NFL Week 4 betting guide: Analysis and top plays for Sunday's games

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and moneylines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 4.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's Game of the Week | Solak's plays | Walder's props

Bowen's Game of the Week

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48.5)
1 p.m. ET on CBS, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

The Buffalo Bills, the AFC favorite to reach the Super Bowl, will host last season's AFC Super Bowl representative, the New England Patriots, in a matchup of AFC East rivals Sunday.

The Patriots will need game plan answers on both sides of the ball to counter the Bills' high-scoring offense, and they'll have to create a more defined passing game without A.J. Brown (ankle) on the field. I like the Bills to win and cover in this one, and in a divisional game with this level of coaching and familiarity, I'll take the under on the total. Let's check out both clubs, and I'll add some props at the end to play, too.

When the Bills have the ball: In their Week 3 win over the Chargers, the Bills failed to control offensive tempo, and they turned the ball over. It happens in this league. But don't let one game change the narrative on an explosive Bills offense leading the NFL in scoring (33.7 PPG) and producing top-10 numbers in both passing and rushing. Quarterback Josh Allen will see heavy single-high coverage from New England (both man and zone), which creates opportunities for the Bills to scheme for crossing concepts and big-play throws on deep over routes, and they can also attack the seams with tight end Dalton Kincaid. The man matchup to watch to here is DJ Moore against Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), if the Patriots corner is up for the game. Best versus best.

And let's not forget the offensive balance the Bills have with running back James Cook III, who has produced back-to-back games with at least 135 yards rushing, against a New England defense allowing 4.8 YPC. The question I always have for teams versus Allen, given his dual-threat ability, is how much man coverage can you play? And what is your answer for Allen as a runner in the low red zone? Let's see how the Patriots counter, as Allen has rushed for two scores in all three games played this season. He's the league's ultimate difference-maker.

When the Patriots have the ball: Quarterback Drake Maye has made some reckless decisions with the ball, throwing a league-high six interceptions and registering a 45.9 QBR (25th in the league). But I'm not going to put this all on Maye, as the Patriots' wide receiver group is lacking juice and matchup edges. With Brown on IR, who is the boundary X to win the one-on-ones? The tape shows us that the New England wideouts aren't creating separation at a high rate. The key here is for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to scheme more defined throws -- while having answers to pressure -- versus a Bills defense that has been more zone-heavy (65.9% of opponent dropbacks). Maye is going to see split-safety coverage. Lift the safeties here and create those middle-of-the-field voids for the quarterback to drive the ball.

More importantly, the Patriots need to generate some run-game efficiency with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to get the Bills out of two-deep coverage. The Patriots are averaging 3.9 YPC (20th in the league) with an explosive run rate of 8.2% (25th). No question on the numbers here. They are down. Let's see how McDaniels game-plans for Jim Leonhard and the Bills' new defensive scheme to get his QB rolling again. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Patriots try to muddy this one up with a ball control/play-action script.

Now, let's get to some prop bets ...

James Cook III rushing yards OVER 88.5 (-111)

As mentioned, Cook has rushed for 135-plus in two straight, and he's averaging 19.3 carries per game. Plus, Cook has 12 rushes of 10 or more yards this season. Take the steady volume and the explosive-play ability here.

Hunter Henry receiving yards OVER 30.5 (-110)

Henry has topped the 31-yard mark just once this season, and he was held to just one reception in the Week 3 loss to Jacksonville. However, I see the tight end as an answer to the two-high zone coverage of the Bills. Henry can be the outlet for Maye, while also pressing the seams.

DJ Moore receptions OVER 3.5 (-133)

The juice isn't friendly on this one, but that's a low reception total for Moore. In the two full games Moore has played (he left Week 2 early with an injury), he had at least five receptions in both. Look for the Bills to use motion to deploy Moore, getting him free access off the ball versus man coverage.

Solak's plays

Detroit Lions -3.5 (-112) at Carolina Panthers

It's important to watch the forecast for this game as we get closer to kickoff. There's a good chance of rain showers Sunday night, and we know that Jared Goff's performance as a passer can be impacted more by bad weather, given his smaller hands. But I still feel comfortable taking this bet at this number because of the Panthers' injury issues. Both starting cornerbacks are expected to miss this game, which all but precludes Carolina from playing man coverage against Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. If the Panthers take a zone-heavy approach, expect Jahmyr Gibbs to run wild -- heck, expect Gibbs to run wild anyway, as the Panthers are giving up more rushing yards per game to running backs than any other defense. Have I mentioned the Panthers' passing defense is also among the league worst against tight ends?

The Lions have Carolina outgunned offensively, and I'm not sure Bryce Young can keep scoring pace. Receiver Jalen Coker (quad) is questionable, three starting offensive linemen (Ikem Ekwonu, Damien Lewis and Taylor Moton) are out, and a key backup (Monroe Freeling) is in concussion protocol. Detroit's defense is extremely gettable through the air, but the Lions have enough pass rush power to generate sacks and turnovers such that the Panthers can't keep this shootout within one score.

Los Angeles Rams -3 (-115) at Philadelphia Eagles

I would only take this line at -3 (up to -120) and not buy the hook, so move quickly here. DeVonta Smith missed practice Thursday with his hamstring injury, which officially moves him into the "seriously questionable" category as we approach Sunday. I already leaned to the Rams' side with a healthy Smith. If he can't go, the Eagles' receiver corps will feature Dontayvion Wicks, first-round rookie Makai Lemon and Hollywood Brown against the loaded Rams secondary. Remember, pass-catching tight end Dallas Goedert is also out with a knee injury.

The Eagles' defense had a brutal night last Monday against the Chicago Bears' passing attack, regularly suffering communication issues as the Bears sent receivers in motion. They get another motion-heavy passing attack in Sean McVay's Rams offense, which gets Puka Nacua back at a critical time -- at 1-2, the Rams need a road win to prevent the sirens from screaming in their Super Bowl-aspiring season. They also have a vengeance play here, as they gave up a big second-half lead to the Eagles last season ... then lost the game on a would-be game-winning field goal that was blocked by Jordan Davis.

The Eagles simply have too many personnel deficiencies to ignore against a team as deep and talented as the Rams. Get this line before Smith news pushes it higher before kickoff.

Miami Dolphins team total points UNDER 13.5 (-115)

Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores is calling defense for the first time against his old team. He has downplayed the importance of facing Miami, but I'd imagine the leaders in the locker room know how big of a game this is for their top-flight coordinator. I also think this is about as big of a mismatch as we will see this season. The Dolphins are without running back De'Von Achane, who provided much-needed game-breaking ability from the running back spot. Without him, the Dolphins' best chance for chunk gains will come from the passing game, which is a scary proposition against Flores' blitz-heavy approach. Bobby Slowik, the new offensive coordinator in Miami, lost his job in Houston in large part due to predictable protection rules that were easily exploited by opposing defensive coordinators -- and no coach has been better attacking the Mike Shanahan system in pass protection than Flores. I'm tracking under 13.5 at -115 for a full unit and under 7.5 points at +285 for a half unit. A shutout at 13-1 would be fun, but that's too short of a price to take seriously.

play

Why Omarion Hampton was so disappointing in fantasy in Week 3

Omarion Hampton rushing yards UNDER 45.5 (-109)

Hampton's share of carries took a hit last week, as he saw 57.7% of the designed rushes after holding 76.7% and 75.0% in the first two weeks of the season, respectively. The Los Angeles Chargers wanted to get Keaton Mitchell more involved as they looked for any sort of juice on offense, and it was a better day for the running game overall. I expect a time share moving forward. But it will be a tough test against the Seattle Seahawks, who boast the best run-defending line in football. There might be no greater mismatch in Week 4 than the Chargers' interior offensive line against defensive tackles Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams. If the Chargers are to find any success on the ground, they'll need to get the ball to the boundary -- those are the Mitchell plays, not the Hampton plays. The Chargers were able to run the ball a lot more last week as they tripped into an early lead after the Bills' many turnovers, but it's more likely they get stuck in a trailing game script in this one. Hampton has big-play ability if he breaks into space, so taking the under on attempts might be a safer approach. I didn't want to pay the juice at under 13.5 attempts at -123 as of this posting, but if under 12.5 appears, I'll be interested in taking that.

Kaleb Johnson rushing attempts OVER 8.5 (-115)

The Green Bay Packers' lack of a handoff game is harrowing. Through three games, the Packers have 146 total rushing yards from running backs -- eighth fewest for a team through three games over the past six seasons. The one-dimensionality on offense particularly haunted them against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night, but they've had a long week to explore offensive line reinforcements and recommit to the rushing attack. Green Bay has the fifth-highest pass rate over expectation per Next Gen Stats. Behind that offensive line? No shot. They need to find a rushing attack, and they know it.

Critically, the Packers draw a rookie UDFA quarterback (Jalon Daniels) making his first career start for a bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers team. The potential to build an actual lead and salt it away should also increase the total handoffs in this game. The Packers clearly don't trust MarShawn Lloyd as a ball carrier, and Chris Brooks is the third-down back. If the running game plays a bigger role this week in a leading game script, Johnson is the most likely beneficiary. I prefer Johnson's attempts to his yardage totals, simply because the Packers' line is still a problem. But both are bettable as his role expands.

Woody Marks rushing yards OVER 33.5 (-114)

Our Dan Graziano reported this week that his sense of the Houston Texans' running game is that more work should go Marks' way. I'm inclined to agree. David Montgomery is a good stay-ahead-of-the-sticks rusher, but with Houston's offensive line issues, he has been unable to solve their short-yardage problems on his own. By getting the ball to Marks on the outside, the Texans can find bigger runs without worrying as much about their interior offensive line play.

The Dallas Cowboys have given up 114.3 rushing yards per game to running backs through three weeks, fifth worst in the league. They have played three mobile QBs (Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson) who make run defense more challenging, but the eye test confirms the liability of players like outside linebackers Rashan Gary and Donovan Ezeiruaku in setting a hard edge.

With Nico Collins back in the starting lineup for Houston, the temptation is to think the Texans will become more pass-heavy -- but their offensive philosophy this season was always to give C.J. Stroud a better running game. I'd take Marks to 36.5 this week, and I'd look at some longest rush props as well.

Check out the latest Super Bowl odds and major NFL awards futures.

Zay Flowers receiving yards OVER 66.5 (-110)

I had all sorts of Flowers overs to target against the Cowboys last week, but his hamstring injury limited him to just 15 routes. Of course, he still went over his yardage prop with 84 yards on only 15 routes. Flowers is a huge-play star-in-the-making in this Declan Doyle offense, and the books still haven't caught up.

Flowers has now only played 1.5 games of football through three weeks, and four of those six quarters were with load management. Yet, he has 234 receiving yards and a whopping 9.36 yards per route run because of how easily the Baltimore Ravens are getting him open with motion, backfield alignment and play-action pass fakes. He's as central to this passing attack as Jaxon Smith-Njigba is to Seattle's, and as he strings together full healthy games, we'll never see a number in the 60s for him again.

If you're worried about continued management on the hamstring injury, especially in a game the Ravens might dominate, consider taking Flowers' first-quarter receiving props (over 14.5 receiving yards is +100) to ensure the Ravens are still in their base offense.

Michael Mayer receiving yards OVER 21.5 (-116)

In Brock Bowers' first game back healthy, Mayer's route share was totally unaffected. Mayer ran a route on 71% of the Las Vegas Raiders' dropbacks in Week 1, 72% in Week 2, and 70% in Week 3. That's because the Raiders are using Bowers like a true wide receiver. They were in multiple-TE sets on over 80% of their total snaps, and with Bowers typically in slot or wide alignments, Mayer got the matchups against linebackers and safeties from his traditional inline alignments. Throw in the fact that the Raiders' traditional wide receivers are a thin group without much demand for targets, and I still think Mayer is the second target after Bowers. As opposing defenses spend more resources to take Bowers out of the game plan, it's Mayer who will benefit. The Raiders have a good shot of a trailing game script against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs' run-heavy approach shortens the clock and makes it a little tougher to take receptions, so I prefer receiving yards here. But if we get into a big score deficit in the second half, I'll look for a live receptions over on Mayer.

Walder's prop bets

play

‘JORDAN LOVE HAS NO CHANCE TO BE SUCCESSFUL!’ - Dan Orlovsky on the Packers

Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available

Defensive plays

Miami Dolphins to record first sack of game (+170)

On one hand, this is bold because the Dolphins have not sacked the quarterback this season. Not once. On the other hand, maybe it's not that bold, because the Minnesota Vikings have taken sacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL (10.2%). Granted, that was partially with Carson Wentz in the lineup, and now Minnesota has a more mobile Kyler Murray back. But still, my belief has always been that the quarterback and offense control sacks more than the defense. I spun up a new model for this category just this week, and it seems like it agrees, considering it has the Dolphins as a plus-money value.

Arizona Cardinals to NOT give up a sack on their first drive (-411)

One of the biggest disappointments of the season thus far has been a New York Giants pass rush that has managed a 1.0% sack rate, second worst among all teams. Their pass rush win rate tells a similar story; it ranks 25th best. Now, the Cardinals' pass protection has also not been good this year, ranking second worst in pass block win rate. Despite that, they have allowed sacks on just 4.1% of dropbacks, better than the league average of 6.0%. My model believes their chances of giving up a sack on their opening drive is quite a bit lower than these odds suggest.

Offensive plays

Jordan Love pass attempts UNDER 35.5 (-119)

The Green Bay Packers have been pass-heavy in 2026, with the sixth-highest pass rate over expectation according to NFL Next Gen Stats. My attempts model assumes that is going to come down, because leaning that heavily on the pass game is not what the Packers have done in the past under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay ranked 26th in the same category last season. But there's also this: The Packers' offensive line has struggled immensely. I can only imagine they would want to limit the number of times Love drops back on Sunday, especially against Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles, who loves to blitz.

Jaylen Wright receptions OVER 1.5 (+180)

Wright and Ollie Gordon II will handle the backfield workload in the wake of De'Von Achane's season-ending ACL injury. Both have almost no experience catching the ball in the pros, but someone is going to have to catch passes out of the backfield -- and that's especially true this week. That's because the Miami Dolphins are playing the Minnesota Vikings, one of the most zone-heavy teams in the league (78% zone). Running backs catch passes against zone coverage almost twice as frequently compared to when they face man coverage, and in my back tests, betting the receptions over on running backs facing zone-heavy defenses has been profitable.