Picture the boarding line at the airport.
They call Group 1, and here's the thing about Group 1, it does not matter one bit where in that group you're standing. First person or last, you're strolling on with your bag and your pick of the overhead bin. Everyone in the group is, functionally, the same.
Then they call Group 2 ... still totally fine, still getting your bag up top. Group 3, you're eyeing the bins nervously, but at least you're all in the same boat. Er, plane.
By the time they're calling Group 6, you're handing your carry-on to the gate agent and hoping to see it in the next time zone -- but so is everyone else in your group.
That drop, from group to group, real and steep, with near-total equality inside each group? That's a tier list. That's the whole idea. And that's how you should draft.
Here's why it saves you at a draft. Say you've got your eye on one guy, and the two picks ahead of you snap him and the player right next to him up. On a flat ranking, you panic. Scramble down to whatever's left with the clock screaming at you. But if you already knew those two were sitting in the same boarding group as three other players you rated just as highly? You don't flinch. You wave the next one aboard and you've lost nothing.
That's the magic -- you stop making 150 individual decisions and start making a handful of "anyone in this group is fine" ones. It's the same reason you don't need to stampede toward the jetway when your group is called. Everyone in it lands in the same place.
The fantasy forward groups below are mine. My projections, my drop-offs, my problem when I'm wrong. They aren't the official in-game ranks you'll see inside the ESPN Fantasy Hockey.
These come from my own projections: a base of each player's three-year average, a sprinkle of how comparable players the same age have fared across the past 15 seasons, and a dash of manual adjustment for the spots where my gut overrules the math. The projected ESPN standard points sit right next to each name below, so you can see exactly where I've got everyone slotted.
Note: Points based on the ESPN standard scoring system.
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Tier 1: Stroll aboard
1. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 237.9, last season: 263.5)
2. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 235.8, last season: 253.9)
3. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 232.5, last season: 237.0)
4. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 221.9, last season: 234.1)
Notes: There isn't a wrong answer here, but I would argue any other choice for a top-four pick would be. These four are just a little too great and/or reliable for Cale Makar or Evan Bouchard to touch them, and goaltenders aren't pushing into this stratosphere this season. Keep it simple, take whichever superstar comes your way.
Tier 2: Still overhead-bin safe
5. Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 203.6, last season: 207.5)
6. Matt Boldy, LW/RW, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 201.0, last season: 204.3)
7. Wyatt Johnston, C/RW, Dallas Stars: (projected: 200.1, last season: 205.7)
8. Martin Necas, RW, Avalanche: (projected: 198.8, last season: 192.1)
9. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild: (projected: 197.1, last season: 195.5)
10. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 197.0, last season: 153.3)
11. Leon Draisaitl, C, Oilers: (projected: 196.9, last season: 182.9)
12. Jason Robertson, LW, Stars: (projected: 193.3, last season: 212.7)
Notes: This tier is defined by the choice made to exclude players from Group 1. Any one of them, but especially Matthews, Draisaitl and Robertson, could make a play for the top of the list. Necas, of course, is reliant on his role as MacKinnon's sidekick, but there's no reason to suspect the Avs won't run back that dominant duo.
Tier 3: Now you're eyeing the bins
13. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW/RW, Canadiens: (projected: 186.9, last season: 184.5)
14. Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 183.9, last season: 194.8)
15. Tage Thompson, C/RW, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 183.0, last season: 193.1)
16. Dylan Guenther, RW, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 182.7, last season: 169.8)
17. Sam Reinhart, RW, Florida Panthers: (projected: 182.6, last season: 146.9)
18. Leo Carlsson, C, Anaheim Ducks: (projected: 180.0, last season: 141.7)
19. Jack Hughes, C/LW, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 176.0, last season: 155.7)
20. Dylan Holloway, LW/RW, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 174.5, last season: 126.6)
21. David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins: (projected: 173.7, last season: 196.3)
22. Aleksander Barkov, C, Panthers: (projected: 172.3, last season: DNP)
Notes: If you made a choice with your first pick to chase Makar, Bouchard or a goaltender, this is where you are going to be selecting your top forward. There are still great options, but you can begin to feel the step down from Group 1 when trying to envision your selection approaching the top five. The concept of a potential misfire exists here, too. This tier is where Brayden Point and J.T. Miller were hanging around last season. I will be the first to admit my projection system is in love with Holloway, but I believe in the numbers and am letting him stay here, even though it's probably a tad pushy. I had him high last season and, if not for the injury issues, I think it would have paid off. He had 2.59 FPPG in the 24 games after the Olympic break.
Tier 4: The big middle
23. Kyle Connor, LW, Jets: (projected: 171.6, last season: 182.5)
24. Brandon Hagel, LW, Lightning: (projected: 171.6, last season: 161.1)
25. Mikko Rantanen, LW/RW, Stars: (projected: 170.6, last season: 149.6)
26. Jake Guentzel, LW, Lightning: (projected: 170.6, last season: 187.8)
27. Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 170.5, last season: 150.2)
28. Cutter Gauthier, LW, Ducks: (projected: 170.5, last season: 164.2)
29. Logan Cooley, C, Mammoth: (projected: 169.5, last season: 102.1)
30. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 168.9, last season: 189.5)
31. Lucas Raymond, LW/RW, Red Wings: (projected: 168.7, last season: 150.6)
32. Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 168.7, last season: 182.0)
33. William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs: (projected: 167.3, last season: 149.9)
34. Robert Thomas, C, Blues: (projected: 166.3, last season: 128.7)
35. Dylan Larkin, C, Red Wings: (projected: 166.0, last season: 157.4)
36. Cole Caufield, LW, Canadiens: (projected: 165.4, last season: 194.9)
37. Tim Stutzle, C/LW, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 162.8, last season: 186.7)
38. Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, Blues: (projected: 161.8, last season: 120.0)
39. Filip Forsberg, LW, Nashville Predators: (projected: 161.2, last season: 181.5)
40. Kirill Marchenko, LW/RW, Blue Jackets: (projected: 160.6, last season: 153.8)
41. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Panthers: (projected: 160.2, last season: 139.1)
42. Connor Bedard, C/RW, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 158.5, last season: 154.7)
Notes: You should be getting your second or third forward from this group in your draft. For the most part, you are banking on consistent greatness, but not expecting a hard charge to the elite. That isn't true of all options though, as Bedard (once healthy), Eichel and Rantanen (who have each been top 10 fantasy forwards twice in their career) could reward trust. Fantilli, Gauthier, Snuggerud and Cooley are here on expectations.
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Tier 5: Talk yourself into it
43. Artemi Panarin, LW, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 157.8, last season: 154.9)
44. Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Panthers: (projected: 157.7, last season: 68.7)
45. Adrian Kempe, RW, Kings: (projected: 156.8, last season: 170.8)
46. Aliaksei Protas, LW, Washington Capitals: (projected: 156.7, last season: 119.1)
47. Clayton Keller, LW, Mammoth: (projected: 155.8, last season: 166.8)
48. Tom Wilson, RW, Capitals: (projected: 154.2, last season: 157.7)
49. Alex Laferriere, C/RW, Kings: (projected: 154.2, last season: 139.4)
50. Alex Tuch, RW, Capitals: (projected: 153.5, last season: 176.7)
51. Mitch Marner, RW, Golden Knights: (projected: 153.4, last season: 158.4)
52. Quinton Byfield, C, Kings: (projected: 152.4, last season: 125.6)
53. Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 152.2, last season: 127.9)
54. Bryan Rust, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 152.0, last season: 164.1)
55. Anton Frondell, C, Blackhawks: (projected: 150.6, last season: 23.9)
56. Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 150.4, last season: 151.4)
57. Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 150.3, last season: 160.8)
58. Mark Stone, RW, Golden Knights: (projected: 150.1, last season: 155.0)
59. Nico Hischier, C, Devils: (projected: 149.1, last season: 164.3)
60. William Eklund, LW, Senators: (projected: 148.9, last season: 126.3)
61. Ivan Demidov, RW, Canadiens: (projected: 148.1, last season: 119.5)
62. Gavin McKenna, W, Maple Leafs: (projected: 147.2, last season: DNP)
63. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Hurricanes: (projected: 146.4, last season: 158.7)
64. Ryan O'Reilly, C, Predators: (projected: 146.4, last season: 160.6)
65. Brad Marchand, LW/RW, Panthers: (projected: 146.2, last season: 116.4)
66. Egor Chinakhov, RW, Penguins: (projected: 145.7, last season: 100.4)
Notes: Now there is some serious risk showing up on the board, mingled with decreasing consistency. Aside from banking on the players like Kempe, Marner and Aho, you can find a way to convince yourself of most players falling short of expectations. But, it's equally true that you can conceive a path for them to pay off your risk. That's what makes drafts start to get fun here. I might be the minority on Marner, especially the way he showed up in the postseason. But his first campaign as a Golden Knight was the first time he's been below 2.0 FPPG since 2017-18. Not to mention the winger (Pavel Dorofeyev) that scored the goal on 15 of his 56 assists, and also assisted with him on six other goals, is gone.
Tier 6: Reunion tour
67. Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 145.0, last season: 187.5)
68. Vincent Trocheck, C, Mammoth: (projected: 143.8, last season: 133.1)
69. Anton Lundell, C, Panthers: (projected: 143.7, last season: 110.3)
70. Nick Schmaltz, C/RW, Mammoth: (projected: 143.6, last season: 166.5)
71. Matthew Knies, LW, Maple Leafs: (projected: 142.5, last season: 142.5)
72. Drake Batherson, LW/RW, Senators: (projected: 142.3, last season: 158.7)
73. Mikael Granlund, C/LW, Ducks: (projected: 140.6, last season: 101.4)
74. Sidney Crosby, C, Penguins: (projected: 139.5, last season: 151.5)
75. Alexis Lafreniere, LW/RW, Rangers: (projected: 139.2, last season: 134.2)
76. Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 139.0, last season: 143.2)
77. Owen Tippett, RW, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 138.4, last season: 147.6)
78. Mason McTavish, C, Blues: (projected: 138.3, last season: 104.0)
79. Brock Nelson, C, Avalanche: (projected: 138.0, last season: 162.3)
80. Anthony Cirelli, C, Lightning: (projected: 137.7, last season: 119.9)
81. Beckett Sennecke, RW, Ducks: (projected: 136.9, last season: 131.4)
82. Jesper Bratt, RW, Devils: (projected: 136.8, last season: 142.2)
83. Josh Doan, LW/RW, Sabres: (projected: 136.8, last season: 126.7)
84. Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Capitals: (projected: 136.7, last season: 151.3)
85. Vasily Podkolzin, LW/RW, Oilers: (projected: 135.0, last season: 121.6)
86. Pavel Dorofeyev, LW/RW, Rangers: (projected: 135.0, last season: 155.8)
87. Anthony Mantha, RW, Devils: (projected: 134.8, last season: 143.9)
88. Dylan Cozens, C/RW, Senators: (projected: 134.8, last season: 156.0)
89. Will Cuylle, LW, Rangers: (projected: 134.8, last season: 141.9)
90. Shane Wright, C, Kraken: (projected: 134.2, last season: 86.3)
91. Gabe Perreault, RW, Rangers: (projected: 133.7, last season: 62.7)
92. Gabriel Vilardi, RW, Jets: (projected: 133.7, last season: 145.4)
93. Matt Coronato, RW, Calgary Flames: (projected: 133.7, last season: 104.1)
94. Porter Martone, RW, Flyers: (projected: 133.4, last season: 21.8)
Notes: At some point we have to start fading the players in their late 30s early 40s even though they've defined generations. I've been writing fantasy hockey articles since Crosby and Ovechkin were drafted. It's hard to envision a world in which they aren't on the board. Luckily, we aren't there yet. Crosby, Ovechkin and Zibanejad still have a path to value, even if they are on the wrong side of the age curve. Very wrong side. Lafreniere posted 2.02 FPPG post-Olympic break, once Panarin was gone. Coronato represents the first representative from the Flames, making them the final team to make an appearance on the projections. Martone is projected based on a middle ground between his 10 amazing games in the regular season and his 10 okay games in the playoffs. But if he hits closer to that regular season high, look out.
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Tier 7: Gate-checked
95. Matt Savoie, RW, Oilers: (projected: 133.1, last season: 93.2)
96. Ryan Leonard, RW, Capitals: (projected: 132.4, last season: 112.2)
97. Shane Pinto, C/RW, Senators: (projected: 132.2, last season: 123.6)
98. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Hurricanes: (projected: 131.9, last season: 146.2)
99. Rickard Rakell, LW/RW, Penguins: (projected: 131.5, last season: 126.1)
100. Dylan Strome, C, Capitals: (projected: 130.1, last season: 129.4)
101. Kent Johnson, LW/RW, Blue Jackets: (projected: 129.1, last season: 61.8)
102. Will Smith, RW, Sharks: (projected: 129.1, last season: 115.7)
103. Marco Rossi, C, Canucks: (projected: 129.0, last season: 79.8)
104. Frank Nazar, C, Blackhawks: (projected: 127.6, last season: 101.5)
105. Tyson Foerster, LW/RW, Flyers: (projected: 127.2, last season: 53.3)
106. Matt Duchene, C/LW, Stars: (projected: 126.8, last season: 91.3)
107. Danila Yurov, C, Wild: (projected: 126.7, last season: 76.1)
108. Jack Quinn, RW, Sabres: (projected: 126.4, last season: 113.3)
109. Tomas Hertl, C, Golden Knights: (projected: 126.4, last season: 148.7)
110. Alexander Wennberg, C, Sharks: (projected: 126.1, last season: 139.7)
111. Ivar Stenberg, W, Sharks: (projected: 125.6, last season: DNP)
112. Morgan Geekie, LW/RW, Bruins: (projected: 125.1, last season: 165.1)
113. Sam Bennett, C, Panthers: (projected: 124.9, last season: 138.6)
114. JJ Peterka, RW, Bruins: (projected: 124.7, last season: 101.5)
115. J.T. Miller, C/LW, Rangers: (projected: 123.5, last season: 123.7)
116. Matvei Gridin, RW, Flames: (projected: 123.4, last season: 51.7)
117. Zach Hyman, RW, Oilers: (projected: 123.4, last season: 121.0)
118. Zach Benson, LW, Sabres: (projected: 122.8, last season: 86.0)
Notes: Your choices at this stage should start being the inverse style of what you did earlier. Did you take some calculated risks at the start of the draft with your forwards? Then play it safer with a Ehlers, Rakell or Hyman type of selection. They have upside, but also a very solid floor for production. Did you go for consistency early? Then take a swing now with Savoie, Johnson or Stenberg. You have a good baseline established and can afford to miss. Some line assignments will matter a lot here, too. Does Yurov get forced up to the top of the Wild depth chart? Does Peterka get power-play time with Pasta? Savoie with McDavid? Benson with Thompson?
Tier 8: Last-minute standby
119. Elias Lindholm, C, Bruins: (projected: 121.8, last season: 119.9)
120. Ivan Barbashev, LW, Knights: (projected: 121.1, last season: 131.5)
121. Brayden Point, C/RW, Lightning: (projected: 120.8, last season: 98.6)
122. Ben Kindel, C/RW, Penguins: (projected: 120.6, last season: 104.4)
123. Jackson Blake, RW, Hurricanes: (projected: 119.5, last season: 116.6)
124. Mathew Barzal, C/RW, Islanders: (projected: 119.5, last season: 147.2)
125. Parker Kelly, LW/RW, Avalanche: (projected: 119.2, last season: 113.5)
126. Morgan Frost, C, Flames: (projected: 119.2, last season: 112.5)
127. Blake Coleman, RW, Wild: (projected: 119.2, last season: 114.3)
128. Alex Newhook, C/LW, Canadiens: (projected: 119.0, last season: 58.9)
129. Trevor Zegras, C/LW, Flyers: (projected: 118.8, last season: 139.8)
130. Kiefer Sherwood, LW/RW, Sharks: (projected: 118.7, last season: 131.6)
131. Pavel Zacha, C, Bruins: (projected: 118.7, last season: 138.4)
132. Simon Holmstrom, RW, Islanders: (projected: 118.0, last season: 98.1)
133. Brock Boeser, RW, Canucks: (projected: 117.6, last season: 115.0)
134. Nazem Kadri, C/LW, Avalanche: (projected: 117.1, last season: 116.8)
135. Bobby Brink, RW, Wild: (projected: 116.9, last season: 86.4)
136. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Wild: (projected: 116.6, last season: 125.0)
137. Ryan Poehling, C, Ducks: (projected: 116.5, last season: 106.3)
138. Emil Heineman, LW/RW, Islanders: (projected: 116.0, last season: 124.1)
139. Alex Steeves, RW, Bruins: (projected: 116.0, last season: 60.4)
140. Zack Bolduc, LW, Canadiens: (projected: 115.5, last season: 93.8)
141. Logan Stankoven, C, Hurricanes: (projected: 115.2, last season: 102.1)
142. Matvei Michkov, RW, Flyers: (projected: 115.1, last season: 106.0)
143. Justin Brazeau, RW, Penguins: (projected: 114.7, last season: 94.7)
144. Seth Jarvis, RW, Hurricanes: (projected: 114.3, last season: 155.5)
145. Travis Konecny, RW, Flyers: (projected: 113.8, last season: 149.6)
146. Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Blackhawks: (projected: 113.7, last season: 134.4)
147. James Hagens, C, Bruins: (projected: 113.6, last season: 1.3)
148. Oliver Kapanen, C, Canadiens: (projected: 113.3, last season: 111.3)
149. Caleb Desnoyers, C, Mammoth: (projected: 112.8, last season: DNP)
150. Connor McMichael, C, Blues: (projected: 112.8, last season: 104.2)
Notes: A 12-team league will have 10 forwards starting (nine forward spots plus a utility), so this is all about bench upside now. You could run your own projections or look at other rankings online and find almost none of these players among another top 150. It's subjective down here.
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