The wild-card round of the NFL playoffs always has surprise winners. In January 2024, the Texans rolled the Browns as 2.5-point underdogs. The Packers edged the Cowboys despite Dallas being expected to win by more than a touchdown. And the Buccaneers shocked the Eagles, even though Philadelphia was favored on the road. It happens every season.
Could we see more upsets this weekend? Let's map out paths to victory for the underdogs.
For each matchup, we pointed to two game-planning keys that could tip the scales and put Super Bowl contenders on early upset watch. We focused on personnel matchups, scheme advantages, coaching tendencies and what we see on the game tape. Here's how each underdog can win and move onto the divisional round of the playoffs. (Game projections are via ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and lines are from ESPN BET.)
Jump to an underdog:
GB | LAR | PIT | WSH
How the Broncos can upset the Bills
Game: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+)
FPI projection: BUF, 68.1% by an average of 7.1 points
ESPN BET: BUF -8 (47.5 O/U)
1. Steal from the Lions' offensive game plan.
