The last time we saw Jordy Nelson on the field, he was coming off a 98-catch, 1,519-yard, 13-touchdown season. We haven’t seen him practice since he tore his ACL the following preseason. But it's not the ACL knee that's delayed his return; he injured his other knee this offseason while working out. It’s been nearly 12 months since Nelson practiced, and although the Green Bay Packers hope to have him for the season opener, there’s no way to know whether Nelson will be back to his old form. At this point, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams still look like the next two receivers in line, despite what appears to be a deeper receiver group this year.
Nelson’s ESPN Fantasy Projection: 80.6 catches, 1,216 yards, 8.4 touchdowns.
Over or under: If it takes Nelson a while to get back to being his old self, then those would be ambitious numbers. Nelson has topped the 80-catch match only twice in his career, so the under is more likely there. As for the yards, he’s gone over that total three times but again, that seems ambitious. The touchdown total is the only one we’ll go over on. He’s had eight or more touchdowns in three of the past four seasons he’s played.
Cobb
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 79.3 catches, 942 yards, 6.9 touchdowns.
Over or under: Cobb seems determined to have a better season than last year, when he had 79 catches for 829 yards and six touchdowns. But he needs a healthy Nelson to take some of the defensive attention away from him. Still, he’s a security blanket for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, so take the over on the receptions. But a lot of his plays are in the short area, so go under on the yards. He’s not a huge red-zone target, either, so take the under on the touchdowns.
Adams
ESPN Fantasy Projection: 36.3 catches, 413.2 yards, 3.7 touchdowns
Over or under: Adams is too talented and too focused on putting last season’s disappointment behind him to have numbers that low. Even in what was considered a down season last year, he still caught 50 passes for 483 yards. So take the over on both, but go with the under on the touchdowns.
Who else could see time: Jared Abbrederis and Ty Montgomery could make a push for the No. 3 spot, but Jeff Janis seems unlikely to do so after a slow start to camp followed by a broken hand. Rookie Trevor Davis might have a tough time cracking the lineup for more than just spot duty.
