ESPN's basketball daily cheat sheet is your pregame destination before you lock in daily fantasy and betting decisions for that night's games. Here you'll find our top insights for the slate, including players to target for your daily fantasy rosters, along with game-by-game injury reports.
What you need to know for Saturday
Legacies are on the line. Will Victor Wembanyama secure the crown years before his expected coronation? Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander break free of the relentless defensive attention that has been sent his way?
The Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in a Game 7 (8 p.m. ET on NBC) that feels historic before the first shot is even taken.
The Thunder are positioned as slight favorites, reflecting their home-court dominance in the playoffs the past several seasons. The Thunder are 17-3 with a nearly 18-point differential at home over the past two postseasons. But Oklahoma City won't have Ajay Mitchell or Jalen Williams in the lineup Friday and will need its role players to support SGA in the scoring column.
On the other side, the Spurs have come out blazing from the first whistle in their three wins in this series. If success from deep surfaces early in this game, San Antonio will earn clean lanes to the basket. Wembanyama has been the best player on the floor in the series, and the Spurs need that to prove true one more time to advance.
With several emergent stars and a deep cast of important role players populating these rosters, the menu for prop bets and DFS decisions feels far richer than a traditional single-game slate. With an eye toward uncovering compelling betting angles and daily fantasy decisions, let's take a look at the game ahead.
McCormick's bets for Saturday
Total points UNDER 212.5 (-105)
Since 2003, conference finals and NBA Finals Game 7's have gone under 12 of 13 occurrences. By this stage of the marathon, teams are often out of energy, bodies and adjustments. Both teams have deep casts of capable and physical defenders. When it comes to the total, I'm siding with both history and matchup trends.
Alex Caruso OVER 11.5 points (-101)
In OKC's three wins and a competitive double-overtime loss, Caruso has averaged 21 points. To be fair, this is a small sample. Then again, it's not merely shot variance driving Caruso's scoring surge, it's also his expanded role as the team's second-most reliable ball-handler. The Thunder need Caruso to score, something that wasn't true for the majority of the past two seasons. The touches, shots and usage rate are there to support another double-digit scoring outcome from Caruso.
Top Daily Fantasy Values of the Day
$15,000+ salaries
Victor Wembanyama, C, Spurs ($19,500): The choice is whether to roster Wemby or SGA as your building block in lineups. The case for Wembanyama is clear; he has posted at least 55 DraftKings points in four of six games thus far, a threshold Gilgeous-Alexander has hit just once in the series. It's likely both have massive lines, but Wembanyama simply has the higher ceiling.
$11,000-$14,900 salaries
Stephon Castle, SG, Spurs ($13,200): The Thunder simply don't have a No. 2 option with the blend of floor and upside Castle brings to the floor. Not only does he handle importation creation duties for the Spurs, Castle is special in transition and in collecting turnovers and rebounds. There are several paths to big numbers for Castle.
$1,500-$10,900 salaries
Alex Caruso, SF/PF, Thunder ($9,600): Shares of Caruso and Jared McCain could prove rewarding today, as the Thunder will need complementary scoring to compete. Caruso, somewhat like Castle, has several paths to a fun fantasy line. Not only has his scoring surfaced in this series, but the two-way glue work also leads to a collection of steals, assists and rebounds.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: Spurs +3.5 (-108) | Thunder -3.5 (-112)
Money line: Spurs +130 | Thunder -155
Total: 212.5 (-112 O, -108 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 2.8, straight up 59%, 220.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Spurs: David Jones Garcia, (OFS - Ankle)
Thunder: Ajay Mitchell, (OUT - Calf); Jalen Williams, (OUT - Hamstring); Thomas Sorber, (OFS - Knee)
