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Special to ESPN.com- Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of "Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts," the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.
What do the analytics say about upcoming championship fights like the two on the marquee at UFC 304? Should a grappler such as Belal Muhammad be considered a favorite against a striker such as Leon Edwards? ​​Does a rematch hurt or help a current champion Tom Aspinall?
Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view. Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup for the incumbent champ.
These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight. They assess relative favorability, running from the riskiest to the best matchup.
Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at the UFC title fights currently scheduled, along with recently booked UFC 306 main event between bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.
Editor's note: All odds are courtesy of ESPN BET.
