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ESPN- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
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ESPN Analytics- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
NFL analysts Ben Solak and Seth Walder are grading deals from the 2026 trade deadline, which passed at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday.
When grading trades, we evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlooks. How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision? And how big is the impact of this decision? Both questions play a role in our grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor grade. Even with lower stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter.
Here are our evaluations for 15 deals so far, including three Jaguars trades from Monday, three quarterback moves for teams in need and multiple deals involving at least one first-round pick.
Jump to a trade:
Hooker | Cousins | Allen | Davis
Godchaux | Cisco | Bates | Brissett
Simmons | Buckner | Nelson | Harrison
Jurgens | Porter | McCarthy
Titans trade S Hooker to Bills
Bills get: S Amani Hooker, 2027 fifth-round pick
Titans get: 2027 second-round pick
Bills grade: C+
Titans grade: A-
As the Bills push for a title run, safety was an obvious place for an upgrade. I thought the answer might be Jessie Bates III, but the Jaguars -- arguably Buffalo's biggest threat in the AFC -- traded for the former Falcons safety on Monday.
After the team released C.J. Gardner-Johnson last week, Damar Hamlin was left playing next to Cole Bishop, with Geno Stone as the third safety. In Hooker, the Titans upgrade from Hamlin and pick up a player that has been having an impactful season in Tennessee.
Hooker has recorded five interceptions and six passes defensed this season with the Titans, good enough to have the sixth-best EPA allowed on targets among safeties. All current metrics on safeties are quite noisy, but some of the others are not as strong: 1.0 yards per coverage snap both this season and last, and positive EPA allowed in 2025.
The Bills will be getting him on a value contract, as they will be on the hook for the remainder of Hooker's roughly $8.9 million in salary and per game roster bonuses this year, and then will be slated to pay him a non-guaranteed $10.3 million in 2027 and $13.5 million in 2028, per OverTheCap.com. That's less than Hooker would make on the open market, I believe, though not free.
So Hooker is an upgrade at a position of need for a Super Bowl-contending team and will save them a few million per year relative to the market. But is that worth a second-round pick? It strikes me as rich. Hooker is a good player but not a star -- he has never been a Pro Bowler or All-Pro and only snuck into Jeremy Fowler's NFL evaluator survey of top safeties in the "also receiving votes" category. As a result, the compensation here is a bit steep.
Raiders trade QB Cousins to Vikings
Vikings get: QB Kirk Cousins
Raiders get: 2027 third-round pick
Vikings grade: A
Raiders grade: B+
The Vikings were in the unusual position of being Super Bowl contenders that desperately needed a quarterback. And Tuesday was essentially the last day they could get one.
Kyler Murray is both hurt and clearly not a fit in Kevin O'Connell's offense. Murray has struggled this season and currently ranks 27th in QBR (45.7). Carson Wentz was abysmal in relief Monday night against the Bills, consistently failing to throw on target while the all-world Vikings defense somehow kept Josh Allen in check in the loss.
It's hard to overstate the urgency with which the Vikings needed to upgrade at quarterback. They are 6-2 and had a 65% chance to reach the playoffs prior to this trade, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. Minnesota has a Super Bowl-caliber defense, but that defense is fueled by its coach -- defensive coordinator Brian Flores -- rather than superstar players. Which means their Super Bowl window will evaporate into thin air the moment Flores leaves for another job, which could happen as soon as next offseason.
The Vikings were not going to reach the Super Bowl with the offense in had in the first eight games. So, the 38-year-old Cousins was a perfect player to target. He has familiarity and past success in O'Connell's system, and the presence of first overall pick Fernando Mendoza made it logical for the Raiders to deal Cousins before the deadline. And, perhaps most importantly, he's been playing very well!
Cousins ranks 12th in QBR (62.8) this season on a team that has star tight end Brock Bowers but is lacking at wide receiver. Cousins has a 13.5% off-target rate (eighth best), a plus-4.0% completion percentage over expected (sixth best) and a 3.4% sack rate (second best).
The last time Cousins was in Minnesota was in 2023, when he was playing some of the best football of his career before suffering a season-ending Achilles tear. His 64.0 QBR was the seventh best in the league through eight games. His 11% off-target rate that season and plus-4.6% completion percentage over expected ranked first and second in the league, respectively.
Cousins left as a free agent to sign with the Falcons, where he recorded a 48.5 QBR over 24 games spanning two seasons. He then signed as a bridge quarterback with the Raiders. But Cousins played well enough to keep the job until Tuesday's deadline.
His addition changes Minnesota's trajectory and brings it back into the group of viable Super Bowl contenders. For the Vikings to rescue their season in exchange for a third-round pick and a $10 million roster bonus that they will have to pay next season is very easily worth it, especially since their window might be super tight.
Despite posturing that they might hold Cousins, this was always the best move for the Raiders. Had they not dealt Cousins, he likely would have played a couple more games before they turned the keys over to Mendoza. Was keeping that plan worth a third-round pick and $10 million? Surely not.
There's an argument that starting Mendoza's career with games against the Seahawks and Broncos defenses will stunt his development. I don't really buy that, but if the Raiders are concerned they could play Aidan O'Connell for a few weeks and let Mendoza take over after, perhaps following their Week 13 bye. Either way, it made sense for them to get the third-round pick (and save the money).
Colts trade WR Allen to 49ers
49ers get: WR Keenan Allen
Colts get: 2027 sixth-round pick
49ers grade: B
Colts grade: B
The 49ers are bringing in reinforcements to help their injury-plagued wide receiver position. With Ricky Pearsall out for the season, De'Zhaun Stribling and Christian Kirk on IR, and Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. each having missed the past couple of games, San Francisco is hurting for pass catchers.
Plenty of people connected the 49ers to Colts wide receiver Josh Downs leading up to the trade deadline, but it is actually the 34-year-old Allen who is heading to San Francisco.
The Colts signed the 14-year veteran to a one-year, $3.3 million contract when they were hurting at wide receiver with Alec Pierce recovering from ankle surgery. Allen has recorded 40 receptions for 351 yards (1.8 yards per route run) in eight games for the Colts. He has been targeted on 30% of his routes -- a massive number -- while recording a low average depth of target (8.5 yards). Allen recorded open, catch and YAC scores of 39, 66 and 41, respectively in ESPN's player-tracking-based receiver scores -- mediocre numbers when combined together. If I were the 49ers, I would certainly much rather have had Downs. But he also would have cost more draft capital.
Despite his age, Allen can be part of the solution to help the 49ers get past their current injury turmoil until help returns. His track record and the numbers that he accumulated in Indianapolis this season suggest he can be useful in the short term. So a sixth-round pick is worth it, especially considering the 49ers' status as a Super Bowl favorite.
While Allen is typically thought of as a slot receiver, he doesn't have to exclusively play there. He's only played there on 24% of his snaps this season. The Colts' mandate right now is simple -- get as much future value for veterans as they possibly can. Any draft pick compensation for Allen, given his age and contract status, was worth it.
Eagles trade DT Davis to Jaguars
Jaguars get: DT Jordan Davis
Eagles get: 2027 first-round pick, 2029 second-round pick
Jaguars grade: F
Eagles grade: A
There's no other way to start this: This trade is a disaster for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars are absolutely right to go for it. Entering Monday, they had a 12.8% chance to win the Super Bowl, per ESPN's Football Power Index, second highest of any team and best in the AFC. And that's why I was OK with them rolling the dice on Jessie Bates III earlier in the day. A late-round pick for Davon Godchaux, too? Fine. But first- and second-round picks for Davis? Reckless would be putting it mildly.
The numbers do not paint a picture of Davis being someone who is worth anywhere near that type of trade compensation. He has played 52% of snaps for the Eagles. That number is not particularly unusual for a run-stuffing nose tackle, but that's exactly the point: The Jaguars just dealt first- and second-round picks for a part-time player who helps only against the run! There is no world where that is worth it.
Davis has a run stop win rate in the 71st percentile among interior defenders this season. He was in the 93rd percentile in 2025 and the 52nd percentile in 2024. This season, he has a 13.5% run stop rate -- the rate at which a player records a tackle on a run that resulted in a successful play for the defense by EPA -- per NFL Next Gen Stats, 14th best among defensive tackles with at least 100 run defense snaps and just behind former Eagles teammate Moro Ojomo. In other words, he has been a good run defender, not elite.
Though Davis recorded 4.5 sacks last season, the Jaguars can't count on that. Davis has been in the 12th percentile or worse in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles in each of 2024, 2025 and 2026.
I thought that the Bears' trade for Jeffery Simmons (two first-round picks) was an overpay and that last year's Cowboys deal for Quinnen Williams (first and second-round picks) was ill-advised. But in each of those cases the acquiring team was getting a much better player -- and someone who is dangerous rushing the passer.
Davis is under contract through the 2029 season. The Jaguars will be on the hook for $18.4 million (mostly fully guaranteed) in 2027, $26 million in 2028 (most of which will become fully guaranteed in 2027) and $26 million in 2029. So relative to other nose tackles, he's not even cheap for Jacksonville going forward.
The Jaguars did recently lose nose tackle DaVon Hamilton to a season-ending injury but had seemingly addressed that with the Godchaux trade earlier Monday. Even without that move, overpaying on such a massive scale for Davis does not make sense.
This is one of those trades that ought to induce marvel at Howie Roseman and the Eagles. How were they able to swindle the Jaguars into this?
With Philadelphia's season effectively over, it's easy for the Eagles to unload their players. But at this kind of price, I'm inclined to think the Eagles would have dealt Davis no matter their contention status or depth chart. Philadelphia should be thrilled at this return. -- Walder
Saints trade DT Godchaux to Jaguars
Jaguars get: DT Davon Godchaux
Saints get: 2028 sixth-round pick
Jaguars grade: B-
Saints grade: B
With DaVon Hamilton out for the season with a torn quadriceps, the Jaguars made their second deal of the day to bring in a replacement nose tackle, with Godchaux set to take over Hamilton's spot.
In his 10th season in the league, Godchaux was playing just under 20 snaps per game for the Saints. His run stop win rate ranked in the 65th percentile among interior defenders this season, though he had struggled in the category the prior two years. Hamilton was just slightly better, with a 69th percentile run stop win rate at the position.
The Jaguars' defense ranks third in EPA allowed per designed run, though they naturally felt there was risk that could drop off without replacing Hamilton externally.
Godchaux has a $1.3 million salary and is in the last year of his contract. Given the Saints' situation -- 3-5 and still in the race for the NFC South but without real hopes of being an actual contender -- it makes sense for them to deal him for a draft pick while they can. -- Walder
Jets trade S Cisco to Lions
Lions get: S Andre Cisco
Jets get: 2028 sixth-round pick
Lions grade: C
Jets grade: B+
The Lions have acquired safety depth in Cisco while the team awaits Kerby Joseph's return. Brian Branch returned to game action in Week 7 after recovering from an Achilles injury suffered last December and has played alongside Chuck Clark. Joseph hasn't played since Week 6 last year due to a knee injury but recently returned to practice.
In Cisco, the Lions get a veteran deep safety who could work with Clark to complement Branch until Joseph returns. But Cisco had been mostly relegated to the bench in New York, having not had double-digit defensive snaps since Week 3. That number dropped to zero on Sunday, with Malachi Moore playing ahead of him.
Cisco is only 26 years old and costs $2 million this year between base salary and per game roster bonuses, with the Lions presumably taking over the remainder of the money owed. To me, this is pricey for a player who hasn't really been playing for the Jets and who, ideally, won't play all that much for the Lions if Joseph is able to return to his previous level of play.
It makes sense for the Jets to trade him -- they are well out of contention and Cisco is on an expiring contract -- and I'm guessing they were pleased to get this kind of return. -- Walder
Falcons trade S Bates to Jaguars
Jaguars get: S Jessie Bates III
Falcons get: 2027 second-round pick, 2028 fifth-round pick
Jaguars grade: B
Falcons grade: B+
The Jaguars delivered the opening deal of trade deadline week, acquiring Bates to augment a defense that they hope can be part of a Super Bowl run. Bates is an impact player who delivers splash plays. Over his 3½ years in Atlanta, Bates recorded 14 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles. Yards per coverage snap is a pretty noisy stat for safeties, but over each of his seasons with the Falcons, Bates allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap or better -- lower than the 0.6 average for the position -- per NFL Next Gen Stats.
He'll take over the spot vacated by Eric Murray, who is out for the season with an elbow injury, and play next to Antonio Johnson. Johnson aligns as a safety only 57% of the time, as he sometimes plays from the box or on occasion even up on the line, while Bates has had more typical alignments. He is 9.5 yards from the line of scrimmage on average, spending 75% of the time at safety and 17% in the box. Despite that he has delivered big plays in the run game, too. He has 13 run stops this season -- plays where the defender makes the tackle on a successful EPA play for the defense -- tied for seventh most among safeties, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He has the best EPA on run stops among safeties (in part because two of his forced fumbles have come on run plays).
I absolutely think it makes sense for the Jaguars to add talent at the deadline as they make a serious push. They currently rank second in ESPN's Football Power Index (and first in the AFC) and have a 24% chance to reach -- and 13% to win -- the Super Bowl. It is fully go time in Jacksonville. The Jags already have a good defense, ranking second in EPA allowed per play, and this will make them better.
Bates is in the final year of his contract with a $13 million salary, and the Jaguars will take over the remaining portion of that money assuming the deal hasn't been altered. I suspect this is a pure rental because the Jaguars currently have just $4 million in 2026 cap space and negative-$15 million in 2027, per OverTheCap.com. But that is perfectly OK.
In fact, if I were the Jaguars, I would rather this be a pure rental. Because the Jaguars are cap-strapped, they won't be active in free agency, which means they are likely to receive a compensatory pick (a fourth-rounder would be my guess) when Bates walks in free agency. If we assume this year's second-rounder is in the back-half of the round and that the Jaguars do get a 2028 fourth-round pick back, this works out to dealing a third-round pick for half a season of Bates, per ESPN's draft pick valuations.
It's a little more than I would want; last week I proposed a Bates deal to Buffalo for a third and a fifth, though I do think now I might have been aiming too low. But ultimately I can get on board because all of the aspects of the deal (impact player, fills need, win-now window) make sense and the price ultimately isn't egregious if he is indeed a rental. So my B grade here indicates I would make this trade if I were the Jaguars, but I wouldn't have done it for more.
Atlanta was somewhat boxed in to making a Bates deal because it has so much cap space -- more than $110 million in 2027, per OverTheCap.com. That means they very likely will be active in free agency and therefore would have a major risk of not getting anything back for Bates if they held him through the end of the year, as acquired free agents cancel out lost free agents in terms of compensatory picks. If the Falcons were not going to be contenders this season, then they almost had to deal Bates for the most they could get for him. And while the 3-6 Falcons are still in the race in the lowly NFC South, they had to ask themselves: Is this team really going to make a run in 2026?
It seems they answered that question honestly. -- Walder
Cardinals trade QB Brissett to Ravens
Ravens get: QB Jacoby Brissett, 2027 fifth-round pick
Cardinals get: 2027 fourth-round pick, 2028 seventh-round pick
Ravens grade: B+
Cardinals grade: B
With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both hurt, the Ravens are throwing a Hail Mary to save their season. Baltimore is trading for veteran Brissett, shortly after the Cardinals benched him in favor of Gardner Minshew II.
Brissett is a respected bridge quarterback and has played around expectations this season in Arizona. He has a 48.9 QBR, which ranks 23rd out of 30 qualifying starters. That number alone is probably selling Brissett's performance short this season, though, considering he was playing behind the O-line unit that ranked 31st in pass block win rate and was able to use play-action just 18% of the time (27th most). He has posted a plus-5% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats (fifth) along with an average 15% off-target rate. And he has been sacked 5.7% of the time (roughly average but notable, given the lack of pass protection). He did throw seven interceptions in eight games, but because he hasn't fumbled yet this season, his turnover rate is roughly average, too.
We can zoom out on Brissett's performance and see a similar picture. Since 2021, he has a 51.1 QBR and a plus-3% completion percentage over expectation (along with a 16% off-target rate), though his QBR was worse than that the past two years. All of this is to say, Brissett is rightfully a fringe starter in the NFL, but that also makes him a substantial upgrade over undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano.
The Ravens lost 33-10 to the Jaguars on Thursday night with Fagnano (and also some Derrick Henry in the Wildcat) at quarterback. In all likelihood, Baltimore's season is over with Jackson currently on injured reserve and the team at 4-5. Ravens coach Jesse Minter has said Jackson's injury is "potentially" season-ending. But Brissett gives the team at least a sliver of hope of staying afloat long enough to hand the reins back to Jackson with a shot at the playoffs.
But make no mistake, those chances are extremely slim. Even knowing Brissett is about to take over at QB (and assuming Jackson has, say, a 30% chance of coming back in games starting in Week 14, ESPN's Football Power Index gives Baltimore only a 3% chance of reaching the playoffs. If Jackson is indeed able to come back, that number goes up, but it's still a long shot. The cost here is low. By ESPN's draft pick valuations, the swap works out to the equivalent of an early sixth-round pick. Considering the team's upside if it does get Jackson back, I think that is easily worth it for Baltimore.
As for Arizona? Brissett's role with the Cardinals always had an expiration date. The team decided to have two bridge quarterbacks on its roster heading into this season and recently turned to the second one in Minshew, while demoting Brissett to third-string. Eventually, the Cards will likely turn from Minshew to Carson Beck, too. So trading Brissett before the deadline was an easy choice; they can recoup some draft value for him and save a few million along the way (Brissett had a $9.7 million base salary this year, and if the contract is untouched, the Ravens will take on the remaining portion of that).
I actually thought Arizona might get a little more for Brissett, because I could have imagined the Vikings -- and maybe the Eagles or Browns -- being interested, as well. But it certainly made sense to deal him, and the Cardinals almost had to make sure they did so before the deadline. -- Walder
Titans trade DT Simmons to Bears
Bears get: DT Jeffery Simmons, 2028 fifth-round pick
Titans get: 2027 first-round pick, 2027 fourth-round pick, 2028 first-round pick
Bears grade: C
Titans grade: A
This trade is extremely fun. The Bears were already an enjoyable and fascinating team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. And now they've added one of the game's truly elite defensive players. They also gave up a lot to do so.
The Bears enter Week 8 as ESPN Football Power Index's seventh-best team, with an 80% chance to reach the playoffs and a 13% chance to reach the Super Bowl. When quarterback Caleb Williams has played this season, their offense has produced 0.14 EPA per play, which would be fourth-best in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has also been working miracles -- without major turnover luck this time -- but there was a clear need for reinforcements on the defensive depth chart. And now the Bears have landed the best defensive tackle in the league, period.
Simmons has four sacks this season, despite having his pass rush opportunities limited by being on a bad team. He leads all interior linemen in pass rush win rate and ranks fifth in pressure rate. His run stop win rate is above average. And it is hardly a fluke: Simmons ranked second in pass rush win rate (and above average in run stop win rate) while recording 11 sacks last year in a season in which he might have merited Defensive Player of the Year consideration if not for Myles Garrett setting the single-season sacks record.
Simmons is a force and a massive upgrade at an area of weakness. The Bears had been playing 33-year-old Grady Jarrett (who has zero sacks but a solid pass rush win rate) alongside veteran journeymen Kentavius Street, Neville Gallimore and James Lynch. Simmons is an entirely different level of player.
So, Simmons absolutely makes sense for the Bears, and in general, I am strongly in favor of Chicago making deadline additions this season. But there is a compensation limit where a trade ceases to make sense, and I think the Bears ran past it.
Simmons joins a small fraternity of non-quarterbacks to be traded for multiple first-round picks in recent years: edge rushers Micah Parsons and Khalil Mack, offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, safety Jamal Adams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. The results have been mixed at best for the acquiring team and Simmons, at 29 years old, is the oldest of these players at the time of the deal (Mack was the previous oldest, as the Bears acquired him as a 27-year-old in 2018).
Simmons is under contract through 2030. Assuming that contract is untouched, he will cost $27 million in 2027 and $29.8 million in 2028, with the 2028 base salary becoming fully guaranteed the year prior. That is below what Simmons would make on the open market, but it's still a decent-sized contract for Chicago to take on.
The money saved on Simmons' contract compared to what he would make as a free agent will not reach the expected surplus value of a first-round pick. Even accounting for the high levels of uncertainty in the NFL draft, first-round selections can deliver massive value for NFL teams -- stars on very affordable contracts. The 2027 pick will likely be toward the end of this year's draft, and it seems hard to imagine that 2028 won't be a late first-rounder, too. But I caution against making such strong assumptions -- the Colts didn't think the first-round picks they sent to the Jets last year in exchange for Gardner were going to be as good as they're turning out.
That is the main reason this is a winning trade for the Titans. Tennessee isn't going anywhere this season, and there is little point in keeping Simmons for a few meaningless wins down the stretch while his trade value diminishes. He's a pillar of the organization, but getting that type of draft capital for a 29-year-old player jump-starts the next phase of the team. The question wasn't whether Simmons should be traded, but what they could get in exchange. And they got a great return.
Defenders of the Bears will rightly say surplus value alone isn't everything. The objective isn't to have the highest WAR per dollar; it's to win the Super Bowl. And this move increases the Bears' chance to win the Super Bowl in 2026. Maybe in 2027, too. But it likely hurts their odds from 2028 through 2031.
There are quality defensive players out there who could have improved the Bears' defense while costing them less -- edges Josh Sweat or Yaya Diaby, defensive tackle Daron Payne ... maybe even bringing back Mack. I would have preferred one of those moves. They might have gotten two of those players for less than they gave up for Simmons.
The Bears know they are contenders now, which is why they should go for it. But they gave up too much for a (relatively) older player. Given the player, the need and the situation, it's a move I want to like. But I don't think it can be justified in exchange for two first-round picks. -- Walder
Colts trade DT Buckner to 49ers
49ers get: DT DeForest Buckner
Colts get: 2027 fourth-round pick
49ers grade: A-
Colts grade: B-
As soon as the Colts emerged as a team that might engage in a trade-deadline teardown, it wasn't hard to see the dots connecting Buckner back to the 49ers. That became a reality Tuesday.
Though his numbers have dipped, Buckner, 32, can still help the 49ers get after the quarterback. He has four sacks this season, but his pass rush win rate ranked in the 45th percentile among defensive tackles, alongside a 69th percentile pressure rate. That is a drop from last season, when he was in the 90th and 88th percentile in those metrics, respectively. However, that 2025 performance is a positive sign for what he could bring to the 49ers the rest of this season.
Extra pass-rushing help will be welcome in San Francisco, which ranks 19th in pass rush win rate. The 49ers have been without Nick Bosa, who has been out because of a calf injury since Week 3 but is expected to return soon. Their pass defense is the only one of their major units (run and pass on offense and defense) that ranks outside the top seven in EPA per play (13th).
I'll admit I'm a little surprised the 49ers made this move considering they already have Osa Odighizuwa as a pass-rush-first defensive tackle. But he can play next to Buckner -- especially on passing downs. Also, San Francisco's rash of defensive line injuries makes any help welcome.
This type of roster-bolstering move makes sense for San Francisco. The 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. In fact, they are the favorites by a lot, with the FPI giving them a 23% chance to win the Super Bowl (every other team is below 11%). Adding Buckner to reinforce those chances is worthwhile.
The cost was also quite reasonable. The 49ers are surrendering a fourth-round pick and taking over the prorated remainder of Buckner's $13 million salary, assuming his contract is untouched. While compensatory picks are never a guarantee, there's a decent chance that San Francisco might recoup most of that draft capital back via a comp pick if Buckner signs elsewhere in free agency next offseason, especially given that San Francisco is low on 2027 cap space.
That also is why I'm a little critical of the Colts' move here. Don't get me wrong, it absolutely makes sense for Indianapolis to trade him. The Colts are rebuilding, and Buckner is a 32-year-old in the final year of his contract -- of course they should have dealt him before the deadline.
Perhaps this was the best offer Indianapolis received for Buckner today, but they also didn't have to trade Buckner right now. There are two weeks left until the Nov. 10 trade deadline. I would have thought they could have at least squeezed another Day 3 pick in addition to the fourth-rounder. -- Walder
Colts trade G Nelson to Seahawks
Seahawks get: G Quenton Nelson
Colts get: 2027 third-round pick, 2028 fifth-round pick
Seahawks grade: A-
Colts grade: B+
The reimagination of the Colts is officially underway, with longtime Indianapolis stalwart Nelson heading to the defending Super Bowl champions to bolster the interior of their offensive line.
Nelson, 30, started his career with three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections. His level of play dropped in 2022 and 2023, but the 2018 first-round pick battled back to elite form in 2024, when he posted pass block and run block win rates that were each in the 90th percentile, along with earning second-team All-Pro honors. He earned a second-team All-Pro spot last season, too, along with a 91st percentile and 74th percentile pass block and run block win rates, respectively.
His win rates haven't been quite as strong this season (66th and 37th percentile, respectively), but Nelson's reputation is still superb, and having such consistent results the previous two years suggests he probably remains one of the best guards in the league if we're projecting the rest of the season.
The Seahawks presumably will keep Nelson at left guard and move Grey Zabel to right guard. That will push Anthony Bradford, who recently returned from injured reserve and has played two games this season, to the bench. Bradford recorded 30th and 33rd percentile pass block and run block win rates last season, respectively, so Nelson is a substantial upgrade.
The Seahawks have Super Bowl aspirations but must get better play out of an offense that ranks 26th in EPA per play and 31st in EPA per designed rush. They rank 27th in run block win rate, 28th in yards per designed running back carry (3.6) and 28th in yards before contact on designed run plays. They also rank 21st in pass block win rate. So the team needed some offensive line help and upgrading their right guard or center made sense.
Nelson is on an expiring contract, so unless his deal was altered, the Seahawks will take on the prorated remainder of his $16 million in salary for this season, which is a bargain for the quality of play he brings. The Seahawks could sign Nelson to an extension or a new deal after the season, but they could also let him walk in free agency and possibly collect a compensatory pick to mitigate the draft capital lost in this trade.
It makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks to push their chips in on their current team. History tells us how hard it is to sustain elite defensive success, so the Seahawks need to take advantage while they have it.
This was also an easily logical move for the Colts. The 2026 season is lost, and Nelson is a pending free agent. Whatever value he would bring to the team in the second half of the season pales in comparison to what he brings to the Seahawks, and the draft capital return is more than they would get in compensatory picks (which are never a guarantee, anyway) had Nelson left in free agency. Plus, they save money on the remainder of his 2026 salary.
Ultimately, this is a win-win trade. Considering Seattle's contention window, positional (and overall offensive) need, the draft capital required and Nelson's contract, this is a sound move. -- Walder
Cardinals trade WR Harrison to Texans
Texans get: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., 2027 seventh-round pick
Cardinals get: 2027 second-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pick
Texans grade: C+
Cardinals: A-
Minutes after the Texans completed their 26-3 blowout win over the Titans, news broke that the rumored trade of Harrison, who was inactive Sunday because of the expected move, would be completed. The Cardinals sent him to Houston for a second-rounder and a sixth-rounder in 2027.
Similar to a lot of trades for young players, there are two simple questions: How much of our opinion of Harrison should be shaped by the league's predraft opinion of him and how much should be based on what we've seen from him in the NFL so far?
Harrison was considered a premier wide receiver prospect and was the first non-quarterback off the board with the fourth pick in the 2024 draft. But his production has fallen well short of those expectations to date, with Harrison amassing 1,578 receiving yards over 33 career games.
That equates to 1.5 yards per route run, which is in the 46th percentile among wide receivers who have run at least 15 routes per team game in that span. That number has been even worse in a small sample this season: just 0.6 yards per route run with a much higher percentage of deep fades and go routes (24%) than the previous two seasons (13%). Harrison's player-tracking metrics have been mediocre but not awful during his first two seasons: 47 and 54 overall in ESPN's receiver scores (with slightly better open scores) in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Despite a rough start, the 1-4 Texans probably still believe they have a Super Bowl-caliber defense and a chance for a postseason run if they can get more talent around quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has been playing well. I don't think that's far-fetched despite their record. This is not the Texans' first attempt to upgrade at wide receiver. After second-year man Jayden Higgins suffered a torn ACL in August, Houston acquired Kayshon Boutte from the Patriots. But Boutte has managed only 1.1 yards per route run despite Nico Collins missing two games.
The Texans will get Harrison for cheap for the rest of this season and next year, and they will have a fifth-year option on him for 2028. But this move is not worth it if Harrison remains the same player he has been with the Cardinals because second-round picks have real value. Receivers who average 1.5 yards per route run can be found quite easily. The Texans are betting that Harrison can reach the upside he showed at Ohio State, including a breakout season in 2022 when Stroud was his quarterback. Having already played two-plus NFL seasons, the chances of a breakout aren't great, but they exist.
I think this trade makes sense for Arizona. The Cardinals didn't have to trade Harrison yet, but he will be worth more to a contending team than he is to them. It's likely his trade value would sink if they waited until the offseason to deal him. And Michael Wilson already had established himself as Arizona's No. 1 receiver.
Ultimately, I would not have made this trade if I were the Texans because the odds of Harrison breaking out immediately feel too low to justify the compensation. But I at least understand the thought process and desire to maximize a loaded roster's chances of making a real run to make the playoffs and win postseason games. -- Walder
Eagles trade C Jurgens to Ravens
Ravens get: C Cam Jurgens, 2027 seventh-round pick
Eagles get: 2027 fifth-round pick, 2028 second-round pick
Ravens grade: D+
Eagles grade: A
First, Tyler Linderbaum walked in free agency. Then the Ravens lost Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic to injury, suddenly leaving them without a center. Last week, Baltimore moved first-round rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane to center but evidently doesn't see that as a long-term option.
So Baltimore turned to the trade market and dealt for Jurgens. It's an interesting and unusual move, because Jurgens is no stopgap. He's only 27 years old and is already on a long-term deal after signing an extension with the Eagles in 2025.
Jurgens moved from center to left guard in Week 2 after the Eagles placed guard Landon Dickerson on injured reserve. It has not gone well. Jurgens ranks in the bottom three in both pass block and run block win rate at guard. But the Ravens are trading for Jurgens to have him play center.
In 2024, Jurgens was a Pro Bowl center who recorded pass block and run block win rates in the 80th and 50th percentiles, respectively. He made the Pro Bowl again in 2025, but his numbers slipped to the 65th and 39th percentile, respectively. He should be a stabilizing force for the Ravens -- perhaps an average to above-average center -- at what has suddenly become a position of need. But the cost is exorbitant.
The Ravens are surrendering a second-round pick (plus a swap of fifth- and seventh-round picks) for the right to pay a non-premium position player market price after this season. Jurgens is due a fully guaranteed $16 million next year. He's due $17 million (non-guaranteed) in 2028 and 2029. Jurgens' $17 million average per year for the duration of his contract makes him the fourth-highest-paid center in the league, behind only Linderbaum, Creed Humphrey and Aaron Brewer, per OverTheCap.com. By comparison, Connor McGovern, who had better numbers than Jurgens last season, makes a little over $13 million per year.
One saving grace for Baltimore is that Jurgens' salary is cheap this season. The Eagles have already paid Jurgens' option bonus, so the Ravens should be on the hook for only the remaining portion of his $1.2 million base salary.
For the Eagles, the loss of Jurgens is the latest blow to an offensive line that is already down Dickerson and recently retired tackle Lane Johnson. Jurgens hadn't played well at guard, but surely they saw him as their long-term center. Drew Kendall, who has played center after Jurgens' shift, has been below average in both pass and run block win rate this season. But the Eagles seemed to believe this was a price too good to pass up.
I understand that the Ravens rightfully believe they are Super Bowl contenders, probably want Ioane to stay and develop at guard and thought they needed to fill their gap at center. Making a trade before the deadline to fix that issue makes sense. But almost certainly there would have been cheaper options out there than this. And the timing is odd, considering that Jurgens is currently in concussion protocol and not expected to play Sunday.
So it seems like the Eagles sensed Baltimore's desperation and squeezed an overpay out of the Ravens. -- Walder
Steelers trade CB Porter to Cowboys
Cowboys get: CB Joey Porter Jr.
Steelers get: 2027 sixth-round pick, 2028 second-round pick
Cowboys grade: B
Steelers grade: C+
This is the Cowboys' third trade with the Steelers in the past 18 months (George Pickens and Broderick Jones), and it's their third trade involving a star defensive player after acquiring Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline last season and shipping Micah Parsons to Green Bay last offseason.
It's easy to see what the Cowboys are doing here. DaRon Bland, who first broke onto the scene as a slot corner, was playing on the outside given Dallas' lack of depth. By acquiring Porter, Bland can move back inside, which will allow the Cowboys to relocate 2026 first-round defensive back Caleb Downs, as well. He has been playing the slot, but his natural position is at safety. These are options, not guarantees. Bland might stay outside as the Cowboys instead pursue a strong 1-2 punch at outside corner, with Porter shadowing WR1s.
The salient point is this: Porter can have a rising tide impact on the Cowboys secondary, clarifying the roles of other players and enhancing the whole unit in the process.
Porter is not as tricky of a scheme fit in Dallas as people think, too. His strengths are certainly his length and physicality, such that he can line up in press -- but he has been in press alignments on only 30.6% of his snaps over his career, just above the league average for cornerbacks (24.1%). Porter is a much better man coverage defender than he is in zone, as his passer rating allowed in man coverage over the past four seasons is better than all but Derek Stingley Jr. But the Cowboys are actually running more man coverage (24.8%) under first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker than the league average (23.2%) over the first three weeks.
Of course, early-season rate stats can be noisy. Parker's Vic Fangio-inspired defense will require Porter to play from greater depth than he did in Pittsburgh, and the communication and keys required in that match-heavy system will take some getting used to. But Porter has a valuable and rare skill set in his press-man ability, and premium picks should be spent on players with premium traits. The Cowboys got much, much better in the secondary -- though the move is not without risk.
Acquiring Porter does not solve all their deficiencies; linebacker is still a big problem for this team, and the edge rush isn't far behind. But if the secondary needs less schematic help now that Porter is in play, more coaching tools can be used to hide those other weak spots.
For the Steelers, Porter's recurring back ailments seemed incurable without an extension or a relocation -- what can you do? It's frustrating that GM Omar Khan invested more in third-contract players like Jalen Ramsey and T.J. Watt over a younger, second-contract player like Porter -- Ramsey and Watt will hit their athletic wall far sooner than Porter. Jamel Dean, another third-contract player signed to play corner opposite Porter, now has to cover WR1s alongside Asante Samuel Jr. and 2026 third-round pick Daylen Everette. Corner is no longer a strong position on Pittsburgh's depth chart.
Porter reportedly had contract demands up at the top of the cornerback market, where Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez recently reset elite deals to clear $33 million annually. I'm not sold that Porter is a top-tier corner deserving of that top money. But because the Steelers let this go on for so long and bleed into the regular season, they were only able to acquire a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick for a young, ascendent cover corner. They could have -- and should have -- gotten at least a first-round pick by playing this differently and dealing Porter in the spring or earlier in the summer. -- Solak
Vikings trade QB McCarthy to Giants
Giants get: QB J.J. McCarthy
Vikings get: 2027 fifth-round pick
Giants grade: C
Vikings grade: B+
A mere 22 days after the Giants signed Jameis Winston to a two-year, $13 million extension, New York decided it needed to trade a fifth-round pick for an alternative at quarterback. Of course, a lot has happened in three weeks.
Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a knee injury in Week 2 that is expected to keep him out for at least the regular season. And Winston has delivered two poor performances in Dart's stead, with a 19.0 QBR in relief in Week 2 against the Rams and a 27.9 in Sunday's 12-7 win over the Titans. So in comes McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft.
McCarthy's pro career has gone poorly so far, which is putting it mildly. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in August 2024, which helped Sam Darnold become Minnesota's starting quarterback. McCarthy was named the starter last season after Darnold departed in free agency but started only 10 games after a series of injuries cost him time. And when he was on the field, the results were not good.
McCarthy posted a 36.1 QBR in 2025 (which ranked 38th out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts) and recorded a minus-5% pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (43rd out of 45). He threw interceptions at a 4.2% clip (44th), took sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks (40th) and had a 1.8% fumble rate (41st). More alarming is that he did all that while playing for Kevin O'Connell, who has seemingly elevated most of the non-McCarthy quarterbacks he has called plays for.
During training camp, not only did McCarthy lose the Vikings' starting quarterback competition to Kyler Murray, but he then lost the backup competition to Carson Wentz, too. That is a telling red flag.
So why would the Giants trade for him? McCarthy presumably still has some upside based on his draft pedigree, and the Giants are hoping they can profit from him realizing it. But it's hard not to notice the fact that this is John Harbaugh trading for the quarterback his brother, Jim Harbaugh, coached in college at Michigan.
It is difficult to know from the outside which other backup quarterbacks would have been available, but McCarthy still does not seem like an ideal choice. Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler ought to have been the team's first calls (maybe they were). Kirk Cousins probably is off the board with the Raiders sitting at 3-0. Mitchell Trubisky might have been available, considering this already looks like a lost season for Tennessee. And I'm assuming Gardner Minshew II surely must be available, considering he sits in veteran no-man's land between Jacoby Brissett and rookie Carson Beck in Arizona. Stetson Bennett IV could have been an option, too, after the Rams selected Ty Simpson in the first round of this year's draft. I'll grant that some of those options have less upside than McCarthy.
But the Giants' front office should look in the mirror over its bungling of the Winston situation. It's not unreasonable for the Giants to be aggressive in finding a better replacement given how much time is left in the season. But they clearly shouldn't have signed Winston to an extension right before the season if this is how they feel about him!
Even though Murray is a free agent at the end of this season, McCarthy's ship had already sailed in Minnesota after he couldn't beat out Wentz. If he wasn't going to be the Vikings' backup quarterback, his value would likely have continued to drop. To get a fifth-round pick while saving a few million across his remaining 2026 and 2027 compensation (not nothing!) makes sense. They have uncertainty at quarterback in 2027, yes. But that was true whether McCarthy was there or not. -- Walder
