After being one of the top teams in the 2025 regular season and falling just short of the NFL's championship game, the Los Angeles Rams opened as one of the favorites to win Super Bowl LXI. After a frenetic offseason that saw them bolster an already elite roster, the Rams' odds to win the big game have been pushed "over the top," according to bookmakers.
At +500, Los Angeles is the favorite to win the title for the 2026 season, with the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens the next closest teams at a distant 10-1, per DraftKings odds. Since 1995, that's the sixth-largest gap between the favorite and second favorite, according to data from SportsOddsHistory found by ESPN Research.
"This is about as short as a favorite tends to get in the NFL before the season starts," BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini told ESPN. "It tends to happen more in different sports, but football is more of a level playing field."
The Rams were already trending toward being the team to beat this season after trading for All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie from the Kansas City Chiefs in March. But then they really started running away with the market at the beginning of June when they acquired All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett from the Cleveland Browns. That transaction instantly boosted L.A. from +800 to +600 to win the Super Bowl.
"There's very few defensive players that can basically contribute to wins for a team, and he's one of those," Cipollini added. "He's probably good for about an extra win to a win-and-a-half on your team by having him on there, which is quite significant from a defensive player."
Check out our best bets on teams' win totals and teams to make the playoffs.
But just because the Rams' odds are very short doesn't mean they're a lock for the franchise's third Lombardi Trophy. Since 1995, all 23 teams with preseason Super Bowl odds of +500 or shorter have ultimately failed to win the title. The last team to accomplish the feat was the 1994 San Francisco 49ers, who were +200 before the season.
That hasn't stopped bettors from piling on Los Angeles in the championship futures market. All of the major sportsbooks polled say the Rams are easily the most bet-on team by tickets and money, and it's such a pronounced deluge that, even with their short odds, they are causing some trouble for bookmakers.
"It's usually not in this scenario of going into the season where we have a liability on the Super Bowl favorite," Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN. "That's usually not what people, especially at 5-1, are attracted to, but it's been one-way traffic here. So, I think the biggest adjustment has been on the Rams."
That said, a lot could still happen in the week leading up to and even after kickoff, with bettors perhaps gravitating toward longer shots for the title. DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that he doesn't foresee the Rams ultimately being a liability in his future book.
An open field
The Rams' dominance of this season's Super Bowl market is accentuated by the fact that last season's Super Bowl participants, the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, were preseason long shots for the title, both coming into the 2025 campaign at 60-1. Seattle of course is in the NFC West with Los Angeles, and, according to ESPN Research, the Seahawks are the first reigning champion to not be favored to win the division since the 2016 Denver Broncos, who were reeling from the retirement of Peyton Manning.
But in response to those underdog runs to the title game, sportsbooks are tightening up the midfield of championship odds for the 2026 season, with 16 teams -- half the league -- checking in at 25-1 or shorter. Avello notes that in the past, the top 10 odds would cap somewhere in the 20-1 range; for 2026, that's a three-way tie for eighth between the Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Patriots at 18-1.
"What those odds are telling you is that every one of those teams has somewhat of a chance, and they're all just kind of bunched in together," Cipollini said. "The main differences between those teams are actually pretty minimal at times. It's just kind of the nature of the NFL."
Of these midfield teams, the one attracting the most outsized action compared to their odds is the Broncos, who lost in the AFC Championship Game and show 20-1 odds to win this season's Super Bowl, according to DraftKings. All three bookmakers say the Broncos have attracted a fair amount of championship action, with Cipollini calling them the "biggest liability of realistic teams" after one bettor put down a $10,000 wager to win $200,000.
BetMGM's other big Super Bowl tickets include $10,000 bets each on the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas Cowboys, both at 16-1, to win $160,000. The bookmakers also point to the Bengals and Chicago Bears (24-1 at DraftKings) as two of the buzziest teams on the board.
Basically, even with the Rams as dominant favorites, the market sees this as anyone's game. That's perfectly fine for the sportsbooks.
"There was some parity last year, both in college and the NFL, which usually turns out to be good for us. If stuff is unpredictable, it's going to be very good for us," Feazel said. "So we never really anticipate if something is going to be predictable or unpredictable. It's really just going along and setting the odds as we feel should be set and just trying to find what those fair odds are for each team."
Long-shot liabilities
Bettors are also taking some fliers on teams outside of the strong middle class.
At DraftKings, the most prominent of those long shots is the New York Giants, who have accrued Super Bowl odds of 70-1 after a hyped offseason that saw them bring in John Harbaugh as head coach. Avello says that the Giants' status as a big-market team with fans around the country is contributing to their popularity, tacking onto the excitement of a respected head coach taking over a fun, young core.
"They're way up there for liability," he said. "If they have a successful start to the season, this liability is going to continue to grow. But I would say to start the season, they're one of the bigger liabilities that we've had."
BetMGM also counts the Pittsburgh Steelers (50-1) as one of its largest liabilities, with fans latching onto quarterback Aaron Rodgers' last dance in the NFL. The Las Vegas-based books, BetMGM and Caesars, also have some liability on the hometown Las Vegas Raiders (150-1) because of their long number and hype around the team with No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza.
Though these long numbers could cause bookmakers trouble down the line, for the time being, they're waiting for the rubber to hit the road before overreacting too much.
"We're totally aware that money's coming in and may continue to come in, but we haven't played a game yet. So we're trying to kind of hold the line on teams and give the bettors a really fair price before the season starts," Avello said. "Now, once we see a couple of these teams jump out and win a couple of games early or look really good or look really bad, then I think you'll see some major adjustments, but not at this point prior to the season."
One other thing to note on the farthest end of the long-shot spectrum: The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins come into the season with win totals of 3.5, per DraftKings odds, the lowest for any team since the 2017 New York Jets, according to ESPN Research. But the lines are juiced to the over, and the previous three teams with win totals this low did clear them by season's end.
Awards season
The NFL's Most Valuable Player award has truly morphed into a de facto "best quarterback" award. Eighteen of the past 19 recipients have been QBs, including the past 13 in a row.
It reflects in the odds, where the top 24 favorites for the award play the position. The first non-QB, running back Bijan Robinson, comes in at 100-1 -- longer than Daniel Jones and Tyler Shough at 90-1, per DraftKings odds
"In the NFL, most cases you have a handful of elite QBs every year you can circle who will probably win the MVP award," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee told ESPN.
Joe Burrow (+850 at DraftKings), perennially one of the most popular MVP contenders, comes into the 2026 season well-supported by the public again, with BetMGM reporting him as its top ticket attractor. Feazel notes Burrow is the only liability among the top three favorites, which also include Josh Allen (+600) and Lamar Jackson (+800).
Outside of that top tier, the quarterbacks attracting the most attention across the sportsbook marketplace are the Chargers' Justin Herbert (10-1) and the Bears' Caleb Williams (12-1). And believe it or not, the sportsbooks also report some outsized action on Shough, which, given his long odds, makes him a liability quickly.
One of the more interesting awards markets, given the lack of a true standout quarterback going into the season, is for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
With Mendoza ceding the Las Vegas starting job to Kirk Cousins, there are no rookies starting at QB to begin the 2026 season, a relative rarity. That means the top three favorites on the board are non-quarterbacks, with Jeremiyah Love (+550), Carnell Tate (+600) and Jadarian Price (+650) leading the way. Cipollini could see that changing throughout the season depending on how things shake out in position battles.
"Lateness in the season holds so much more weight. That's why Mendoza is still there [at +750] under the expectation that if he does start the season at Week 11, Week 12, he actually probably still has a decent chance to go ahead and win it," he said. "If somebody like Carson Beck starts at Week 6, Week 7, he's one that'll be in that conversation pretty quick just because he's a quarterback. If there's any injuries to maybe Matthew Stafford and Ty Simpson gets in, he'd suddenly fly up the ranks."
One big mover in the market has been 49ers wide receiver De'Zhaun Stribling, who shortened from 60-1 to +900 at Caesars after a slew of injuries at the position for San Francisco. He's also the largest ticket and handle attractor at BetMGM.
