The national championship market was relatively quiet after Week 2 of the college football season, with only minor adjustments for Notre Dame, Georgia and Miami. Oregon was the clear exception, nearly doubling from +950 to +1800 after losing to Oklahoma State, while everyone else basically held steady.
It's the same story for Ohio State and Texas, after the Longhorns rallied from a 20-point deficit to beat the Buckeyes 24-23 in one of the biggest games of the season. What does this mean for the markets going forward? Let's break it down.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Ohio State to win national championship: +510
Last week: +550
Naturally you'd expect Ohio State's national title odds to get longer after the loss to Texas. Instead, they moved from +550 to +510. It sounds weird, yet makes sense based on how the game played out. Ohio State went on the road against one of the best teams in the country, built a 23-3 lead and outgained Texas in total yards. The Buckeyes controlled most of the game, but just couldn't finish it; they gave up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by a single point.
Since it's not a Big Ten loss, Ohio State's road to winning its conference and reaching the playoff is still there. Basically, the market cared more about what Ohio State showed for three quarters than the final result. I get that, and the Buckeyes still look capable of winning a national title. I'm just not buying +510 after watching them blow a 20-point lead.
Texas to win national championship: +650
Last week: +650
After beating Ohio State, Texas became the new No. 1 and its national title odds stayed the same. The win improved Texas' résumé and gave some protection in the playoff race, but the performance didn't make the Longhorns more likely to win the whole thing. Texas was bad offensively for three quarters, then changed its approach by leaning into the run and short passing game to score three straight fourth-quarter touchdowns.
That explains why the miss playoff price moved from +154 to +280, while UNDER 9.5 wins moved from -142 to +134.
The Longhorns still have a difficult schedule ahead, including at the Tennessee Volunteers, at LSU Tigers, at Texas A&M Aggies plus Ole Miss Rebels at home and Oklahoma Sooners on a neutral field. In the preseason, I said fade the Longhorns until they proved they could beat better competition. The first test was passed. The next is proving that their fourth-quarter adjustment can become their normal offense, rather than a one-quarter breakthrough when at home.
Futures prediction: Ohio State UNDER 9.5 wins (+105)
Ohio State has now lost three of its last four games with its lone win against Ball State. My preseason prediction for the Buckeyes was UNDER 10.5 wins (-200). The loss at Texas puts that pick in a great spot.
For a new wager, let's take it one step further. That means Ohio State has to lose two more games -- which sounds crazy being a year removed from a historical red zone defense, but it's realistic based on what's left.
Ohio State still has road games to play at Indiana and at USC, which are the two spots I see with the greater chance to become losses. Ohio State generated almost no pass rush against Texas late in the game. USC has the exact offense capable of exploiting that weakness, while Indiana has offensive balance capable of explosives.
Oregon, Iowa and Michigan aren't automatic, so none of these three should be dismissed either. All three have defenses or styles capable of dragging Ohio State into the kind of game it failed to finish at Texas.
I'm passing on Ohio State to miss the playoff at +225, because a 9-3 Buckeyes team could still find a way in. Under 9.5 lets us bet against the regular-season schedule without having to predict what the committee does.
The Heisman market saw some major changes and some other names keep roughly the same odds. Oregon QB Dante Moore dropped from 13-1 to 60-1 after the Ducks' loss to Oklahoma State, QB Trinidad Chambliss remained at 13-1 while Ole Miss was idle and WR Jeremiah Smith was the only major riser, moving from 10-1 to +700 despite Ohio State's loss.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+700)
Last week: 10-1
The move from 15-1 preseason to +700 after Week 2 isn't unreasonable because Smith very well may be the best player in the country. He has 315 receiving yards and three touchdowns through two games -- including 164 yards at Texas -- putting him on a 12-game pace for 1,890 yards and 18 scores. That's Heisman-winning production, even for a receiver.
He needs to keep that pace for an entire season, which is why I'm not calling it the best value on the board. If Ohio State drops another game or two, Smith has to be the most impressive player in those games regardless of the outcome.
If you believe in Smith, this is probably the last playable window. The stretch at Indiana, at USC and home dates vs. Oregon and Michigan could decide the award. USC could become the shootout where Smith produces his Heisman moment, while Indiana may test whether he can dominate when Ohio State can't dictate.
Waiting for confirmation means likely accepting a worse number. I would take the 7-1 now.
