Week 2 of the college football season rarely delivers one of the biggest games of the year, yet the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns for a night-game showdown.
After missing last year's playoff, Texas needs more than a respectable showing; another loss to Ohio State would put its playoff hopes under immediate pressure.
The Longhorns have dropped their past two meetings against the Buckeyes, and they'll need more offensive balance, Arch Manning to be protected and the defense to limit trips downfield if they want to take this game.
The stars at night will be big and bright, though the Heisman spotlight will shine brighter. Manning and Julian Sayin headline the quarterback duel, while Jeremiah Smith gives Ohio State a trophy-worthy receiving option.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Texas -1.5, O/U 48.5
Moneyline: Texas (-118), Ohio State (-102)
Over/Under: 48.5 (O -115, U -105)
Ohio State: Complete and repeatable
Ohio State's Week 1 performance was complete in the areas that tend to travel throughout the season. The Buckeyes posted the nation's best passing grade, earned the No. 2 coverage grade and generated 25 total pressures (double that of Texas). Overall, the Buckeyes' passing offense remained efficient throughout the game, the secondary consistently closed throwing windows and the pass rush kept disrupting the pocket.
They also ran for 249 yards while forcing 15 missed tackles (also double that of Texas). Perhaps the yardage isn't repeatable, but that balance shows it's not dependent on matchup breaking their way. If Texas can't cover ground, Sayin can attack downfield. If Texas drops extra defenders into coverage, Ohio State has two backs in Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson who are capable of creating after contact against a Texas defense that struggled tackling, allowing 349 total yards and 3.9 yards per carry in its Week 1 opener.
Sayin averaged 13.1 air yards per attempt without recording a turnover-worthy play. Texas may want to manufacture pressure after an underwhelming Week 1 showing from its pass rush. Sending additional rushers could be a dangerous trade if Sayin continues identifying the open space behind the blitz.
There are fair concerns. Ohio State was vulnerable against the run, its tackling also graded poorly and Sayin took two sacks on only four pressured dropbacks. Texas is far more capable of exposing those weaknesses than Ball State was.
Overall, Ohio State gave us the better blueprint, showing structure first and fireworks second.
Texas: They have a path
The Longhorns have a path that likely doesn't involve Manning trading clean-pocket throws with Sayin all night. Arch also faced pressure on only four dropbacks against Texas State, so the biggest question entering the season remains unanswered; we know Manning can punish a defense when the picture is clean. What we still don't know is whether he's becoming a lower-variance quarterback when the pocket collapses.
Can he take the boring short-to-intermediate completion, live for the next down and avoid gunslinging his way out of trouble? Against Ohio State, that restraint will matter more than his arm talent.
The better path may be through the ground game. Arch's mobility gives Texas another way to make plays, avoiding obvious passing downs to prevent Ohio State's pass rush from dictating the game. That also means Hollywood Smothers probably needs a larger role after producing 70 yards and 50 yards after contact.
The path Texas chooses starts with playing at home. The Longhorns pass protection was substantially better at home last season. If Texas can protect Manning, and the defense can generate real pressure without constantly blitzing -- and improve its tackling -- then the path is there.
Prediction: Ohio State +105
Ohio State +2 is defensible. Two points offers limited protection in college football though and I believe the Buckeyes are more likely to win, so I'll take the plus money.
Texas' 59-7 opener was misleadingly clean. The Longhorns gave up yards, allowed 8-of-14 third downs and welcomed its opponent to three red zone trips. Ohio State, by comparison, was one of only a handful of teams that didn't allow a single red zone attempt in Week 1.
It was the three takeaways from Texas that kept that movement from becoming points. Texas can't rely on those takeaways to cover every defensive mistake again.
I would make Ohio State the slight favorite even in Austin. The Buckeyes have the better combination of passing offense, coverage and pass rush, plus the more convincing rushing production. It's that pass rush that I expect to separate the teams. If the Buckeyes can pressure Manning without blitzing, they can keep their coverage intact and force him into high-variance throws.
The betting market is charging for Texas' home field advantage. I'm betting that Ohio State's matchups advantages travel.
