FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- The New England Patriots are preparing to play their 26th game since 2010 without tight end Rob Gronkowski when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Monday night.
The Patriots are 20-5 in those games, including 9-0 since the start of the 2016 season. Their last loss without Gronkowski was in the 13th week of the 2015 season against the Philadelphia Eagles.
So how much will Gronkowski’s absence truly hurt?
It obviously doesn’t help, especially given the Dolphins’ struggles to cover tight ends, but as the numbers reflect it isn’t anything the Patriots shouldn’t be able to overcome, especially if receiver Chris Hogan (he's getting closer as he recovers from a shoulder injury) returns to action and the two-headed rushing attack of Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead keeps building positive momentum.
Quarterback Tom Brady’s statistics have dipped slightly without Gronkowski, but they are still strong -- a completion percentage of 66 with Gronkowski on the field, and 62 without him. Brady averages 8 yards per attempt with Gronkowski, and 7 without him.
Gronkowski is coming off season highs in targets (11), receptions (9) and receiving yards (147) in Sunday’s win over the Buffalo Bills, and the Patriots don’t have a No. 2 tight end who can come close to duplicating that type of production. But Dwayne Allen, who is behind Gronkowski on the depth chart and has five catches for 40 yards this season, contributes in other ways (mostly as a high-level blocker).
“Dwayne’s had a very solid role for us all year long. He’s played a lot of football, and I’m sure he’ll continue to play a lot of football for us,” coach Bill Belichick said. Dwayne works hard. He does what we ask him to do. He tries his best to do it the way that we ask him to do it. Some things are different than the way he was taught to do them in the past, but he’s been very open and receptive to trying to do what the team needs him to do on any particular play or situation or technique or whatever it happens to be.
“So he’s been a great guy to have on the team. He’s got a great attitude, he’s willing to do anything that we’ve asked him to do to help the football team, and you can’t ask for any more than that.”
The last time the Patriots were without Gronkowski, in a Week 5 win at Tampa Bay this season (a Thursday night game didn’t give Gronkowski enough time to recover from a thigh injury), Allen played a season-high 50 snaps.
He can expect a similar workload against the Dolphins, with undrafted rookie Jacob Hollister bumped to No. 2 on the depth chart (Will Tye is another option if coaches felt it best to promote him from the practice squad). Fullback James Develin, who meets and works out with the tight ends, also could see an increase in snaps.
But the Patriots also could tap their assets in other areas, using more three-receiver packages, or two-running backs packages -- part of their identity is morphing their attack into something new on a weekly basis.
Usually Gronkowski is on the field for almost every snap, so now they’ll have to work around it, which they have 25 games of experience to fall back on as they put together their game-plan.
