As we inch closer to the start of the regular season -- and to fantasy draft parties -- we're breaking down the fantasy projections this week of the Cincinnati Bengals' top players. We continue with the running back position, and a look at how much game-by-game consistency could make Jeremy Hill a coveted player for fantasy owners:
Jeremy Hill
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 864.5 rushing yards, 6.9 TDs
Over or under: Given the way Hill's sophomore season played out, it's easy to want to go under on both these projections. But we're going to go over for both. After all, this is a player who rushed for more than 1,100 yards as a rookie, and had 11 touchdowns -- including 10 in goal-line territory -- last season. Based on conversations with some around the team, I've learned the Bengals have tweaked some of Hill's duties this offseason in a way that ought to be more advantageous for him. The rushing paths he's following have been simplified from last season, and it appears the Bengals are going to go back to using more I-formation fullback runs to give him the lead blocker he had more regularly as a rookie. With a little help getting to the second level from his blockers, Hill's rushing yards ought to go up, and that could impact his touchdowns, too. All the Bengals, and fantasy owners, need from Hill is week-to-week consistency. He didn't string together back-to-back double-digit fantasy point totals at all last season, despite having outings where he produced 24, 18 and 16 points for his fantasy owners. The two 1-point outings, and the lone minus-1-point outing (vs. San Diego) certainly hurt his overall production.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 621.8 rushing yards, 3.8 TDs
Over or under: Let's give Bernard's rushing yards a slight over, and his touchdowns a push. With Hill emerging once again as the top back, it's tough seeing Bernard have more scoring production in the running game. He should have the rushing yards, though, as the Bengals navigate a vastly different passing landscape than they had a year ago. As they continue searching for a No. 2 and No. 3 receiver, and try to navigate tight end Tyler Eifert's possible early season absence, the running game could take on greater importance. That would mean more yards for Hill and Bernard. Though Bernard's rushing scores might be down, his receiving ones might not be. Here's where ESPN Fantasy and I are in agreement. As the Bengals likely turn to the backs to diversify their passing game, don't be surprised if Bernard sees the end zone after catching the football some this season. After having zero receiving touchdowns in 2015, he's projected to have at least one this season.
Who else could see time: Hill and Bernard are the big workhorses in Cincinnati's run game, but Rex Burkhead and Cedric Peerman could factor into the offense in more subdued ways, too.
