All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Salvador Perez | OVER 0.5 HR (+598)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.52 EV
Manny Machado | OVER 0.5 RBI (+221)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.23 EV
Matt Olson | UNDER 0.5 H (+197)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.27 EV
Myles Straw | UNDER 0.5 H (+111)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.54 EV
Travis Bazzana | UNDER 0.5 H (+138)
Projection: 45% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.53 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Taj Bradley | UNDER 6.5 K (-145)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.63 EV
Brandon Pfaadt | OVER 2.5 ER (+106)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.42 EV
Randy Dobnak | UNDER 3.5 K (-150)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.73 EV
Shane Bieber | OVER 4.5 K (+121)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.83 EV
Michael McGreevy | UNDER 2.5 ER (-143)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.95 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Toronto Blue Jays Team Total UNDER:
Toronto has gone under this total in seven straight games. (+7.15 Units / 88% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -145
Kansas City Royals 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Royals have been under this total in five consecutive road contests. (+5.10 Units / 73% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -120
Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline:
The Diamondbacks are seeking to extend their four-game road winning streak. (+6.35 Units / 127% ROI). Current odds: +102
Atlanta Braves Game Total OVER:
Games at Truist Park have gone over this total in eight of the last 10 games played there. (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -106
