Stay tuned this afternoon for our live NFL Nation mock draft on ESPN at 1 p.m. ET. Reporters from every team -- including myself -- will be in studio to make our first-round picks.
I gave you a glimpse of what my draft board looks like with the 13th pick last week. Here’s how I’m handicapping the field for pick No. 31.
Top 15 (almost certainly gone before the New Orleans Saints pick at No. 31):
QB Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
WR Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker
RB Todd Gurley
OL Brandon Scherff, La’el Collins
OLB Dante Fowler Jr., Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree
DE Leonard Williams, Arik Armstead
CB Trae Waynes
Next 10 (likely gone before Saints pick):
OL Andrus Peat, Ereck Flowers, Cameron Erving
OLB Shane Ray, Randy Gregory
DT Malcom Brown
S Landon Collins
Next 5 (I’m predicting they’ll be gone):
OT D.J. Humphries
CB Marcus Peters
Best bets for Saints at No. 31:
WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State. 6-2, 217.
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami (Fla.), 5-10, 185.
I could see several receivers landing in New Orleans at this point, and they come in all shapes and speeds -- starting with these two.
Strong tops my list because of his combination of size, speed and college production. He’s shown a great ability to go up and win battles for the ball in the air and catch back-shoulder throws. Sounds ideal for a team that just lost Jimmy Graham and will eventually need to replace Marques Colston. In two years at ASU, Strong had 157 catches for 2,287 yards and 17 touchdowns.
The biggest knock on Strong is that he doesn’t create enough separation, but he certainly has the speed to improve in that area (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds at the combine). Strong was reportedly medically cleared after having a wrist injury from last season re-checked earlier this month.
Dorsett, meanwhile, is built almost identically to New Orleans’ Brandin Cooks, which gives me a little pause. But I would trust Saints coach Sean Payton to be able to creatively mix and match Cooks, Dorsett and runner/receiver C.J. Spiller in a way that would cause headaches for opposing defenses.
Dorsett has blinding speed (reportedly timed at 4.28 seconds in the 40-yard dash at his pro day). So like Cooks, he could run deep routes or be used on short passes designed to get him open in space. His biggest drawbacks are his size/physicality and occasional drops. Dorsett had just 36 catches for 871 yards last year, but 10 of them went for TDs.
Other possibilities include USC’s Agholor, if he falls, or Ohio State’s Devin Smith, a deep-threat specialist who would bring an element the Saints’ offense is lacking. I don’t see Missouri/Oklahoma receiver Dorial Green-Beckham as a strong possibility this early in the draft because of character concerns, though his size and athleticism are enticing.
LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA. 6-0, 232. Just like the receiver position, I could see the Saints going with a number of linebackers here that come in a variety of sizes and skill sets. Kendricks, Washington’s Shaq Thompson and TCU’s Paul Dawson are smaller and maybe better suited to play outside in a 4-3 defense than inside New Orleans' 3-4. But they’re my favorites because they’re better in the open field and dropping in coverage. I’ve seen all three compared to Tampa Bay’s Lavonte David at some point -- the prototype of what I think the Saints defense lacks most.
Kendricks shows good physicality and toughness for his size, along with great instincts. He’s UCLA’s all-time leading tackler with 481 career tackles and won both the Butkus Award and Lott Trophy last year. Kendricks also had 10 sacks and five interceptions in his career.
If the Saints prefer a more physical inside linebacker, then Clemson’s Stephone Anthony, Mississippi State’s Benardrick McKinnery or Miami’s Denzel Perryman could be the choice at No. 31 or 44.
Other possibilities:
If the Saints don’t grab one of the elite pass-rushing prospects with the 13th pick, Virginia outside linebacker Eli Harold is just a notch below as another active, athletic edge rusher who had 15.5 sacks over the past two years. … If the Saints feel like all of the top speed rushers are too one-dimensional, they might prefer UCLA’s OLB/DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, who is a decent pass-rusher but even more physical and solid against the run at 6-3, 267.
Cornerback is another top need, so I could see the Saints pouncing on Wake Forest’s Johnson or UConn’s Jones if they fall -- and maybe Washington’s Peters, though he comes with character question marks. No. 31 might be a tad high for Florida State’s Ronald Darby or LSU’s Jalen Collins, but they’re possibilities here or at No. 44 in Round 2.
The Saints got the No. 31 pick in the Graham trade, so it would be fitting if they decided to help replace him here with Minnesota’s Maxx Williams, who is widely regarded as the top tight end in this year’s draft class (though nowhere near the type of offensive weapon Graham is).
The Saints could look to beef up their defensive line with Brown or Goldman, if they fall, or possibly Mississippi State DE Preston Smith at No. 31 or No. 44.
