The only time the New Orleans Saints really swung for the fences for a free agent during the Mickey Loomis-Sean Payton era was 2014, when they signed safety Jairus Byrd to a six-year, $54 million on Day 1. So far, it hasn't panned out, mostly because of injuries.
Last year, the Saints returned to their typical strategy, signing two mid-priced free agents (CB Brandon Browner at $5 million per year, RB C.J. Spiller at $4 million per year).
They whiffed even worse.
No matter which approach the Saints follow in 2016, they simply can't afford to keep striking out. Not with less than $10 million in salary-cap space to work with and plenty of holes to fill.
I expect the Saints to try and sign at least two key newcomers, with an emphasis on the defense, offensive guard and tight end positions (I broke down some of their possible top targets here, including defensive end Robert Ayers, linebacker Derrick Johnson and tight end Ladarius Green).
But the Saints might not get in a heated race as soon as the free-agency window opens at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Payton and Loomis stressed the importance of free agency way back in their postseason press conferences in January. But they both talked about the risk that comes with that elite class of free agents.
"You've got to be pretty cautious when you're going out and signing the really top, high-end expensive free agents. You've got to be cautious," Loomis said. "I think we've been cautious for the most part and yet some of them have worked out, some haven't. I don't know that that philosophy is really going to change."
"There's a lot of risk [with the top guys]," Payton said. "Because you go back every year, and you [ask], 'If those teams, us included, whoever was involved, had it to do over again, would they or wouldn't they sign that potential player?' And oftentimes that percentage is not near where you'd expect it to be.
"I think after that first week and things calm down, oftentimes there is an opportunity to sign someone who has more value. ... Just in general, the percentages and the numbers suggest that."
Payton had a great line that day about factoring in a player's health, in particular. Though he didn't mention anyone by name, Byrd's pre-existing back problem come to mind as a prime example.
"My mom's no longer alive, but she loved Sunday garage sales. That was her hobby. So we had probably 10 couches throughout my childhood. And they'd arrive with great fanfare, and then maybe on Tuesday there'd be a wobble," Payton said. "So we've just got to be careful that we're excited about it for the full term."
The Saints had a pretty decent run in free agency from 2009-13, particularly with those second- and third-tier guys, including cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Keenan Lewis, safety Darren Sharper, linebacker Curtis Lofton, running back Darren Sproles and guard Ben Grubbs, among other hits and misses.
Last year, their best moves came outside of the traditional free-agency path. They signed cornerback Delvin Breaux from the Canadian Football League, acquired center Max Unger in the Jimmy Graham trade with the Seattle Seahawks and signed veteran running back Tim Hightower in January after he spent three years out of the NFL.
Because of their limited cap space, the Saints will only get a couple of good swings at this thing. They need to make solid contact.
