NFL football is a Thanksgiving tradition. Important games on Thanksgiving are not. Thanksgiving football has seen a lot of one-sided contests over the past few years. It doesn't help that the Detroit Lions are usually out of contention by this point. Years of 8-8 Dallas teams gave us some Turkey Day turkeys as well.
Well, not this year. Just in time to help you avoid talking politics with the family members you disagree with, the NFL has delivered a trio of games with major playoff ramifications. Grab that second helping of pumpkin pie and get back on the couch as soon as possible.
The opener, Minnesota at Detroit, is the most important game of the week for determining which 12 teams make the NFL playoff field. In fact, it's the most important game of the year so far. If the Lions win, they become the NFC North favorites, making the playoffs 62.4 percent of the time, while the Vikings make it only 43.4 percent of the time. But if the Vikings get a win on the road, their playoff odds climb to 86.1 percent while Detroit's odds fall to 18.9 percent.
The next game, Washington at Dallas, is less important for making the playoffs since Dallas has almost clinched a spot. But it's hugely important to determining seeding, which gives it major impact on which NFC team makes the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are 33 percent more likely to make Super Bowl LI if they win this game; the Redskins are more than twice as likely to make it with a win.
The nightcap brings us the No. 1 team in the AFC North race (Pittsburgh) against the No. 2 team in the AFC South race (Indianapolis). Each team would add between 12 and 15 percent to its playoff odds with a win on Thanksgiving night.
You'll find our playoff odds for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. New England Patriots (8-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 98.4 percent
The Raiders are currently the AFC's No. 1 seed based on the "strength of victory" tiebreaker. That's not a very good one for the Patriots, since they had both Cleveland and San Francisco on the schedule. But it's unlikely to come down to that by the end of the season. New England has been the better team on a play-by-play basis and has the easier schedule down the stretch (with two games against the Jets and a home game against the Rams).
