Even the NFL's best teams aren't perfect. Inevitably, just about every squad is going to get found out. Take last season, when the Giants blew up the Vikings' pass coverage to upset them in the wild-card round. The Eagles were able to overpower the Giants up front to blow them out in the divisional round. Three weeks later, in Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs used the threat of jet sweeps and Philadelphia's struggles dealing with motion to score two key touchdowns and knock off the Eagles.
Some flaws become apparent as the season goes along. Others seem obvious before the season even begins. Based on what we saw last season and the changes each team made this offseason, we're going to identify a potential problem with each playoff contender and rank them from most concerning to least concerning.
Defining "playoff contender" is a tricky proposition. There are 14 teams in the AFC that could credibly call themselves playoff contenders right now. To keep things narrowed down and be able to talk more in depth about each team, I had to shorten the list of teams to examine.
With that in mind, I looked at ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and included the seven teams from the AFC and NFC that project to make the playoffs by the FPI's algorithm. To be clear, these aren't my picks for who will make the postseason in 2023. (I'm trying to avoid getting angry messages here -- it won't work.)
The FPI has a relatively static playoff field for 2023, with only the Buccaneers, Dolphins and Giants failing to make return trips to the postseason. It projects the Lions, Jets and Saints to take their place, so I'll include them with the 11 returning playoff teams. I'll start in Baltimore, where the Ravens have a hole in a position that never seems to be a problem for them:
Jump to a contender:
BAL | BUF | CIN | DAL
DET | JAX | KC | LAC | MIN
NO | NYJ | PHI | SEA | SF
1. Baltimore Ravens
Chances to make the playoffs, per ESPN's FPI: 54.8%
Chances to play in the Super Bowl: 6.8%
Biggest flaw: Pass rush
