, the Bills will feature a much more aggressive -- and pressure-heavy -- scheme. The arrow is pointing up here on Buffalo. -- Matt Bowen
Best bet: OVER 11.5 wins (+154)
I actually bumped the original win total from 10.5 to 11.5, making this a plus money bet, because I see a better Bills ball club here in '26 than the team that went 12-5 last season. Sure, the first five games on the schedule are challenging (at Houston, Detroit, LA Chargers, New England, at LA Rams). But with Allen, a veteran roster and the addition of Leonhard as the defensive playcaller, the Bills can hit the over and win the AFC East. -- Bowen
