Looking beyond the NBA standings can help us understand which teams are likely to move up or tumble down the standings in the following season.
In the NFL, ESPN's Bill Barnwell has made a tradition of using statistical factors to predict the five best candidates to improve or decline on an annual basis. Underscoring my argument that these predictions aren't as easy in the NBA, three of the seven teams in last year's inaugural column -- four to improve, three to decline -- missed the mark.
Part of the challenge is personnel matters so much more in the NBA. Although several statistical factors pointed toward the Toronto Raptors improving last season, none proved more important than losing Fred VanVleet in free agency. Toronto was off to a 12-19 start before trading first OG Anunoby and then Pascal Siakam midseason, and the Raptors ultimately saw their win total drop by 16 games.
Incentives matter, too. On paper, the Washington Wizards figure to step forward after underperforming their expected win total based on point differential by 4.5 games last season. With three first-round picks on their roster, however, the Wizards are likely more interested in developing young talent and accumulating lottery odds than beating last season's 15 wins.
With those caveats in mind, I've added a fourth predictive factor -- team age -- to the three (point differential, health and opponent 3-point percentage) I used in last year's results. Based on those indicators, here are teams heading in different directions in 2024-25.
