Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2024 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2024 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 322 403 81 17 115 1319 12 2. Malik Nabers , NYG 290 274 -16 15 109 1304 8 3. Drake London , ATL 284 281 -3 17 97 1286 10 4. Justin Jefferson , MIN 279 317 39 17 94 1244 10 5. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 261 252 -9 17 102 1129 8 6. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 258 263 5 15 104 1102 6 7. Courtland Sutton , DEN 254 240 -14 17 82 1192 9 8. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 254 316 62 17 99 1051 8 9. Davante Adams , LV 50 45 -5 3 18 213 2 9. Davante Adams , NYJ 195 196 1 11 72 788 8 10. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAX 241 284 43 17 85 1071 7 11. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 241 241 0 17 90 1177 6 12. DJ Moore , CHI 239 238 -1 17 98 987 6 13. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 237 253 16 17 92 1023 7 14. Tyreek Hill , MIA 227 218 -8 17 77 998 7 15. Terry McLaurin , WAS 219 268 49 17 68 1014 8 16. Calvin Ridley , TEN 216 199 -17 17 67 1148 5 17. Jakobi Meyers , LV 216 218 2 15 82 990 6 18. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 215 183 -33 17 101 913 4 19. Zay Flowers , BAL 208 210 1 17 78 975 4 20. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 205 197 -8 17 61 964 8 21. Keenan Allen , CHI 203 184 -18 15 75 892 7 22. Mike Evans , TB 202 240 38 14 68 904 7 23. Tee Higgins , CIN 199 222 24 12 64 831 9 24. Jauan Jennings , SF 196 211 15 15 71 884 6 25. Xavier Worthy , KC 192 187 -5 17 68 728 5 26. Ladd McConkey , LAC 191 241 50 16 75 894 4 27. Rome Odunze , CHI 189 145 -45 17 59 887 7 28. Jordan Addison , MIN 189 213 23 15 60 847 7 29. DK Metcalf , SEA 188 191 3 15 61 972 5 30. George Pickens , PIT 184 164 -19 14 56 852 7 31. Puka Nacua , LAR 184 207 23 11 74 772 3 32. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 183 166 -18 16 69 918 4 33. Nico Collins , HOU 178 211 33 12 63 803 6 34. Darnell Mooney , ATL 178 193 16 16 63 905 4 35. Josh Downs , IND 176 184 7 14 75 732 5 36. Jameson Williams , DET 171 212 41 15 60 774 4 37. Cooper Kupp , LAR 171 175 4 12 68 731 5 38. A.J. Brown , PHI 171 217 46 13 57 804 6 39. Deebo Samuel Sr. , SF 169 154 -15 15 54 592 3 40. Quentin Johnston , LAC 161 175 13 15 58 726 5 41. Khalil Shakir , BUF 160 183 22 15 75 678 3 42. Elijah Moore , CLE 160 121 -39 17 65 806 2 43. DeVonta Smith , PHI 152 199 47 13 58 654 4 44. Xavier Legette , CAR 150 125 -25 16 49 690 5 45. Tank Dell , HOU 150 140 -10 14 48 702 4 46. Jayden Reed , GB 148 197 49 17 54 578 3 47. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 145 150 5 15 60 660 3 48. Amari Cooper , BUF 53 62 8 8 19 277 1 48. Amari Cooper , CLE 89 61 -28 6 32 454 2 49. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 142 152 10 17 47 641 5 50. DeAndre Hopkins , KC 105 109 3 10 35 453 4 50. DeAndre Hopkins , TEN 36 38 3 6 14 165 1 51. DeMario Douglas , NE 141 148 7 17 64 613 2 52. Tre Tucker , LV 140 129 -11 17 47 670 3 53. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 140 111 -30 17 48 622 5 54. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 140 141 1 17 59 628 2 55. Rashod Bateman , BAL 138 175 37 17 46 648 5 56. Alec Pierce , IND 134 161 28 16 34 740 4 57. Tyler Lockett , SEA 131 121 -10 17 44 599 4 58. Diontae Johnson , BAL 10 2 -9 4 3 55 0 58. Diontae Johnson , CAR 110 84 -26 7 35 453 5 58. Diontae Johnson , HOU 8 3 -5 1 3 28 0 59. Romeo Doubs , GB 127 132 5 13 44 607 4 60. Demarcus Robinson , LAR 125 124 -1 17 34 562 6 61. Darius Slayton , NYG 122 110 -12 16 38 620 3 62. Michael Wilson , ARI 119 125 5 16 42 559 3 63. Jalen McMillan , TB 116 135 19 13 38 489 4 64. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 116 120 4 17 37 505 5 65. Kayshon Boutte , NE 116 122 6 15 39 609 3 66. Adam Thielen , CAR 111 140 28 10 40 515 3 67. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , TEN 111 136 25 17 33 501 5 68. Keon Coleman , BUF 108 112 4 13 28 506 5 69. Allen Lazard , NYJ 108 126 18 12 39 511 3 70. Joshua Palmer , LAC 108 107 0 15 37 571 2 71. Christian Watson , GB 107 105 -2 15 26 546 4 72. Olamide Zaccheaus , WAS 106 112 6 17 49 447 2 73. Tutu Atwell , LAR 104 99 -5 17 43 520 1 74. Stefon Diggs , HOU 104 122 18 8 41 483 2 75. Adonai Mitchell , IND 103 54 -49 17 31 459 4 76. Chris Godwin , TB 101 138 36 7 47 419 2 77. Calvin Austin III , PIT 101 119 18 17 36 493 3 78. David Moore , CAR 100 85 -15 17 32 462 3 79. Brandin Cooks , DAL 99 70 -29 10 28 434 4 80. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 99 130 31 17 39 385 2 81. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 98 104 6 17 33 390 3 82. Troy Franklin , DEN 98 67 -31 16 35 470 2 83. Sterling Shepard , TB 95 80 -15 14 35 390 2 84. Mack Hollins , BUF 93 99 6 17 30 412 4 85. Tyler Boyd , TEN 92 78 -14 16 36 417 2 86. Devaughn Vele , DEN 92 107 15 13 36 404 3 87. Jalen Nailor , MIN 90 103 13 17 27 363 4 88. Noah Brown , WAS 90 86 -4 11 35 474 1 89. Parker Washington , JAX 88 97 9 17 32 419 2 90. Gabe Davis , JAX 88 54 -34 10 24 372 4 91. Cedric Tillman , CLE 87 80 -7 11 30 401 3 92. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , BUF 14 5 -9 6 5 88 0 92. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , NO 72 80 7 8 20 372 2 93. Rashid Shaheed , NO 86 80 -6 6 23 410 3 94. Christian Kirk , JAX 85 71 -15 8 29 422 2 95. Greg Dortch , ARI 84 90 7 17 37 323 2 96. Tim Patrick , DET 83 92 9 16 30 367 3 97. Ricky Pearsall , SF 82 94 11 11 29 389 2 98. Jalen Coker , CAR 82 93 11 11 27 383 3 99. Brandon Aiyuk , SF 81 62 -18 7 27 386 3 100. Curtis Samuel , BUF 80 64 -16 14 34 302 2 101. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 79 64 -14 17 33 316 2 102. Chris Olave , NO 78 77 -1 8 28 346 2 103. Dyami Brown , WAS 74 67 -7 16 29 303 2 104. Van Jefferson , PIT 73 64 -9 17 24 320 3 105. Tyler Johnson , LAR 69 61 -8 15 27 272 3 106. Jonathan Mingo , CAR 41 23 -18 9 17 203 0 106. Jonathan Mingo , DAL 27 10 -17 8 8 133 1 107. John Metchie III , HOU 66 55 -10 13 23 286 2 108. Justin Watson , KC 61 63 2 17 20 301 2 109. Kendrick Bourne , NE 61 65 4 12 23 283 1 110. Malik Washington , MIA 60 55 -5 14 27 239 1 111. Mike Williams , NYJ 36 29 -8 9 11 182 1 111. Mike Williams , PIT 21 28 7 9 6 120 0 112. Ja'Lynn Polk , NE 56 33 -24 15 16 268 2 113. Jalen Brooks , DAL 53 36 -17 14 15 265 2 114. DJ Turner , LV 52 47 -4 12 18 233 1 115. Robert Woods , HOU 51 38 -13 15 19 234 1 116. Nelson Agholor , BAL 50 49 -1 14 16 256 1 117. Rashee Rice , KC 49 65 16 4 25 214 0 118. Jahan Dotson , PHI 48 42 -6 17 19 240 1 119. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 47 53 6 14 18 194 2 120. Dante Pettis , NO 46 32 -14 8 18 196 1 121. Jordan Whittington , LAR 44 53 8 15 20 188 1 122. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 44 24 -21 16 15 212 1 123. Josh Reynolds , DEN 34 36 3 5 11 169 1 123. Josh Reynolds , JAX 9 2 -7 4 3 36 0 124. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 41 35 -7 17 17 169 1 125. Cedrick Wilson , NO 41 50 9 15 19 190 1 126. Mason Tipton , NO 40 24 -16 11 16 215 0 127. Ryan Miller , TB 38 37 -1 11 13 157 1 128. Bo Melton , GB 37 23 -15 17 9 165 1 129. Derius Davis , LAC 37 40 3 15 12 104 1 130. Trey Palmer , TB 37 35 -2 15 13 198 1 131. Kalif Raymond , DET 36 57 21 12 16 166 0 132. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 35 27 -8 8 14 185 0 133. Odell Beckham Jr. , MIA 34 15 -19 9 11 144 1 134. Simi Fehoko , LAC 32 17 -15 8 8 146 1 135. Jermaine Burton , CIN 31 15 -17 14 5 144 2 136. Devin Duvernay , JAX 31 19 -12 13 10 130 1 137. Mecole Hardman , KC 31 33 2 12 13 76 1 138. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 31 14 -16 16 10 186 0 139. Michael Woods II , CLE 30 14 -17 5 11 140 1 140. Jake Bobo , SEA 28 30 2 17 12 119 1 141. K.J. Osborn , NE 26 19 -7 7 9 118 1 141. K.J. Osborn , WAS 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 142. Trenton Irwin , CIN 26 5 -22 7 5 68 2 143. DeAndre Carter , CHI 26 14 -12 13 9 108 1 144. Jamison Crowder , WAS 26 26 1 6 9 102 1 145. Johnny Wilson , PHI 25 15 -11 16 7 103 1 146. Bub Means , NO 24 27 3 7 9 122 1 147. Marquise Brown , KC 23 18 -5 2 11 111 0 148. Malik Heath , GB 23 32 9 13 9 84 1 149. Chris Conley , SF 23 14 -9 15 7 121 1 150. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 22 32 10 17 7 108 1 151. Jalen Reagor , LAC 20 15 -6 8 6 97 0 152. Rakim Jarrett , TB 19 21 2 10 6 91 1 153. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 19 18 -1 11 9 94 0 154. Xavier Gipson , NYJ 19 14 -4 17 7 78 1 155. DJ Chark Jr. , LAC 18 13 -5 7 5 69 1 156. Ashton Dulin , IND 18 19 2 15 4 80 0 157. Zay Jones , ARI 17 16 -1 11 8 91 0 158. Tylan Wallace , BAL 16 36 20 17 9 73 0 159. Ainias Smith , PHI 16 18 2 7 6 55 0 160. Malachi Corley , NYJ 15 5 -10 9 4 42 1 161. Trent Sherfield , MIN 15 22 7 17 8 59 0 162. Brandon Powell , MIN 15 14 -1 17 6 83 0 163. Treylon Burks , TEN 15 8 -7 5 5 74 0 164. Tyquan Thornton , NE 15 9 -6 6 4 79 0 165. Bryce Oliver , TEN 14 16 1 10 6 76 0 166. River Cracraft , MIA 14 14 -1 8 6 64 0 167. Parris Campbell , PHI 14 15 1 5 6 47 0 168. Jacob Cowing , SF 14 11 -3 15 4 54 1 169. Scotty Miller , PIT 13 12 -1 13 6 71 0 170. Britain Covey , PHI 12 10 -2 5 6 42 0 171. Robbie Chosen , MIA 11 2 -9 2 3 33 1 172. Ronnie Bell , SF 10 4 -6 9 4 50 0 173. Jamari Thrash , CLE 10 5 -5 9 5 47 0
