The Seattle Seahawks might be one of the teams most impacted by the NFL's move to a virtual NFL draft amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Just consider general manager John Schneider's proclivity for trading and all the moving parts that are associated with swapping picks on draft day under normal circumstances, let alone these unprecedented ones.
"That's a really specific question about this whole thing that really is going to be affected by it," coach Pete Carroll told SiriusXM NFL Radio when asked about the potential difficulty in trading during a virtual draft.
Carroll then pulled back the draft-room curtain and detailed the mechanics of a trade, all of which occur under the gun of a ticking clock. There are 10 minutes between picks in the first round, seven in the second round, five in Rounds 3 through 6 and four in Round 7.
"I think it's hard for people on the outside to realize how intricate and how timely the urgency is during those moments leading up into your pick, because you have minutes, and then you have a minute, and then you're down to 30 [seconds]," Carroll said. "And what happens is, we have a lot of guys that are talking to other clubs and they're gaining information and there could be a pick coming up where you have four or five teams -- this is not uncommon ... that you're talking to about wanting the position you're choosing at. They want a player they have in mind at that pick and so they're calling you."
When an offer comes in, teams calculate what they'd give up in a proposed trade versus what they'd get back by consulting a chart that assigns a numbered value to every draft pick.
"There's kind of a chart that we work from and not everybody uses exactly the same thing," Carroll said, "but all of that has to be added up and totaled right at the moment, and you're looking across the table at a guy who's talking to the other club, and he's scribbling down the numbers and he hands them across to John and we're sitting there looking, 'OK, which way are we going? We've got three cards -- which one are we going with?'
"Well, if anything happens, any glitch in that happens ..."
Since 2010, the year Carroll and Schneider came to Seattle, the Seahawks' 27 draft-day trades are tied for sixth most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Their 16 such trades since 2016, which include seven last year, are tied for third most with the Rams. Only the Patriots (22) and Vikings (19) have more in that span.
While the Seahawks have made notable moves up the draft board -- including last year for wide receiver DK Metcalf -- they've moved back much more often. Trading down in the first round, if not out of it entirely, has become the one predictable move for a team that is otherwise as unpredictable as any.
The Seahawks have done so in six of the past eight years. The two exceptions were when they gave up their first-rounders in March trades for Percy Harvin (2013) and Jimmy Graham (2015). Not since 2011 (James Carpenter, No. 25 overall) have they used their native first-rounder in its original spot, though they took L.J. Collier at No. 29 last year after acquiring that pick in the Frank Clark trade.
To understand why the trade-down approach makes sense, consider one of the drawbacks of making the playoffs in eight of the past 10 seasons -- the Seahawks' assigned first-round pick is usually between Nos. 21 and 32. Problem is, there are usually fewer than 32 unanimous first-round talents in any draft. In some years, there might be fewer than 20 prospects whom the Seahawks have given a first-round grade, meaning they're often left to choose from second-round talents when their first pick comes up.
Over the past 10 drafts, pick Nos. 21-32 produced 28 Pro Bowlers compared to 22 at Nos. 33-44, per ESPN Stats & Info research. Picks 9-20 produced 43 Pro Bowlers in that span. So for teams like the Seahawks, trading back is a worthwhile proposition given the extra selections they acquire and minimal talent drop-off early in the second round compared to late in the first.
One thing Carroll didn't mention is that for trades to go through in a normal draft, both teams have to separately call the league and confirm. In some cases, one team will call in the trade with not much time to spare, then hold its breath and hope the other team beats the clock.
It all sounds chaotic enough even when a team's draft personnel are operating out of one room. It'll be different with team facilities closed and everyone working from home. According to ESPN's Kevin Seifert, each team's decision-makers will be connected to each other via video conference through a modified Microsoft Teams application similar to Zoom. They'll have a separate broadband connection with league officials to make their selections, with landlines and email serving as a backup in the event of a technical glitch. The setup could be tweaked after a 32-team test run.
Groundwork for draft-day trades is often laid in advance, so the Seahawks should have an idea of who might want to move up for their first-round pick, No. 27 overall. And as one talent evaluator put it, Schneider possesses a "magical" feel for what other teams are looking to do in the draft.
That intel will help him as he tries to maintain his typical trade-heavy approach under atypical circumstances.
"It's going to be fascinating, really," Carroll said. "I don't know that it's going to be as much fun because you won't be in the same room with all the guys where all the juice happens and all the energy and you get fired up, people are scrambling and battling and all that and the comments are flying. It'll be different in that regard. But we'll figure it out. We'll get it done ... It's going to be amazing."
