JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Wide receiver is the Jacksonville Jaguars' deepest and most talented position group and it’s the biggest reason why the offense has the potential to be among the league’s most potent units. The Jaguars have players who can go down the field, work the middle and take a short pass and turn it into a big gain.
ESPN Fantasy projection: 75.9 catches, 1,214.1 yards, 8 TDs
Over or under: I’m taking the over on all three. That sounds unreasonable but here’s why it’s not: Robinson is actually a better receiver now than he was in 2015, when he caught 80 passes for 1,400 yards and a franchise-record 14 TDs. He has worked on becoming a better route runner, especially with shorter and intermediate routes. He’s still going to have his share of back-shoulder and did-you-see-that catches, but he’s more of a complete receiver now. I don’t buy the argument that because he’ll be double-teamed and the focal point of defenses, his numbers will drop. Elite receivers deal with that all the time and that hasn't keep guys like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Antonio Brown from putting up big numbers. And yes, Robinson is an elite receiver.
ESPN Fantasy projection: 58 catches, 800.2 yards, 5.6 TDs
Over or under: This is a tough call, but I’m taking the under on the catches and yards but the over on the TDs. This is not a reflection on Hurns at all. He’s still the Jaguars’ second-best receiver and one of their most reliable and consistent players. However, a healthy Julius Thomas (he missed the first month of the 2015 season) and the expected emergence of Marqise Lee or Rashad Greene as the slot receiver will take some targets away from Hurns. That doesn’t mean Hurns won’t find the end zone a lot, though. He has 16 touchdown catches in two seasons and averages a touchdown pass every seven receptions. Let’s not forget that Hurns made the best and most important catch of the Jaguars’ 2015 season when he caught the game-winning TD pass against Buffalo. He’s a guy Blake Bortles trusts immensely. It’s just that someone has to lose work because of those other guys and I think it’s going to be Hurns.
Marqise Lee
ESPN Fantasy projection: 16 catches, 178.8 yards, 1.3 TDs
Over or under: Over, over, over. Lee hasn’t produced much during his first two seasons (52 catches for 613 yards and two TDs) but it’s because he has battled hamstring injuries. He missed three games as a rookie and six games last year. However, he was healthy in the spring and was the Jaguars’ most impressive offensive player. He had a slight hamstring strain on the first day of camp and in the past that would have set him back a month, but he was back on the field in 12 days and played well in the preseason opener. When talking about Lee, the “if he stays healthy” caveat always applies, but there’s a belief inside the building that Lee will stay healthy because he has done a good job training and preparing his body. He should easily surpass the projections.
Rashad Greene
ESPN Fantasy projection: 34.9 catches, 299.5 yards, 2.7 TDs
Over or under: Greene had an unusual rookie season and not because of the thumb injury that cost him seven games. He made a huge impact as a punt returner but averaged only 4.9 yards per catch on 19 receptions. He’s fighting with Lee to be the No. 3 receiver and Lee has been very impressive. If Lee stays healthy, Greene may be a year away from being a significant contributor on offense. Take the under on all three.
Who else could see time: Bryan Walters is coming off the best year of his career (32 catches, 386 yards, one TD) and seems to have the No. 5 spot locked up. He catches everything and runs good routes and that makes him great injury insurance, but it would be a bit of a surprise if he approached last year’s stats.
