In one of the most anticipated transactions of the 2026 NFL offseason, the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers have agreed to a one-year deal that will return the veteran quarterback as Pittsburgh's starting passer for the upcoming season. The deal pays Rodgers somewhere between $22 million and $23 million in base salary, with incentives up to $25 million -- a significant pay bump from his one-year, $13.65 million deal from last year.
Reporting for months indicated that Rodgers was considering one more season, and the Steelers hired his longtime head coach Mike McCarthy as their replacement for the outgoing Mike Tomlin. Despite how destined the pairing seemed, there's reason to wonder why the Steelers wanted to hitch their wagon to 42-year-old Rodgers for yet another season, given how last year's offense performed.
I took a look at exactly how the Steelers' offense was built in 2025 and how much of that construction was because of Rodgers' play at his age. I also tried to size up what McCarthy could do to work around Rodgers' play style in 2026 and how successful the Steelers could be if he pulls it off.
Jump to:
How did Rodgers look in 2025?
What can the Steelers do in 2026?
Can the Steelers win with him?
How did Rodgers perform in 2025?
The Steelers' offense was pretty average last season. It ranked 17th in yards per play and 16th in points per drive. By advanced numbers, It was 21st in success rate and 16th in EPA per play. This jives with the eye test of a team that finished around .500 and generally won games in which its defense created turnovers or dominated in the pass rush.
Perhaps surprisingly for a Rodgers-led team, the Steelers' passing attack was the weaker half of its offensive identity. Compare its offensive performance on designed runs as compared to dropbacks, and it's clear that the Steelers' offensive strength was in its O-line and its backfield.
If the Steelers' running game doesn't immediately ring a bell as one of the league's better units of 2025, that's understandable. The Steelers actually had one of the highest pass rates above expectation by NFL Next Gen Stats' numbers, ranking sixth among all offenses. Despite the fact that their passing game was notably worse -- the Steelers' first down/touchdown rate on dropbacks was above only the Jets, Titans and Browns -- they just kept dropping back to throw.
We know why the Steelers kept passing the ball: Rodgers' ability to control plays at the line of scrimmage. He has a deep lexicon of hand signals to change route combinations on the fly and will tag routes on the backside of run plays to give himself a quick throw option if he doesn't like the run look. While the Steelers' offense still bore some of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's identity -- the multi-TE sets, the use of jumbo packages -- Rodgers kept a firm thumb on the scale by adjusting plays and routes at the line.
But why were the Steelers so bad at passing the football with such a competent field general at the helm? Pass protection issues did flare up at left tackle at times. The lack of receiver depth behind DK Metcalf limited Rodgers' options through his progressions. RB2 Kenneth Gainwell became a breakout pass catcher around midseason, while free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen were added in late-season desperation to find more playable WR snaps.
But at the core, the Steelers' passing game was poor because their quarterback play was poor. At 41 years old, Rodgers' lack of mobility and inability to take a hit dramatically limited how long the Steelers could drop back on any given play. Rodgers had the quickest time to throw among all quarterbacks last season at 2.71 seconds. He also led the league in percentage of throws that did not travel beyond the line of scrimmage ... at 32.5%. That's basically a third of all his attempts!
Rodgers has always been -- and remains -- a lightning fast decision-maker. It's one of the reasons why the ball got out so fast. But he's relying on quick game more than he ever has before, as 54% of his throws were out in under 2.5 seconds last season by Next Gen Stats' numbers, his highest single-season mark since 2017 (an injury-shortened year).
More important than what is there -- an overabundance of short, quick throws -- is what isn't there. Prime Rodgers was a spectacular creator. He could uncork a deep ball on the move with alacrity. He could slip tackles with quick feet and surprising toughness. But he simply cannot do this anymore. Rodgers threw on the run on only 11% of his pass attempts last season, per Next Gen Stats. From 2016 to 2022 (that is, pre-Achilles injury) he was moving on 16% of his attempts. His average distance travelled per dropback (5.7 yards) and average speed on a given dropback (3.75 mph) are both single-season lows for him over the past 10 years. He can't really move anymore.
Because Rodgers can't move well, he can't respond to pressure well. Those magical play extensions are gone. They've all been replaced by quick dump-offs or panicked heaves to one-on-one targets downfield. Rodgers' success rate of 19% on pressured dropbacks last year was the worst single-season mark of his career. His off-target rate when pressured -- a whopping 41.9% -- was the fourth-worst mark for any quarterback over the past five years. Rodgers is getting the ball out fast because he cannot stand to sit in the pocket for a millisecond longer than necessary.
All too often last season, Rodgers' film looked like this. He makes the right read here, finding Gainwell out of the backfield with leverage on the linebacker. It's third-and-6, and Gainwell has to get to the 4-yard line to convert. That might have been tough, but a timely and accurate throw could get him there. Instead, Rodgers wilts away from the incoming hit, which hugely impacts his accuracy. The ball sails, and it's fourth down.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) May 17, 2026
Rodgers' limitations are not impossible to play around; he does not inherently preclude his offense from functioning. But he does put a hard limit on how explosive the passing game can be, and as such, he requires an extremely healthy offensive ecosystem around him to stay afloat.
What can the Steelers do to win with Rodgers in 2026?
It is important to emphasize that McCarthy has never coached this version of Rodgers -- not by a long shot.
McCarthy's last season coaching Rodgers was in 2018. Rodgers was 35 in that season and still stupendously good at football. He was still moving well by Next Gen Stats' charting and creating big plays against pressure. In fact, once he got Matt LaFleur's offense under his belt, he started holding the ball for longer and dabbling in more under-center play-action dropbacks. McCarthy's offense had grown stale -- he had tried rejuvenating the playbook in both 2016 and 2018 without much success -- and Rodgers shined outside of it.
The Rodgers that McCarthy inherits now cannot do what that old Rodgers did. Yes, he can still change the plays at the line -- but he won't be able to bail the offense out of broken plays or create explosives on extended dropbacks. As such, McCarthy needs to build an offense that still gets the ball out of Rodgers' hands quickly ... but actually attacks all three levels of the field. This is much easier said than done. Last season's Steelers' devolved into a checkdown-checkdown-checkdown-checkdown-HEAVE operation that brokered no consistency.
The first and most obvious refuge is yards after the catch. If the quarterback cannot hold onto the football long enough to get deep-breaking routes into space, then the offense must throw quicker-breaking routes that can then pick up more yardage after the catch.
This is the theory behind the traditional Kyle Shanahan offenses. Jimmy Garoppolo (2021 and 2022) and Mac Jones (2025) both had time to throw numbers near Rodgers' number of last season, but they worked about 8-15 yards downfield on quick-breaking routes thrown with precision timing, either from the gun or off quick play-action fakes. Critically, these throws are beyond the line of scrimmage, whereas 2025 Rodgers (and Arthur Smith) preferred screens and swings into space.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) May 17, 2026
This is how Joe Flacco has aged as (relatively) well as he has. In his recent seasons with the Bengals, Colts and Jets, he has become a short-game distributor who doesn't need to try to extend plays because the ball is always out before pressure arrives.
McCarthy has long run passing games oriented on effective quick-game concepts. But while Shanahan has learned how to dress up these quick-hitters with motions and run fakes in the backfield, McCarthy has generally remained committed to a static presnap offense. This long suited Rodgers, who didn't want defenders moving at the snap -- nor did he want to turn his back to the defense on an under-center play-action fake.
But beggars cannot be choosers. Opposing defenses used to get shredded by quarterbacks like Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, who could each sit in the pocket and point guard their way down the field with six, seven, eight quick completions. It doesn't happen like that anymore; defenses are too sharp. If Rodgers and McCarthy cannot acclimate to the modern presnap approach, they'll continue to struggle against defenses that disguise their postsnap intentions.
The Steelers also need to run the ball. Rodgers has indulged himself in two consecutive seasons of inexcusably high pass rates. The 2024 Jets with Rodgers under center -- like the 2025 Steelers -- were among the league leaders in pass rate above expectation. But in both years, Rodgers did not push the ball downfield and did not scramble to create big plays late in the down. The Bengals under Joe Burrow have a high pass rate over expectation every year, but Burrow is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in dropback success rate. Rodgers, on the other hand, has been below average in two consecutive years. Last season, he was 33rd of 38 qualified quarterbacks. He isn't good enough to play like this anymore.
By instead leaning on the running game to become the consistent stick-moving engine of the attack, the Steelers can take some wind out of opponents' pass rush. Now Rodgers can take longer dropbacks and let more routes uncover downfield. McCarthy was fairly balanced in his five years with the Cowboys and must maintain control of that balance in Pittsburgh. While Rodgers will want -- and deserves to have -- the right to kill running plays into passing plays at the line, it's on McCarthy to express to his longtime quarterback the imperative reliability of the rushing attack.
Ideally, a commitment to the rushing attack is accompanied by more under-center alignments, which jives with the Shanahan lean in the passing game. This way, Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren can run downhill behind what is truly a spectacular young line in Pittsburgh.
Inevitably, the Rodgers/McCarthy pairing will gravitate toward what they know: spread formations, shotgun alignments, quick passing attacks. In theory, the improved receiver room featuring trade acquisition Michael Pittman Jr. and draft pick Germie Bernard will improve that approach, even if it is reminiscent of last year's scheme. Pittman has been one of the league's best "possession" receivers over his time with the Colts. He has a big frame, reliable hands and good feel for coverage. Similarly, Bernard was a QB-friendly pass catcher at Alabama, and he has some creative facets to his game as a jet sweep and backfield player.
But both Bernard and Pittman are new to Rodgers, and Rodgers famously struggles with new faces at receiver. They don't know his signals and predilections. No matter the scheme run for Rodgers, he will expect his receivers to change their routes to his exact expectations. It is challenging to be a pass catcher for him. If one (or both) of those two can get up to speed quickly, it will create much-needed depth for a quarterback who wants to spread the ball around, regardless of Pittsburgh's system.
This sort of offense will not lead the league in yards per play or points per drive. But it can pull its weight as a methodical, time-consuming partner to a strong defense. Rodgers has always excelled at avoiding turnovers, so the Steelers shouldn't expect to give up many short fields. If he can be convinced to attack more underneath and intermediate areas in an offense with more window dressings, the Steelers can find enough big plays in the passing game to avoid devolving into the neutered passing attack they deployed last season.
Do the Steelers have a shot to improve in Year 2 with Rodgers?
They certainly do, because it is the NFL, and wild things happen.
McCarthy, without question, is a good coach. He went 12-5 in three consecutive seasons with the Cowboys (before Dallas moved on after a 7-10 letdown year). Before that, he was pretty consistently over .500 with the Packers. He has made the playoffs 11 times and has gone 11-11 in the postseason. That doesn't sound amazing, but it's tied with Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, Jon Gruden and Jim Harbaugh. It's not at all bad.
Perhaps McCarthy is well-suited to this version of Rodgers. No coach is more familiar with the player, and accordingly, McCarthy might have the necessary cache with Rodgers to get him to change his play style. Last season's offense was very much a Rodgers-devised system to account for his limitations; it was predicated on the idea that Rodgers could outthink the opposing defense into submission. Short of having multiple elite pass catchers (again, think Burrow's Bengals), such an offense simply doesn't work in 2026.
Should McCarthy get the message across to Rodgers, the offense could take a step forward. The 2025 defense was average by most metrics, and the long-term outlook is bleak given how many older players fill key roles on the depth chart. In the short-term, the pass rush is still deep and terrifying, and the secondary has enough playmakers to be a strong coverage unit. New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will be tasked to diversify coverages more than Tomlin and Teryl Austin's unit did, and I'm sure he will do so.
McCarthy should also be a more aggressive decision-maker than Tomlin, who was notoriously cautious on fourth downs and in the red zone. Over his time in Dallas, McCarthy proved a willing convert to the modern approach of going for more late downs and touchdowns in favor of punts and field goals. The Steelers have added analytics staffers to this end. Just by making different in-game decisions, McCarthy might add a win or two to the Steelers' record sheet by the end of the year.
Even with these rose-colored glasses on, the Steelers are not a team with a particularly scary quarterback, and those teams tend not to win many games. By just about every stat that we've got, Rodgers was the worst quarterback to make the postseason in 2025. If he made it again this year, he'd likely be the worst in the field again. In a division featuring Burrow and Lamar Jackson -- and in a conference that has Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes -- it's simply too daunting to put chips on a Rodgers-led team in 2026.
While free agency is never rich with elite passers, there were better options for the Steelers than this. Kyler Murray would have been an outright better and far cheaper player -- he signed with the Vikings for the veteran minimum of $1.3 million dollars. The likelihood Murray gets hot for a playoff run is quite small but not nonexistent. With Rodgers, it practically is.
It is surprising that Rodgers is making as much in "free agency" as Malik Willis is with the Dolphins, with whom he signed in March. Willis might not be a better quarterback than Rodgers in 2026, but he will certainly be in 2027 and 2028 -- because he will still be playing. If the Steelers wanted to give a quarterback $23 million dollars, why not give it to the guy who could have been the future? Signing Willis or Murray would have likely ended up with the same conclusion that signing Rodgers will -- the Steelers needing to draft a first-round quarterback in 2027 but being in poor draft position to do so -- but the high tail outcomes were far more appealing.
So will the Steelers be any better this season? Never say never, of course. I watched them start 11-0 with the husk of Ben Roethlisberger in 2020. Rodgers can certainly do this season what Roethlisberger did then. But I'll be placing my eggs in other baskets for 2026.
