So we're through three weeks of the NFL season, and we don't know anything. And that's not an overreaction.
What in the name of John Madden happened on Sunday afternoon? The Seahawks gave up 33 points and lost to the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders? The Bills turned the ball over five times and still won? The stuck-in-the-mud Steelers rolled up 411 yards of offense to beat the red-hot, revamped Bengals defense? The Browns improved to 2-1?
Just when you think you can start to make sense of this season, you check the standings and wonder what's up with the 0-3 Chargers, 0-3 Texans, 1-2 Patriots, 2-1 Giants and the entire NFC West.
It's a reminder that it's still too early to draw any real conclusions about how this season is going to go and that so much of what we think we know is actually an overreaction. Which is the fun part, after all, right?
It's our Week 3 overreactions column, where we look at five potential takeaways and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational overreactions. Plus, we hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom.
Jump to:
Purdy is the next NFL MVP?
Giants are just fine with Jameis at QB?
The Steelers will avoid a losing season again?
Todd Monken will be Coach of the Year?
Mendoza isn't playing anytime soon?
Fantasy overreactions
Brock Purdy should be the MVP favorite right now
Has any quarterback in the league been more efficient through the first three weeks? Purdy has completed 72.3% of his passes for an average of 263 passing yards per game. He has thrown for nine touchdowns and one interception. He has rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. The 49ers are bleeding wide receivers due to injury, and Purdy is just out there dicing up defenses like it's nothing.
His team is 3-0 with two division wins, including that opener in Australia against everybody's offseason darlings, the Rams. The last pick in the 2022 draft has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and right now it's hard to find anyone playing the position any better.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Oh, there are other candidates. Lamar Jackson just finished doing his thing in Rio. Patrick Mahomes will surely be in the conversation if the Chiefs keep it up. Josh Allen is also there, but he had a rough one Sunday despite Buffalo's win. Trevor Lawrence has been awesome in two out of three games. But no one makes a stronger case right now than Purdy, who just tied Steve Young's 49ers team record for most touchdown passes in the first three games of a season. The Niners haven't scored this many points in their first three games since 1998, which was the year Young did that. And he had Jerry Rice!
The Giants are going to be fine with Jameis Winston at quarterback
One of the bummer developments this past week was the Giants losing quarterback Jaxson Dart to a season-ending injury. After Winston's dreadful performance in relief during Monday night's loss to the Rams, the Giants spent a good part of last week discussing potential outside options while preparing Winston to start. He started Sunday and helped beat the woeful Titans in an ugly 12-7 slopfest.
He did not light up the stat sheet, but he also didn't turn the ball over, which is always a massive win with Winston. And considering the game took place during the tail end of a rainy, windy nor'easter, it would have been tough for Dart or anyone else to look much better in those conditions. Winston and the Giants needed to come out of Sunday with any type of win, and they accomplished that. They're 2-1 through three games, which isn't a bad place to be.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from what we saw Sunday. The Giants ran the ball fine, which they'll have to continue to do, but the run game won't be as dynamic without the threat of Dart's legs. Winston has been in the league for 12 seasons now. There is no mystery about the type of player he is. He'll have one or two brilliant games followed by classic postgame on-field interviews. He'll have games where he throws the ball to the other team all day.
He has settled into a role as an excellent backup and mentor, but those guys aren't supposed to give you 15 games. They're supposed to get you through three or four until the starter comes back. Winning on Sunday shouldn't change whatever the Giants are doing to find another QB option, and I don't believe it will.
The Steelers' streak of .500-or-better seasons will continue
Pittsburgh hasn't had a losing season since 2003. That's a stunning 22-year streak that comprises the final three seasons of Bill Cowher's head coaching tenure and Mike Tomlin's entire 19-year run. The decision to hire Mike McCarthy as coach and bring back 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers at quarterback this season led many (including myself!) to wonder whether 2026 would be the end of that streak and if the run was truly a product of Tomlin magic. A lackluster performance in the Steelers' Week 1 victory over the Falcons and a complete dud in Week 2 against the Patriots backed up that suspicion, and the Steelers were home underdogs Sunday to the division rival Bengals, who were 2-0 and flying as high as any team in the league entering Week 3.
But a funny thing happened. The Steelers spent the week working on fixing their run game. They had meetings where the offensive linemen and the running backs hashed out why they weren't seeing plays the same way. They switched out the starting offensive linemen on the right side. They came out aggressively and scored touchdowns on their first two drives. Jaylen Warren had 127 rushing yards on 17 carries. Pittsburgh was opportunistic, turning two Bengals punt misplays into 10 second-half points. And the Steelers won a classic, topsy-turvy AFC North game 30-27 to improve to 2-1.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I mean, McCarthy's coaching résumé tells us a winning season is more likely than not. And while Rodgers isn't the player he used to be, he fits the Steelers' opportunistic mindset. Just ask the Falcons and Bengals what happens if you give Pittsburgh a chance to beat you. The schedule looks daunting, and not just because of the division the Steelers play in. They still have road games in Cleveland (on Thursday), Tampa, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Jacksonville and Baltimore; home games against the Browns, Ravens and Broncos; and a game against the Saints in Paris.
But they also have two wins in their pocket that they kind of had no business picking up, they'll probably continue to get better on offense, and they still look like the type of team that can keep games close before stealing them in the end. That's a pretty good recipe for winning more games than you lose.
Todd Monken will win Coach of the Year
The Browns beat the Panthers on Sunday to improve to 2-1. They did so behind another spectacularly average performance by Deshaun Watson, who is Cleveland's starting quarterback because, quite frankly, it is stuck with him. The Browns were outgained by more than 100 yards, making them 3-for-3 in games in which they gained fewer yards than their opponents. Their leading receiver, tight end Harold Fannin Jr., had 51 yards. Their leading rusher, Quinshon Judkins, had 70.
Cleveland is starting two rookie wide receivers, a second-year tight end and a second-year running back around a quarterback who hasn't been good since 2020. It has a stellar defense, despite trading away the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, due to outstanding drafting and development on that side of the ball. And if the Browns beat the Steelers on Thursday night, they will be 3-1 and in first place in their division.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
You do not have to sanction the Browns' insistence on starting Watson to appreciate the job Monken is doing in his first season as a head coach. If anything, being saddled with that wreck of a quarterback situation and managing to go 2-1 in September is a feather in his cap. For much of training camp and the preseason, Monken was insisting things about his offense and his quarterbacks in news conferences that didn't make a lot of sense to those of us who aren't there every day. But it seems clear that he's making sense inside the building.
He seems to have control of a situation that so many of his predecessors have not been able to control. It feels as if Monken is setting the right tone for the players and getting the most out of what he has so far. It isn't pretty, but it would be hard to be pretty with what Monken has to work with. So far, this is a guy making the most of a long-awaited chance at his dream job, and he appears to be in command on a level that is surprising to most. If the Browns finish with a winning record and make the playoffs, I can't see how the coach of the year race is even close.
Fernando Mendoza won't start for the Raiders until 2027
The Raiders are 3-0! The Raiders! This was not supposed to be a good team. Kirk Cousins was supposed to be keeping the seat warm for the No. 1 pick until the team got itself in decent enough shape to help Mendoza be great. But so far ... the Raiders look like they're in pretty good shape.
Cousins led them to a victory over the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday and has matched Purdy with nine touchdown passes in the first three games. The offensive line looks better than expected. Some young guys on defense are making plays. And Sunday was the first time all season the Raiders have had their best offensive player, tight end Brock Bowers. They could get even better! Why mess with what's working?
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This is a really fun story, but are you banking on it lasting? The Raiders' next four opponents are the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. Las Vegas might turn out to be one of this season's surprise teams, and the future certainly looks bright around Mendoza whenever he does get in there. But no one really expects him to sit for the whole year unless the Raiders just keep winning and stay in first place. And that's going to be a lot tougher than what they've accomplished so far.
We'll see Mendoza at some point this season. It just won't be as soon as most people imagined it would be. Good on Cousins, Klint Kubiak and the whole Raiders organization for that.
Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions
Matthew Golden needs to be in your lineup every week. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I'm a Christian Watson truther, and obviously he needs to be in your lineup every week, too. But Golden looks like at least a strong 1B to Watson's 1A right now. And what are the Packers going to do? Run the ball?
Marcus Mariota is a viable streaming QB with Jayden Daniels out. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Why not? Washington faces a less-than-scary Colts defense next week. The Giants after that? Meh. The 49ers in Week 6 with maybe no Nick Bosa? That's not that daunting. But even if the matchups looked tough, Mariota just threw three touchdown passes against the Seahawks! Mariota can run this offense and get the ball to Terry McLaurin. You could do worse.
Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers need to be on the bench with Jaxson Dart out. OVERREACTION. They're still super talented players who are a big part of the Giants' plans, and Jameis Winston has supported fantasy-viable receiving options throughout his career. Sunday's game was a rainy mess. Don't let it deter you.
You can drop Jadarian Price like he keeps dropping the ball. OVERREACTION. Price was the Seahawks' first-round pick, and Zach Charbonnet will remain out for a while. Seattle might not fully trust Price yet, and you might want to keep him on your bench, but don't drop him. Trade him to me!
Jordan Addison is a WR1 if Justin Jefferson misses time. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Addison will be a WR2 on his most pedestrian days, and his big-play ability can vault him to WR1 status at any minute. He is the classic "it only takes one play" fantasy asset.
