All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday's top batter prop bets
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+451)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.53 EV
George Lombard Jr. | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-106)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.66 EV
Ezequiel Duran | OVER 0.5 RBI (+315)
Projection: 28% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.70 EV
Jonathan Aranda | OVER 0.5 RBI (+233)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.61 EV
Kyle Schwarber | UNDER 0.5 H (+155)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.77 EV
Thursday's top pitcher prop bets
Hagen Smith | OVER 2.5 K (-115)
Projection: 78% chance of this bet hitting, with a $52.10 EV
Max Fried | OVER 5.5 K (-104)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.85 EV
Jared Jones | UNDER 1.5 ER (+113)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.00 EV
Jacob deGrom | UNDER 1.5 ER (+102)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.90 EV
Logan Gilbert | OVER 6.5 K (-108)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.02 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Tampa Bay Rays Team Total OVER:
The Rays have gone over this total in five consecutive road games. (+5.20 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -140
Atlanta Braves 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Atlanta has been under this total in five straight contests. (+5.10 Units / 79% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -154
Houston Astros Run Line:
Houston has won this bet eight times in the team's last 10 games. (+6.70 Units / 46% ROI). Current odds: 1 @ +107
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline:
The Pirates have won four of their last five road contests. (+3.30 Units / 61% ROI). Current odds: -110
