Every fantasy draft turns on a breakout or two -- the player you reach for a round early because you're convinced this is the year it finally clicks. Hit on one and you've got a star at a role-player price. The catch is that "convinced" usually comes down to a hot preseason, a shiny new linemate, or a highlight that lodged in your brain in April.
So instead of guessing who looks ready, I went the other way. I pulled every forward who has actually broken out since 2009-10 and asked what they had in common at the moment it happened, what was true when the breakout happened.
Two things carry more signal than you'd expect: how old a player was, and how many NHL games he already had under him. Break out much younger and you're just betting on talent; much older and you're chasing an outlier that barely happens. There's a window, and it's narrower than the eye test would ever guess.
Here's the quick version of what I'm calling "ready":
The median fantasy points per game (FPPG) across the 1,700 individual top-100 forward seasons since 2009-10 is 1.90, and that's the bar we set for a breakout.
Using all game logs since the 2009-10 season, there are 299 forwards that have made more than one appearance among the top 100 for fantasy scoring. This purposefully excludes any one-time flukes.
Of those 299 forwards, 177 made their debut in 2009-10 or later, meaning we have complete game logs for their entire career.
Of those 177 forwards, 124 eventually held a rolling 41-game FPPG average above 1.90 for at least 41 consecutive games -- a half-season at that pace at minimum, and often longer.
The average age those 124 forwards had reached when that breakout run began was 24 years, 74 days (with the majority doing it between 21 years, 303 days and 26 years, 88 days).
The average experience those 124 forwards had when that run began was 250 games played (with the majority doing it between 142 and 399).
So those are the coordinates. What follows are the forwards sitting inside that window right now who haven't gotten there yet -- because a player who's already banked a top-100 season isn't a breakout, he's a known quantity. These are the ones the math says are due.
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The breakouts
Ridly Greig, C, Ottawa Senators (24.1 years old, 1.24 FPPG in 247 games played): Admittedly, Greig isn't my first choice from the list of qualified players, but he's listed first because he is almost exactly the breakout age and experience. He's also going to find himself with a regular top-six role based on the Sens' current depth chart.
Jack Quinn, RW, Buffalo Sabres (25.0 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 260 games played): There are a few different configurations that could play out for the Sabres' scoring lines, but Quinn is firmly in the mix to be a part of them on the wings. There is even a conceivable path here that lands him with top power-play time if he can take the next step.
Matt Coronato, RW, Calgary Flames (23.8 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 192 games played): Has a door been this wide open for young prospects to take the leap before? The Flames' teardown has left them with no choice but to thrust players like Coronato into the limelight. Just watch out for that plus-minus if your custom league still uses it.
Bobby Brink, RW, Minnesota Wild (25.2 years old, 1.15 FPPG in 214 games played): Brink was on his way to a 20-goal season with the Flyers in limited ice time, before the trade to the Wild further cut into his opportunities. Now, Minnesota has some flexibility for new faces to earn key roles and Brink will be in the mix.
Logan Stankoven, C, Carolina Hurricanes (23.5 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 183 games played): The Stanley Cup playoffs were a coming out party for Stankoven, who could have earned himself a Conn Smythe Trophy if Jordan Staal's goals weren't more timely. His line with Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall should hit the ground running in the regular season.
Egor Chinakhov, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (25.6 years old, 1.19 FPPG in 247 games played): Remember the key breakout threshold we set was high, at 1.90 FPPG. Well, Chinkhov had 1.88 FPPG over the final 43 games of the season after the trade to the Penguins. He essentially already broke out, even if the math didn't quite catch it on a technicality.
Mackie Samoskevich, LW, Seattle Kraken (23.8 years old, 1.23 FPPG in 156 games played): Seattle spent a first-round pick to spring him from Florida's forward logjam, specifically to turn loose his shooter's mentality on a scoring line, likely alongside Shane Wright. He lived among the league leaders in shots per 60 (64th among forwards with at least 100 minutes) on limited Panthers ice time; give him the minutes and the counting stats follow.
Mavrik Bourque, C, Nashville Predators (24.6 years old, 1.06 FPPG in 156 games played): Nashville gave him $33 million and a projected second-line center job -- a massive linemate upgrade for a guy who broke out for 20 goals buried in Dallas' bottom six.
Connor McMichael, C, St. Louis Blues (25.6 years old, 1.21 FPPG in 315 games played): The Jordan Kyrou trade sent him to St. Louis, and his 26-goal, 57-point 2024-25 is the reminder of his top-six ceiling. Just note the Blues also added Mason McTavish down the middle, so McMichael may shuffle between center and wing. The minutes stay top-six, the exact role won't.
Emil Heineman, LW, New York Islanders (24.8 years old, 1.29 FPPG in 148 games played): Riding Bo Horvat's wing, Heineman busted out for 22 goals against just nine assists -- a lopsided line that pegs him as a finisher, not a facilitator. If he holds that top-line spot the goals are real, but treat him as a goals-and-hits multi-category piece and keep the points expectations in check.
Jackson Blake, RW, Carolina Hurricanes (23.1 years old, 1.25 FPPG in 162 games played): Blake closed the playoffs on Carolina's most dangerous line, flanking Stankoven and Hall for a plus-30 across 19 games. That trio should open the year intact on a Cup contender, making the 23-year-old a cheap ticket into one of the league's better even-strength units.
Shane Wright, C, Seattle Kraken (22.7 years old, 1.31 FPPG in 169 games played): We've been penciling in a Wright breakout since draft night, and the pedigree has cashed exactly zero of those checks so far. The difference this time isn't the talent, it's that he's finally banked enough NHL games to be sitting right in the breakout window, with a top-six role that's his to lose.
Marco Kasper, C, Detroit Red Wings (22.4 years old, 1.25 FPPG in 159 games played): Kasper's sophomore crash to nine goals on a 6.9 shooting percentage screams undervalued, especially now that he's healthy after gutting through a knee injury. The swing factor is Dylan Larkin, as a trade vaults Kasper into a top-six role where the shooting luck corrects. If Larkin stays, he's more of a late-round dart.
Frank Nazar, C, Chicago Blackhawks (22.6 years old, 1.43 FPPG in 122 games played): With Connor Bedard shelved into November following shoulder surgery, Nazar will be leaned on in the early season. He buried only 15 of 138 shots last season, so positive regression is coming, and the Bedard-less minutes are his runway to cash in before the role tightens up.
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You again?
A few players were highlighted for this same list last season, but are still in the wheelhouse for a breakout. It's never too late.
Luke Evangelista, RW, New Jersey Devils (24.5 years old, 1.18 FPPG in 253 games played): Surprising late offseason trade to the Devils aside, Evangelista was making this list regardless. He has the skills and budding experience to break through as a fantasy-relevant winger. He's a lock for an opportunity alongside either Nico Hischier or Jack Hughes, which is arguably more enticing than the same top-six chances in Nashville.
Kent Johnson, LW, Columbus Blue Jackets (23.9 years old, 1.14 FPPG in 274 games played): Johnson already flashed the ceiling -- 57 points in 2024-25 -- before a shoulder injury and a career-worst 6.1 shooting percentage buried the followup. But a breakout absolutely requires him to beat out Valeri Nichushkin and/or Conor Garland for the top power-play unit.
Cole Perfetti, LW, Winnipeg Jets (24.7 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 290 games played): We keep waiting on the power-play leap, and Perfetti keeps getting stranded on the wrong unit, with just six power-play points last season despite career-high man-advantage minutes. He's shown 50-point ability, so if Winnipeg finally hands him a true PP1 look behind Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, the breakout follows; until then he's a late-round bet on that door opening.
Tyson Foerster, RW, Philadelphia Flyers (24.6 years old, 1.54 FPPG in 195 games played): Foerster carries the highest floor in this tier, thanks to an elite shot and a top-six role with Trevor Zegras plus PP1 time. A November surgery wiped out most of his 2025-26, but he'd banked 13 goals in 29 games before it, and with a healthy runway for once, the 30-goal season people keep projecting becomes the base case.
Mason McTavish, C, St. Louis Blues (23.6 years old, 1.46 FPPG in 304 games played): The former No. 3 pick finally gets a change of scenery in St. Louis, where a projected second-line center job behind Robert Thomas could unlock the offense that stalled in Anaheim. His 2025-26 (41 points in 75 games) underwhelmed, but he's only 23 with real pedigree.
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