The NBA season tips off Tuesday with some new-look teams hoping to ride their new superstars to a championship, while some recent powers are hoping to stay on top.
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder enter the season as co-favorites, listed at +270 at DraftKings. The defending champions New York Knicks are +900, along with the revamped Philadelphia 76ers.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings are the biggest long shots at 1,000-1.
Spurs' star Victor Wembanyama is the favorite to win MVP (+205 at DraftKings), with Luka Doncic (+475) and Nikola Jokic (+650) behind him.
Looking around the rest of the league, here are some of the biggest betting storylines entering the season.
Books 'front-loaded' on Philly
In late July, BetMGM oddsmaker Christian Cipollini glanced down at the ticker showing all the NBA bets being placed, one after another, all on the same team.
"Every single one of them was on the 76ers," Cipollini said.
LeBron James announcing he was headed to Philadelphia triggered the rush of Sixers bets on Cipollini's ticker. The trade for Jaylen Brown a few weeks earlier also caused a flurry of betting interest on the 76ers at BetMGM, and the action on the new-look Sixers hasn't slowed much.
Philadelphia accounts for 37.6% of the money that has been bet on BetMGM's title odds entering the week. That's more than has been bet on the Knicks, Spurs, Thunder, Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers combined.
"The Sixers will of course be one of the most popular teams this year ... [we] just got front-loaded with action [on the Sixers]," Cipollini said. "I think it'll smooth out a bit as the season goes."
Miami made the other big offseason splash by landing Giannis Antetokounmpo and has seen support from bettors, mostly in Florida.
"The NBA has 30 teams, but right now, two are attracting more than twice as much championship money as the other 28 combined," Hard Rock Bet spokesperson Jon Chapper told ESPN. "Philadelphia and Miami are taking $7 out of every $10 wagered with us on the title in straight bets alone. That's a remarkable concentration of interest before the season has even tipped off, and it shows just how much excitement a few blockbuster offseason moves can generate."
Hard Rock Bet is the only licensed sportsbook in Florida, so location is playing a big role in the interest in the Heat, who are around 30-1 to win the title. For example, Miami is fourth in total money wagered at DraftKings behind the 76ers, Spurs and Knicks.
Three NBA betting bullet points
12.43: The average margin of victory in regular-season games over the past five seasons.
9.12: The average difference between the margin of victory and closing point spread in games over the past five seasons.
227.57: Games have averaged 227.57 total points over the past five regular seasons.
How oddsmakers approach 'superteams' early on
The 2010 Heat brought in James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade before the season, forming one of the first superteams in the NBA. But it took a little bit for the team to jell.
Miami went 12-8 in its first 20 games with its enhanced starting five before finding its groove. The Heat finished the regular season at 58-24 and reached the Finals before falling to the Dallas Mavericks.
The 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets featuring Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden went 12-8 in their first 20 games after Durant returned from injury in December 2020.
Six years later, oddsmakers are trying to figure out how long it will take the new-look 76ers to come together.
Jeff Sherman, a veteran Las Vegas bookmaker and respected NBA oddsmaker, believes the 76ers could start slowly with Brown and James adjusting to playing with each other and pointed to the line on Philadelphia's opening game at the New York Knicks on Tuesday. The Knicks were 5.5-point favorites over the 76ers entering the week.
"I think the line is a little bit higher than what we would expect to see later in the season, um, under the same circumstances," Sherman, now with Circa Sports, said. "It takes time for these teams to, to get that chemistry built, and that's factored into what you see early in the point spreads."
David Lieberman, NBA oddsmaker for Caesars Sportsbook, said they move futures odds aggressively in the offseason when stars are acquired.
"They often receive heavy betting action with the hype surrounding the moves," Lieberman told ESPN. "The Sixers and Heat took a lot of futures action this offseason, and I expect them to continue to be popular bettingwise throughout the season.
"Once the games start though, we will likely scale back some of the aggressiveness and get a feel for how the teams jell," he added.
Four more betting bullet points
Stats from past five regular seasons via TeamRankings.com.
Best ATS teams
1. Thunder 58.0%
2. Celtics 54.1%
3. Raptors 52.3%
Worst ATS teams
1. Wizards 43.4%
2. Hawks 45.7%
3. Nets 46.8%
Top over teams
1. Jazz 55.4%
2. Hawks 54.8%
3. Thunder 53.5%
Top under teams
1. Hornets 55.8%
2. Nets 53.5%
3. Celtics 53.0%
Bettors love Jazz, Hawks win totals
Sherman, the veteran NBA oddsmaker with Circa, believes Utah could be a surprise team this season. Evidently, so do bettors.
Circa was one of multiple sportsbooks that reported one-sided support on the Jazz's over, which opened around 34.5 but has been bet up to 36.5 at DraftKings. At BetMGM, 99% of the money bet on the Jazz's win total was on the over and Caesars Sportsbook also reported over action on Utah.
"Some of the teams we've seen the most one-way action on so far have been the Jazz over, Lakers over and the Bucks over," Lieberman said. "We've bumped them all up a bit. Jazz are up two wins from the original number."
The Atlanta Hawks' over also has been a popular choice for bettors. The Hawks opened at 42.5 and have bet up to 43.5 at BetMGM, where 96% of the money wagered has been on the over.
