Last month, just prior to the start of training camp, we posted a wrap-up of our summer "Bubble Watch" series for the Buffalo Bills.
Players on the Bills' 90-man roster were separated into three categories: locks or near locks, on the bubble and long shots. Each player "on the bubble" was assigned a percentage chance of making the final roster.
With the Bills trimming their roster to 53 players Saturday, let's evaluate our predictions from July:
Locks or near locks: 35 of 38 made the 53-man roster.
Where we missed: QB Thad Lewis, C Doug Legursky, DT Alan Branch
Analysis: General manager Doug Whaley expressed confidence in Lewis from January through the summer, noting his 2-3 record as a starter last season. On the field, Lewis slipped as OTAs progressed into minicamp, training camp and the preseason. In fact, EJ Manuel was the only quarterback on the training camp roster who made it past final cuts. Legursky was the victim of solid play from Seantrel Henderson, whose move to right tackle pushed Erik Pears to guard and Legursky off the roster. Branch's demise is well-documented at this point.
On the bubble: 16 of 26 made the 53-man roster.
Those who made it: WR Marcus Easley (80%), TE Lee Smith (80%), OT Erik Pears (75%), LB Ty Powell (75%), LB Randell Johnson (75%), G Cyril Richardson (70%), DE Jarius Wynn (70%), DT Stefan Charles (70%), FB Frank Summers (65%), WR Chris Hogan (60%), OT Seantrel Henderson (55%), OT Chris Hairston (50%), TE Chris Gragg (45%), DT Corbin Bryant (40%), CB Ron Brooks (40%), DE Jacquies Smith (35%)
Those who missed the cut: QB Jeff Tuel (80%), P Brian Moorman (50%), P Jake Dombrowski (50%), FB Evan Rodriguez (45%), WR T.J. Graham (45%), K Dustin Hopkins (40%), G J.J. Unga (35%), WR Kevin Elliott (30%)
Placed on injured reserve: TE Tony Moeaki (75%), LB Stevenson Sylvester (40%)
Analysis: Tuel was the biggest miss on our part, although it was hard to predict the Bills' late signing of Kyle Orton, a move that pushed Tuel off the roster. Otherwise, the players not making the cut were at 50 percent or lower.
Long shots: 0 of 25 made the 53-man roster.
Analysis: Well, I guess that's why they call them long shots. The Bills didn't have any undrafted free agents make their 53-man roster, which contributed to this category being 100 percent accurate.
Signed after "Bubble Watch:" QB Kyle Orton, P Colton Schmidt, P/K Jordan Gay
