Week 2 of the college football season sees the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners head to Ann Arbor after a shutout victory at home. The Michigan Wolverines, meanwhile, dropped out of the AP Top 25 following a controversial win over Western Michigan.
Now comes the response test for both. Will Michigan move past last week's drama and deliver a cleaner performance against a stronger opponent? How will Oklahoma handle its first road environment of the season?
The buildup hopes for chaos. The game itself could be far less exciting. Michigan found one second last week. This week, viewers may spend four quarters of regulation searching for offense.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
No. 11 Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan
Saturday, Noon ET, FOX
Line: Oklahoma -5.5, O/U 43.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma (-230), Michigan (+190)
Over/Under: 43.5 (O -112, U -108)
Oklahoma: Week 1's 51 points come with a fine print
In Oklahoma's Week 1 matchup against UTEP, the Sooners scored 51 points in a home shutout. The box score was flattery. QB John Mateer threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. Solid. The fine print is that UTEP blitzed him on 14 of 18 dropbacks. Every one of those passing yards came against the blitz.
When UTEP rushed without blitzing, Mateer went 0-of-4. Four attempts does not make a weakness. Still, it gives the Wolverines a roadmap. Michigan can rush four, keep its coverage intact and make Mateer work through a more crowded view. The Wolverines best Week 1 work came in coverage, run defense and tackling, all of which can turn Oklahoma's explosives into longer drives.
If Mateer can't get it done through the air, the OU running game has more substance. Its offensive line blocked well, allowing Lloyd Avant to create plenty after contact. Plus, there's depth in the backfield. Michigan does present a different challenge though because it finished tackles clean against Western Michigan. The same yards the Sooners generated against UTEP won't be there against Michigan in the Big House.
In last year's matchup, Mateer worked around the issues at hand via 19 carries with a heavy share of the offense running through his abilities. That's where I ultimately land with Oklahoma: the more trustworthy offense, just not the automatic scoring machine the 51 points suggests.
Michigan: The problems start before the pressure arrives
Scoreboard drama aside, Michigan's concern is that QB Bryce Underwood looked inexperienced, recording five turnover-worthy plays against WMU, including four from a clean pocket. His decisions and ball placement created instability. Not what you want to see from a second-year quarterback expected to make a jump.
The short passing game was especially alarming. Those throws are supposed to keep the offense on schedule and give him easy completions. Instead, Underwood put the ball in danger on nearly half of those attempts. His only touchdown under pressure came on the game-winning 47-yard completion with one second found left on the clock. His other four-pressured attempts ... incomplete.
Michigan has an obvious counter, using Underwood's legs, which led him to lead the team in rushing yards. Designed quarterback runs could keep the offense out of passing situations, but even that carries danger after he fumbled twice in the opener.
The Wolverines need Underwood to play smart football by protecting possession and letting Michigan's defense control the game. Until he proves he can do that, every drive carries more risk than Michigan can absorb.
Best bet: UNDER 43.5
Oklahoma's defense travels better than its offense. Last year, the Sooners went 4-1 in true road games. So this isn't an argument that they can't win away from Norman or that they'll lose in Ann Arbor. The argument is that its offense simply became far less efficient, especially through the air.
Oklahoma's road wins were instead built on defense and field position rather than consistent scoring. That same defense can contain Underwood's legs, forcing him to try and make sound decisions from the pocket. Since Michigan's offense committed multiple turnovers while putting the ball at risk too often, that could be a tall ask.
That's one reason for liking the UNDER.
Michigan's defense strengthens the other side of the equation. The Wolverines allowed only field goals despite spending more than 40 minutes on the field and defending three red zone possessions. The areas in which they excelled can prevent OU's high scoring opener from traveling to Ann Arbor.
Neither defense allowed a touchdown in Week 1, a strength that carried over from last season. Oklahoma can control the game, still struggle to score, while Michigan may have an even harder time moving the ball. In other words, punts and field goals.
