Dolphins reporter James Walker and Steelers reporter Jeremy Fowler take an in-depth look at Sunday's wild-card playoff game between Miami and Pittsburgh (1:05 p.m. ET, CBS).
Record: 10-6
2nd, AFC East
There was a quiet confidence permeating throughout the Miami Dolphins' locker room this week as they prepared for their first playoff game since 2008.
Miami has won nine of its past 11 games. The Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers -- Sunday’s opponent -- by 15 points during the regular season. Yet, players and coaches have to answer frequent questions about being 10-point underdogs with little expectation of doing damage in the playoffs.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Miami has a 0.9 percent chance of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.
“That’s how we lived this whole season," Dolphins captain and safety Michael Thomas said of being underdogs. "Even the first time we played Pittsburgh, no one gave us a chance. It’s not surprising to us that we’re 10-point underdogs this week. It doesn’t faze us. We’re going to go in prepared like we’ve always prepared. We actually prefer it that way."
The Dolphins are entering the playoffs with a “nothing to lose” attitude. Here are some important aspects of Sunday’s wild-card game from Miami’s perspective:
DOLPHINS’ X FACTOR
Wide receiver Kenny Stills has been Miami’s best-kept secret on offense all season. He leads the Dolphins in two important categories that could come into play on Sunday: touchdowns (nine) and yards per reception (17.3). Stills is heating up and has a touchdown catch in each of his past four games. He’s also Miami’s best deep threat, and the Steelers are expected to load the box often to stop Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi, who rushed for 204 yards in their previous meeting. That should provide some opportunities for Stills to make big plays down the field against Pittsburgh’s secondary.
WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL WIN
The Dolphins have done it before. They beat Pittsburgh handily, 30-15, in a game in which Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin admits Miami “got after us” in a variety of ways. Miami doesn’t have to stray far from its original game plan. The Dolphins ran the ball extremely well with Ajayi and held Pittsburgh offensive stars Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell in check, which forced other players to beat them. It’s more up to the Steelers to adjust their strategy than the Dolphins, who can win by sticking to the same formula.
WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL LOSE
Every game tells a different story, and there are plenty of differences for these two teams compared with how they were in October. Pittsburgh has won seven straight games and found its rhythm on both sides of the ball. Playing in Heinz Field also will be a much bigger challenge for the Dolphins. Miami’s health on defense is a major issue. The team is hurting at linebacker and in the secondary, which are areas Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense should take advantage of. The Dolphins have allowed an astounding 985 yards in the past two games. Miami also was just 4-4 in eight road games, and didn’t beat any team on the road with a winning record.
DOLPHINS PREDICTION
I like Miami’s mentality going into this game, but there is a reason Pittsburgh is a sizable favorite. The Dolphins don’t have many players on the roster with postseason experience, and that will show this weekend. The defense also has given up too many yards in recent weeks to suddenly turn it around against Pittsburgh’s dangerous offense. Miami is a team to watch in the future, but Pittsburgh is built more for playoff success right now.
Steelers 23, Dolphins 17
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Record: 11-5
1st, AFC North
Not many teams are hotter or healthier than the Pittsburgh Steelers, winners of seven straight and owners of a clean injury report for once.
Sunday’s AFC wild-card game against the Miami Dolphins marks the first playoff game together for Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger. “I know how hyped up I am going to be,” Bell said.
The Steelers’ playoff path is clear: Beat Miami, get Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium for the divisional round. Pittsburgh is considered a trendy challenger for the New England Patriots.
But the Steelers have spent time all week cautioning that health doesn’t equal wins necessarily. They want to keep their edge in hopes of peaking in January.
“We need to be a better team at the end of the thing than we are at the beginning of the thing,” coach Mike Tomlin said.
STEELERS’ X FACTOR
It's up to the Steelers' front seven to accept the Jay Ajayi challenge after the explosive Dolphins tailback went for 204 yards in Week 6. Rookie nose tackle Javon Hargrave will have a big job against the Dolphins' athletic offensive line. But Hargrave has shown polish and the ability to get off blocks late in his first year. On a thin defensive line, Hargrave and defensive end Stephon Tuitt need to cause havoc up front, either redirecting Ajayi or clogging up holes while help defense comes. Rookie defensive backs Artie Burns and Sean Davis might get more acclaim, but Hargrave also has played at a high level with 27 tackles and two sacks.
WHY THE STEELERS WILL WIN
Roethlisberger is better in Heinz Field, posting 5,458 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his past 16 games at home. A suddenly stingy defense has allowed 17.3 points per game over the past seven games and has cracked the top 10 in sacks (38.0) with a late-season surge. The Steelers are still salty about losing 30-15 in Miami in Week 6. The Steelers can control the ball with Bell, who’s averaging more than 5 yards per carry in the second half of the season. That’s a bad number for Miami’s 30th-ranked run defense. Impressively, Roethlisberger has been sacked 17 times in 15 games. And Pittsburgh has won four of its past five home playoff games.
WHY THE STEELERS WILL LOSE
Line play. A stout offensive line and the physical running of Ajayi appear to be a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s defense. Run the ball effectively and wear Pittsburgh down, and Miami can win. From tight ends to receivers, the Dolphins’ overall blocking is solid. Receiver Jarvis Landry can pile up yards from the middle of the field. On defense, Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake comprise a good enough front to cause Pittsburgh problems in the pass rush. Matt Moore is an efficient backup, posting eight touchdowns to three interceptions and a 105.6 passer rating in relief duty. The Steelers have been burned by worse quarterbacks.
STEELERS PREDICTION
The Steelers have no excuses, and they know it. As a double-digit favorite, Pittsburgh will be expected to win its one-on-one matchups against Miami, which is missing two starters in the defensive backfield and Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey. The playoffs are often about attrition, and the Steelers are healthier. If the Steelers can manage nearly 240 fourth-quarter yards on the Baltimore Ravens, one of the league’s best defenses, they should be able to move the ball on Miami’s 29th-ranked unit.
Steelers 27, Dolphins 20
