College football returned with points aplenty in Week 1. The betting results were almost as eventful. After a strong Week 0, Week 1 brought a bump in the road: a couple of wagers fell short, a few reads proved useful and one prediction was simply wrong. Chalk it up to early season growing pains.
The goal for Week 2 is to not overreact to one-game sample or chase numbers that have already moved.
Here's a look at what both myself and Mark Zinno have for this week.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Louisiana Tech Team Total UNDER 9.5 at LSU
I originally liked LSU laying -34. The market has since pushed that spread to -36. I'm not interested in chasing the Tigers after the move. They could still cover, and you could still create a habit of getting the worst number.
What hasn't changed is Louisiana Tech's team total, which still sits at 9.5. It's the best way to attack this matchup.
LA Tech scored an insane 80 points in their season opener, which was impressive even against Northwestern State. This is an entirely different defensive assignment. LSU held Clemson to 145 total yards, showing it can erase explosive plays and force an offense to attempt sustained drives. Tech QB Blake Baker generated most of his passing production between the numbers while facing almost zero pressure. LSU is built to take those explosives away.
If the passing plays aren't there, the Bulldogs' offensive line didn't create enough movement in the run game, leaving LA Tech with no dependable way to create plays. Getting to 10 points likely requires at least two legitimate scoring possessions. I don't see two reliable paths to points.
I'm isolating LA Tech's offense because Lane Kiffin made it clear (in a leaked locker room video) that he wants LSU to keep hammering the pressure and making statements against opponents, regardless of the score. A coach who wants to play bully ball could have LSU threaten the game total by themselves.
The UNDER 7.5 (+105) is tempting because seven is the most likely outcome for Louisiana Tech. It just doesn't offer enough additional value. I'll take the straightforward UNDER 9.5.
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State 1st Half UNDER 26.5
The full-game UNDER was my first read although the total moved from 51 to 49.5. Eastern Michigan has played two games, and neither the Eagles nor their opponents have scored a single first-quarter point. The offense has needed time to find rhythm. QB Noah Kim now faces a Michigan State pass rush capable of creating pressure without sacrificing additional defenders in coverage.
The first quarter UNDER 10.5 fits the same logic. However, laying -145 is simply too expensive for such a small sample, especially when one turnover or special teams could ruin the wager. Playing the first half wager is a reasonable price that accounts for the slow EMU starts, while removing the late-game volatility.
Last week's Toledo/Michigan State UNDER missed by 1.5 points. The Spartans allowed 20 points against Toledo, though 14 came on touchdown plays of 60 and 71 yards with the latter coming in the fourth quarter. Outside of isolated explosives, Michigan State controlled possession and forced Toledo to operate with very few sustained possessions. Under 26.5 gives both teams room to score without requiring a completely stagnant game.
Memphis +8.5 at Boise State
The move from Boise State 7.5 to 8.5 could be a result of the Broncos' competitive 34-27 loss to then-No. 2 Oregon in Week 1.
In this home matchup against the Memphis Tigers, the Broncos are the rightful favorites. Maddux Madsen is the better quarterback, as he played well under heavy pressure against Oregon and now gets Memphis' lighter coverage. The Memphis defense, however, does have four forced interceptions through two games played. Although that shouldn't be treated as a repeatable defensive strength, it is indicative that the opportunities could be there considering Madsen only completed 52% of his throws.
The 8.5 margin is where I disagree with the market move. Memphis' rushing advantage is too large. RBs Jaylin Carter and Manny Covey are consistently creating after contact averaging nearly seven yards per rush between the two, while the team collectively has had 15 explosive runs beyond 10 yards. In comparison, Boise failed to generate even one run of at least 10 yards against Oregon. Those breakaways can generate quick scores for the Tigers.
Memphis can control stretches of the game keeping Madsen off the field, reducing the number of possessions Boise has to create separation. For an added sweat, the +280 moneyline is worth a percentage of your typical one-unit wage because Memphis has a credible path to control the game. -- Pamela Maldonado
Mark Zinno's bets to consider
Heisman watch: Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida Gators (200-1)
The Gators aren't getting much attention ... yet. That's particularly true on offense, where offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner put Haynes King in the Heisman conversation last season at Georgia Tech. Florida's offense will play fast and look to score often. I know that no one wants to pick anyone other than a quarterback to win this award at this point, but Baugh will end up being one of the top running backs in the country this season.
Faulker loves to run the ball, and Baugh has the break-away speed to spark some long touchdown runs. I'm getting in super early here for a small amount, and I won't be surprised to see Baugh in the conversation to be in New York in December.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini UNDER 51.5
I'm again taking an Illini under because the numbers tell me so. The Illini scored 42 points last week. This included completing a Hail Mary, a pick-six and being out-gained by UAB, while somehow only possessing the ball for only 18:57. I don't believe this offense to be that potent. When they played Duke last year, they won 45-19 but were also outgained by Duke in the game and got five turnovers to assist in their scoring.
There's a ton of variance -- or luck -- for the Illinois offense. On the other side, the Duke offense is considerably worse after losing Darian Mensah in the portal. They only managed 17 points against Tulane last week. That won't play against the Illini defense here.
Clemson Tigers 1H -12.5
This is the ultimate "buy low" spot on the Tigers. It's fair to say that Clemson had zero chance against LSU last week and that game was more indicative of how good LSU is, not how bad Clemson is. Dabo Swinney has already been confrontational with the media, which is a sign that he's not happy and expects much more of his team. If Clemson is really as bad as they showed last week, I'm willing to pay for it here to prove it.
When Georgia Southern Eagles has been asked to step up in class against better conference opponents over the last two years, they averaged giving up over 52 points in those games. If Clemson isn't leading by at least two touchdowns at half here, the boos could be coming down harder than the rain prior to the game against LSU last week.
Sam Houston Bearkats +13.5
I will likely wait until closer to kick-off here to see if 14 materializes, but Tulsa is due for a letdown after upsetting Oklahoma State for the second straight season. Last year, the Golden Hurricane dropped a home game to Tulane after beating the Pokes, now they are going out on the road in this spot. Tulsa was outgained last week and was the benefactor of four turnovers. The Bearkats outgained Troy last week in a three-point loss and were paced by QB Landyn Locke's 335 yards passing. If he has similar success here, I think the Bearkats are live for an upset.
USC Trojans 1H -19.5
The Trojans may have the best offense in the country and there's no reason to think that they would slow down here. They have averaged 29 points in the first half through two games this season. The Cajuns gave up over 30 points per game last year and only returned three starters on defense. It should be a feast for Jayden Maiava & Co. as he continues to state an early case for the Heisman. The USC defense should be able to continue their dominance over weaker opponents. Coach Lincoln Riley will also use this game early to prepare for the Trojans first conference game at Rutgers next week.
