Decision 4.0 is finally complete, with LeBron James taking his talents to the Philadelphia 76ers for his 24th (and possibly 25th) NBA seasons. NBA free agency, which had been on unofficial hold until James made his new team known, can finally get back underway.
Based on their current roster, the 76ers are looking at a potential starting five of Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, James and Joel Embiid. On paper, that is a powerhouse lineup, but the 76ers' end game is to win their first NBA championship since 1983 ... the year before James was born. That means there will be a premium placed on trying to have the team healthy for the playoffs. Which in turn means that, during the regular-season 82-game marathon, the 76ers are very likely to lean more heavily on their younger, healthier stars than on their pair of former MVPs.
Since winning his last championship in 2020, James has played in 74% of the available regular-season games, or about 61 games per year. Since winning his MVP in 2023, Embiid has played in 39% of the available regular-season games; 32 games per year. If those rates held true we might expect to see James and Embiid on the court together for fewer than 25 regular-season games this season. Which would make it reasonable to project this 76ers squad three ways: with James and Embiid, with James but without Embiid, and without James.
The Sixers with James and Embiid
When all five starters are healthy, the 76ers would have five strong scorers on the floor. Edgecombe is coming off an excellent rookie season in which he showed definite 20-plus PPG potential, and all four other starters have averaged more than 28 PPG at least once in the past four seasons. But there's only one ball, so obviously everyone can't score at that level at the same time. The most obvious player to step back his scoring and play more of a facilitating role is James, who just showed the ability and willingness to do so for the Lakers last season next to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. James is also the best natural playmaker on the 76ers, so him taking on a role with fewer shots and more distributing would result in assists for James as well as higher field goal percentages for the rest of the starters.
The other major, new addition to this team is Brown. In addition to being a major scorer, Brown also traditionally likes to score in the midrange, similar areas to where Embiid likes to operate. When Embiid is available, he likely takes priority on offense because his size and abilities are such a mismatch versus any opponent. And, at this point in his career, Embiid needs to make his impact more on offense since he doesn't have the consistent explosiveness to be the defensive and rebounding difference-maker he once was. The upshot of this dynamic is that, when all five are healthy, Embiid's dominance from midrange and in likely pushes the other starters to attack more from the perimeter.
Put these two dynamics together, and I picture Maxey, Brown and Embiid as mid-20s scorers with James and Edgecombe in the mid-teens. James and Maxey could both average 6-plus assists, keeping the offense moving enough for everyone to shoot well from the field. James and Embiid likely lead the team in rebounds, though both Brown and Edgecombe could be solid rebounders from the wing as well. And all four non-Embiid starters could average two or more 3PG, with Embiid over 1 3PG himself.
The Sixers with James and without Embiid
Based on the current roster, Adem Bona would project to start at center when Embiid is out. Bona is a solid role player, more of a defender/rebounder than a scorer. So, with Embiid out, there would be more shots available and more space in the midrange-in from which the rest of the 76ers could operate. This might allow James to function as a hub from the post more regularly, creating cutting opportunities for Brown and Edgecombe. And each of Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe would have more space to operate midrange-in as scorers with Maxey in particular able to use dribble penetration to create for both himself and teammates.
Statistically, the biggest difference in this scenario is likely a slight uptick in scoring opportunity for the four other starters. I would still see Brown and Maxey as mid-20s scorers, but maybe upper-mid as opposed to lower-mid. I could see Edgecombe's scoring increasing the most, with his youthful aggressiveness getting him up closer to around 20 PPG while James gets more into the upper teens.
The Sixers without James
When James isn't on the court, Maxey goes back to being the primary offensive creator. When Embiid is out there, he has shown he can be a secondary offensive hub, but when he does he is a scorer first and a passer second. The ball would likely be more sticky all the way around without James out there, which could lead to lower field goal percentages for the other players. The other big forward replacement options are more role players, but (particularly when Embiid is available) the 76ers could move Brown to the four and play with an extra man on the perimeter. And sixth man Anfernee Simons is a scorer that is likely to shoot at a similar rate to James.
Statistically, I would see Maxey and Brown as mid-20s-plus scorers in this lineup without James and Embiid, but lower-mid-20s scorers with Embiid in the mid- to upper-20s when the big fella is on the court. Maxey and Embiid both see upticks in assists in this scenario.
The fantasy bottom line
James joining the 76ers is a major boon to the team's NBA championship aspirations, but on the whole, it likely negatively impacts the fantasy outlook for all involved. In each of the three scenarios I laid out, there are just fewer shots available even with James playing an attenuated, support role. With that said, all five starters would still be fantasy impact players based upon their availability.
Maxey goes from potentially top 12 to more like top 25 in both points and category leagues. Brown slides to top 40. Edgecombe to top 75 in points leagues, still top 100 in categories.
James and Embiid are the hardest to project because of the availability questions, but those questions were there before today's decision. Say that James slides in the rankings from top 40 to top 60ish ... I'd still have trouble believing he'd last into the fifth round of most leagues unless there's a full-on announcement that he plans to take a major step back, but if he does play only 60ish games as the third or fourth option, top 60 could be generous. And Embiid remains a top-25 player when he's on the court, but more like a borderline top-100 pick if he continues to play in fewer than 40% of the available games.
