TAMPA, Fla. -- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't reach the playoffs in 2016, which means a lot more time could be spent monitoring the trends of teams who did make the postseason. Granted, no two teams are exactly alike, and there are outliers, but looking at stat patterns and personnel groupings can give an idea of what made them so successful during the regular season and give clues as to where the Bucs are lacking or would simply want to make changes.
Get a top-five scoring offense
Three out of the four remaining playoff teams had top-five offenses during the regular season, with the only outlier being the Steelers, who came in at No. 9 in terms of total points scored. Together, this entire group averaged 28 points per game, well above the league average of 22.
The New Orleans Saints were the one top-five offense that didn’t make the postseason, but their deficiencies as a defense were well-documented. It should also be noted that the Steelers had the sixth-ranked offense in Weeks 12-17, so they did find their stride at the right time.
Run the ball well in December
Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith said that teams who usually run the ball well in December and play good defense reach the postseason. Every team that reached the postseason this year, with the exception of the Detroit Lions, rushed for over 100 yards in Weeks 13-17, with the entire group averaging 121.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bucs averaged 86.7 yards on the ground during that time frame, 27th in the league.
The Falcons went 4-1 in December and averaged 5.18 yards per carry during that time span, which was third in the league and a jump from 4.58 during the regular season. The Packers rushed for 4.97 yards per carry and went 5-0 in December, which was fifth in the league, and also an improvement from the 4.55 posted in the regular season.
Smith’s idea also held true for first and second down. Three out of the four remaining playoff teams were top five in rushing attempts on first and second down in the month of December (Patriots, Steelers and Falcons). This doesn’t necessarily mean they were the most successful at it, but they attempted to run the ball on first and second down more than any other teams in the league.
Play good defense in December
As for the other part of Smith's statement, with the defense, six of the 12 postseason teams were in the top six as far as fewest yards allowed per game in December. The Patriots, who went 5-0 during that span, allowed an average of just 10.6 points per game in Weeks 13-17.
Smith’s argument really relates to time of possession, and this year, eight of the top-10 teams in time of possession for the month of December -- Patriots, Texans, Steelers, Seahawks, Falcons, Lions, Giants and Chiefs -- all reached the playoffs. The Bucs were 25th in time of possession in the month of December, with an average possession time of 28:58. For the entire season, however, the Bucs had an average time of possession of 30:57, seventh in the league.
Be really, really efficient in the red zone
Three out of the four remaining teams in the playoffs were top four in the red zone (the Saints and Cowboys are also included in this) during the regular season, with an average of 39 touchdowns in the red zone, 10 points better than the league average. The Bucs had 27, tied for 17th in the league.
Get some yards after the catch
Eight of the NFL’s 12 playoff teams were top 12 in yards after the catch, something Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter said the team needs to work on. Those teams averaged 2,131 yards after the catch total for their seasons (averaging 133.18 yards after the catch per game). The Bucs were 29th in the league in this department, with 1,431 yards after the catch (89.44 yards after the catch per game).
It should also be noted that seven out of the top 10 in reception yards after contact (Patriots, Dolphins, Giants, Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Packers) all reached the postseason. The Bucs averaged 1.05 yards per reception after contact.
Don’t turn the ball over
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan were top four in touchdown-to-interception ratio (Dak Prescott was second). Brady, Rodgers and Ryan averaged a 6.63 touchdown-to-interception ratio, well beyond the league average of 2.10. Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston had a 1.56 ratio.
Personnel groupings
The Falcons and Patriots (along with the Bills) used more two-back sets than any other teams in the league. The Pats used them a whopping 368 times while the Falcons used them 305 times. The teams that reached the playoffs used two-back sets, on average, 149 times. The Bucs used two-back sets a total of 10 times. Was this due to injuries suffered at running back? Likely not, as the Bucs utilized two-back sets 10 times in 2015.
Teams that reached the playoffs utilized seven pass-blockers, on average, 36 times each this season. The Bucs had to utilize extra blockers 61 times this year, above the league-wide average of 43 times. Keep in mind, any time a team has to utilize extra blockers to protect the quarterback, it's limiting his options in the passing game. They can fix this by solidifying their offensive line.
Dime coverage (six defensive backs) was prevalent for three of the four remaining playoff teams. The Falcons, Patriots and Packers utilized this defense, on average, 137 times this year and were among the top seven in this category. The league utilized dime coverage, on average, 91 times. The Falcons also played a significant amount of quarters coverage (110 snaps), more than any other team in the league and nearly double the next team. This coverage makes teams susceptible to run plays and would allow just one linebacker on the field, not ideal when the Bucs have two studs in Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander.
