Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Tight end adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2024 xFP leaderboard for tight ends:
2024 xFP: Tight Ends (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Trey McBride , ARI 261 250 -11 16 108 1036 8 2. Brock Bowers , LV 244 263 19 17 106 1072 5 3. Travis Kelce , KC 233 195 -38 16 97 976 6 4. Jonnu Smith , MIA 191 222 31 17 83 759 5 5. George Kittle , SF 182 237 55 15 66 746 7 6. Zach Ertz , WAS 174 177 4 17 65 686 7 7. David Njoku , CLE 168 149 -19 11 67 646 6 8. Hunter Henry , NE 160 145 -15 16 61 703 5 9. Sam LaPorta , DET 154 175 21 16 57 620 6 10. Cade Otton , TB 151 141 -10 14 63 585 5 11. Mike Gesicki , CIN 143 142 -2 17 58 611 4 12. Mark Andrews , BAL 138 189 51 17 46 553 6 13. Pat Freiermuth , PIT 132 168 37 17 58 555 3 14. Jake Ferguson , DAL 131 104 -27 14 64 568 2 15. Kyle Pitts , ATL 131 131 0 17 48 569 4 16. Dalton Schultz , HOU 131 118 -12 17 54 635 2 17. Dalton Kincaid , BUF 130 101 -29 13 53 577 3 18. Tyler Conklin , NYJ 126 122 -4 16 53 507 4 19. Isaiah Likely , BAL 116 124 8 16 41 445 5 20. Tucker Kraft , GB 114 163 49 17 51 464 3 21. Chigoziem Okonkwo , TEN 113 114 0 17 52 485 2 22. Juwan Johnson , NO 109 123 14 17 46 514 2 23. Noah Fant , SEA 104 104 0 14 49 442 2 24. T.J. Hockenson , MIN 100 87 -14 10 40 485 2 25. Will Dissly , LAC 100 110 10 15 46 428 2 26. Austin Hooper , NE 99 109 10 17 41 428 3 27. Jordan Akins , CLE 99 91 -8 17 41 418 3 28. Evan Engram , JAX 98 90 -9 9 48 441 1 29. Cole Kmet , CHI 95 120 26 17 42 402 2 30. Dallas Goedert , PHI 93 104 10 10 37 372 3 31. Noah Gray , KC 92 113 21 17 37 355 3 32. Brenton Strange , JAX 90 91 1 17 37 371 3 33. Foster Moreau , NO 89 103 14 17 29 357 4 34. Colby Parkinson , LAR 85 65 -19 17 35 331 3 35. Ja'Tavion Sanders , CAR 72 73 1 16 31 302 2 36. Theo Johnson , NYG 69 68 -1 12 30 323 1 37. Taysom Hill , NO 67 102 36 8 22 195 1 38. AJ Barner , SEA 64 79 14 17 30 236 2 39. Josh Whyle , TEN 58 61 3 17 27 252 1 40. Dawson Knox , BUF 57 59 2 16 19 276 2 41. Luke Schoonmaker , DAL 57 57 0 17 26 249 1 42. Josh Oliver , MIN 53 66 13 15 21 207 2 43. Kylen Granson , IND 53 32 -21 17 18 262 1 44. Tommy Tremble , CAR 52 56 5 12 21 208 2 45. Michael Mayer , LV 49 37 -13 11 23 223 1 46. Grant Calcaterra , PHI 46 60 14 17 21 207 1 47. Johnny Mundt , MIN 46 45 -1 17 19 170 2 48. Mo Alie-Cox , IND 44 33 -12 17 14 180 2 49. Jeremy Ruckert , NYJ 43 29 -14 17 21 181 1 50. Elijah Higgins , ARI 42 49 7 17 19 162 1 51. Darnell Washington , PIT 42 45 3 17 19 164 1 52. Tanner Hudson , CIN 40 39 -1 11 19 146 1 53. Adam Trautman , DEN 38 44 5 17 17 147 1 54. Drew Sample , CIN 35 37 1 17 18 122 1 55. Julian Hill , MIA 35 22 -13 16 14 144 1 56. Nick Vannett , TEN 35 49 13 17 16 113 1 57. Cade Stover , HOU 35 34 0 15 16 153 1 58. Stone Smartt , LAC 34 35 1 15 13 170 1 59. Brock Wright , DET 33 35 2 17 13 109 2 60. Lucas Krull , DEN 32 34 2 13 17 148 0 61. Erick All , CIN 32 36 4 9 18 132 0 62. Hayden Hurst , LAC 30 15 -15 9 10 97 2 63. Durham Smythe , MIA 29 14 -15 17 11 112 1 64. Eric Saubert , SF 27 27 -1 17 10 107 1 65. Nate Adkins , DEN 27 44 16 17 13 95 1 66. Payne Durham , TB 27 35 7 16 10 108 1 67. Luke Farrell , JAX 25 19 -7 17 13 109 0 68. Andrew Ogletree , IND 25 26 0 17 9 117 1 69. Davis Allen , LAR 24 10 -15 15 9 88 1 70. Tyler Higbee , LAR 24 27 3 3 9 69 1 71. Daniel Bellinger , NYG 23 27 3 17 12 113 0 72. Brevyn Spann-Ford , DAL 22 18 -5 17 10 96 1 73. Gerald Everett , CHI 22 12 -11 17 10 81 1 74. Charlie Kolar , BAL 19 28 9 13 8 81 1 75. Pharaoh Brown , SEA 19 13 -7 15 9 78 1 76. Greg Dulcich , DEN 18 8 -10 4 8 79 0 76. Greg Dulcich , NYG 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 77. John Bates , WAS 18 14 -4 17 9 83 0 78. Quintin Morris , BUF 18 15 -3 16 5 68 1 79. Blake Whiteheart , CLE 18 17 0 11 6 70 1 80. Harrison Bryant , LV 17 18 0 13 10 73 0 81. MyCole Pruitt , PIT 16 16 0 12 7 66 1 82. Charlie Woerner , ATL 16 12 -5 16 9 72 0 83. Luke Musgrave , GB 15 12 -3 7 6 74 0 84. Tucker Fisk , LAC 14 11 -3 9 6 46 1 85. Connor Heyward , PIT 13 16 3 17 6 59 0 86. Kenny Yeboah , NYJ 13 16 3 9 6 51 0 87. Devin Culp , TB 12 14 1 5 4 56 1 88. Will Mallory , IND 12 7 -5 10 5 66 0 89. Hunter Long , LAR 11 19 8 17 7 49 0 90. Ben Sinnott , WAS 10 14 4 17 4 28 1 91. Ian Thomas , CAR 9 4 -5 5 5 38 0 92. Tip Reiman , ARI 9 10 1 17 5 38 0 93. Peyton Hendershot , KC 9 10 1 7 4 30 0 94. Cam Grandy , CIN 9 8 -1 8 4 29 0 95. Chris Manhertz , NYG 8 12 4 17 3 24 1 96. Ben Sims , GB 7 8 1 17 3 27 0 97. Dallin Holker , NO 7 5 -2 12 2 30 0 98. Tanner Conner , MIA 7 5 -2 8 3 33 0 99. Jody Fortson , KC 7 2 -5 3 2 20 0 100. Eric Tomlinson , LAC 6 3 -3 9 3 22 0 101. Josiah Deguara , JAX 5 4 -1 15 3 15 0 102. E.J. Jenkins , PHI 5 8 3 8 1 13 0 103. Jaheim Bell , NE 5 4 -1 15 2 23 0 104. Feleipe Franks , CAR 4 2 -2 16 1 30 0 105. Brevin Jordan , HOU 4 3 -2 2 3 16 0 106. Jack Stoll , MIA 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 106. Jack Stoll , PHI 4 3 -1 7 2 18 0 107. Brayden Willis , SF 2 0 -2 10 1 13 0 108. David Martin-Robinson , TEN 2 2 -1 5 1 9 0 109. Baylor Cupp , KC 2 0 -2 1 1 6 0
