Week 1 wraps up with Patrick Mahomes making his return to action when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC).
I love Week 1 games with divisional opponents because it gives us a road map of what to look for based on previous head-to-head matchups, which includes personnel usage, scheme and more. And we get that here with Denver and K.C. on Monday night.
Yes, there is an unknown in this game with Mahomes after the season-ending knee injury in 2025. He's a natural mover and creator. Let's keep an eye on his mobility in this one. Now, going back to the Week 11 Broncos-Chiefs game last season (when Mahomes was on the field), Denver lowered their blitz rate slightly to 28.6% (down from their season average of 31.3%). And what do you get from the Denver secondary? A lot of single-high looks and man coverage.
Mahomes attempted 45 passes in that game, threw for 267 yards and was sacked three times. My take for Monday? Coach Andy Reid will use the run game -- and free agent addition Kenneth Walker III -- to control tempo out of multiple tight end sets. You don't want Mahomes dropping back 40-plus times versus this Denver pass rush.
On the offensive side for the Broncos, Davis Webb takes over as the new playcaller, though I expect to see coach Sean Payton's influence in the game plan, which includes the quicks and shot plays deigned for offseason addition Jaylen Waddle. Waddle fits the Denver route tree and the throwing traits of Bo Nix. The key here is Nix's ability to reads the heavy post-snap movement from Chiefs defense. In the backfield, we should look for a committee approach with J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and rookie Jonah Coleman versus a top-10 Kansas City run front.
Betting outlook
Do we feel that Mahomes is back to a point where he can take over critical moments of the game by extending plays outside of structure? Or does Reid have to craft a game plan that leans on running the ball and throwing quick from the pocket to counter a Denver pass rush that had an NFL-best 68 sacks last season?
I think it's a little of both, even if Mahomes is somewhat limited as a runner. Playing in Arrowhead helps here for Kansas City. That's the toughest road environment I ever experienced as a player (though Philly is close). The spread dipping under the three-point mark works, too. And when I look at Week 1 games, the value of coaching really jumps. We saw that in the 49ers-Rams game, right? And Reid has had an entire offseason to study a very multiple (and pressure-heavy) Denver defense. If Steve Spagnulo's defense can limit the after-the-catch production versus Denver (gotta tackle), while creating a few takeaways, this sets up a physical, low-scoring Chiefs' winner.
The bets: Chiefs -2.5 (-105), Walker receiving yards OVER 17.5 (-116)
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Bo Nix rushing yards OVER 16.5 (-108)
Eric Moody: Nix has averaged 23.1 rushing yards per game in his career. With the Chiefs allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game last season, Nix could rely more on his legs in this matchup. He cleared this line in 10 of 18 games last season, and even though he's returning from a broken ankle that kept him out of the AFC championship, there's a strong chance he clears this line on Monday night.
Travis Kelce receiving yards OVER 41.5 (-112)
Liz Loza: Kelce registered 42 or more receiving yards in 13 of 18 regular-season contests last season. Moreover, he has managed 43 or more receiving yards in five of his last six meetings against Denver. The Broncos' defense allowed an average of nearly 60 receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2025 (ninth most). With Mahomes working his way back into game shape, Kelce figures to serve as a reliable safety valve on primetime.
