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A steady stream of contract agreements over the weekend, followed by a frenzied Day 1 of the NFL's free-agent market, made for a relatively quiet Day 2. Let's take a spin around some of the more interesting developments, all while awaiting word on a running back market that still features DeMarco Murray and could include Adrian Peterson.
One of the most buzzed-about contracts of Day 2 was defensive end/linebacker Jabaal Sheard, who signed with the New England Patriots on a relatively modest two-year deal worth $11 million. Almost immediately, Sheard rocketed to the top of every "best value" list circulating the Interwebs. Why so much excitement for a player whose sack totals dwindled in every season he spent with the Cleveland Browns? Here's what ESPN personnel scout Matt Williamson had to say: "He's a tough guy that has experience as a 3-4 outside linebacker and especially a 4-3 defensive end, and the Patriots will use both. He's a perfect rotational guy with Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich to keep those guys fresh on the edge. And they didn't spend a ton on him."
Surely you've heard of "bridge quarterbacks," signed to hold down the position until a more touted alternative is ready to play. (And no, I'm not calling you Shirley.) Well, the entire 2015 season might be best viewed as a "bridge year" at the position. The New York Jets became the fourth team to trade for what could be a short-term starter while waiting out what is considered a deeply inferior draft class. Ryan Fitzpatrick could beat out Geno Smith to start for the Jets, and Matt Cassel could start for the Buffalo Bills. The Philadelphia Eagles say Sam Bradford is their starter, as do the St. Louis Rams about Nick Foles. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns signed free-agent Josh McCown as their starter, and the Houston Texans will pit Brian Hoyer in a competition against Ryan Mallett. Why will NFL fans be subjected to a season in which Fitzpatrick, Cassel, Bradford, Foles, McCown and Hoyer or Mallett comprise a fifth of the league's starters? Because, as we discussed earlier this week, early returns on this draft class suggest there are no starter-caliber options behind Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota.
That dearth of alternatives almost certainly played a role in the Chicago Bears committing to Jay Cutler for 2015, as general manager Ryan Pace confirmed Wednesday. The most significant factor here, of course, is that Cutler's $15.5 million salary was already guaranteed. If you're going to write off $15.5 million in cash, it needs to be for a clear upgrade. We've seen what teams needing help at the position have come up with. It's not pretty. Cutler's recent history doesn't conjure great optimism in 2015, but neither would any of the alternatives.
That list includes Bradford, whose injury history has clouded any deep discussion about his sketchy performance when he was on the field for the Rams. Namely, his career completion percentage is 58.6, with only one season at 60 percent or above. Eagles coach Chip Kelly made a point Wednesday, during one of the most entertaining news conferences in recent memory, to note that completion percentage is not the same as accuracy. Kelly said that factors beyond a quarterback's control can impact statistics. That's true, but the undeniable takeaway from the news conference was Kelly's revelation that he has been offered a first-round draft choice for Bradford. (He repeated it for good measure.) Some would interpret Kelly's words as an ego stroke, demonstrating that at least one other team agrees that Bradford is a valuable asset. Unless further advised, however, I'll assume it was Kelly's way of letting the NFL world know that Bradford is available for another trade.
For those who question reporters' cynicism in such situations, I'll point you to what Rams officials said last month when asked about reports that Bradford could be traded. "That's inaccurate," Rams coach Jeff Fisher said. "Let's don't delete him," general manager Les Snead said. Wednesday, of course, Bradford said he has known the Rams might trade him since about -- yes -- a month ago. We should know the drill by now. Decision-makers are not to be taken at their word this time of year.
The Indianapolis Colts' decision to sign 31-year-old running back Frank Gore and 33-year-old receiver Andre Johnson brought to mind last year's post on the recent history of aging players at both positions. The analysis, similar to what NFL teams use in developing personnel strategies, shows that the decline of most running backs over the past 15 years has started at age 27. Production drops, on average, by 40 percent at age 30. Receivers, meanwhile, have produced about the same from a yardage perspective at age 31 as they did at age 27 and are still well above their career lows by age 34. It's worth noting that Gore is one of 23 players in NFL history to record a 1,000-yard season after his 31st birthday, a list that includes only three entries in the past 10 years. Only eight have done it after turning 32, most recently Ricky Williams in 2009. Gore turns 32 in May.
Amid the NFL's annual spending spree, it's worth pointing out a case study of how routinely individual signings can fizzle. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who jumped out in free agency last year to sign defensive end Michael Johnson, offensive tackle Anthony Collins and quarterback Josh McCown to contracts that paid out about $27 million in cash over the past 12 months. The Bucs finished 2-14, earning them the No. 1 overall pick, and all three have been released. It's worth repeating: Nine of the 12 playoff teams in 2014 ranked in the bottom half of guaranteed money handed out the previous March. It's clear that the Buccaneers, under new general manager Jason Licht and coach Lovie Smith, were particularly brazen in 2014. Suffice it to say, there isn't a franchise owner in sports who likes wasting money.
