Since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback in 2012, the Seattle Seahawks have finished first (twice), third and seventh in Football Outsiders' rushing efficiency rankings.
And even though the transition occurred last season, this is the first time they'll have to get the ground game going without Marshawn Lynch on the roster.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 1,171.1 yards, 6 TDs
Over or under: Take the under on the yards and the over on the touchdowns. I'm a complete believer in Rawls' ability. As a rookie, he led the NFL in yards per carry (5.65) and average yards after contact (2.68). He showed excellent vision and physicality in his first NFL season, but there are concerns. Most notably, Rawls is coming off of a season-ending ankle injury that required eight months of rehab and recovery. He's back at practice and started participating in some team drills Monday, but there's always a degree of unpredictability when it comes to projecting how guys are going to look when they return from serious injuries.
It's certainly possible that Rawls exceeds the fantasy projection of 1,171 yards, but it's worth noting that last season only two running backs had a higher yardage total. This should be a good offense, and Rawls should get plenty of work in the red zone, so it'd be no surprise if he doubled his touchdown total (four) from a year ago.
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 96.2 yards, 0.5 TDs
Over or under: I suspect that this projection will look much different when the rankings are updated. Michael could exceed those totals in the first week or two and is an easy over on both accounts. Pete Carroll said recently that he's excited about the possibility of Rawls and Michael as a one-two punch. Coaches insist that Michael is a changed man, and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said that the running back has had an awakening.
When Michael returned to the Seahawks last season (Weeks 14 to 17), he averaged 4.92 YPC. His 3.41 yards after contact average during that span was tops among all NFL running backs.
I still think Rawls will be the featured back, but Michael has value. He could see six to eight touches per game and has upside if Rawls struggles to return to 100 percent off the injury.
Who else could see time: It's important to note that even last season, when Wilson led the NFL in passer rating, the Seahawks were a run-first offense with backs totaling 384 carries or about 24 per game.
The Seahawks drafted C.J. Prosise in the third round and Alex Collins in the fifth. Prosise projects as the third-down back, but he had missed all of training camp with a hamstring injury prior to returning Monday. Collins should make the roster but will have to compete for playing time.
These projections could change considerably depending on how the rest of the preseason plays out. But if I were dividing up the carries right now, I'd have Rawls at 15 per game; Michael at seven; and two to the other backs.
